Aandeel SBM Offshore AEX:SBMO.NL, NL0000360618

quote:

Doemaarnormaal! schreef op 25 maart 2014 15:26:

Koersherstel is niet op zijn plaats. Met een beetje research kom je erachter dat die omkoopschandalen veel vaker en breder voorkomen dan tot nu toe is voorgespiegeld. Het probleem wordt juist onderschat en ik verwacht een nog veel grotere daling als verdere details naar buiten komen. De echte klap komt nog.

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Dicall69 schreef op 25 maart 2014 15:28:

[...]

Gewoon vast blijven houden aan die wetendheid de koers gaat richting de € 15,- !!!

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Doemaarnormaal! schreef op 25 maart 2014 15:37:

Ik wens je er veel succes mee. Naar de 15 euro is echt totaal niet realistisch. Geen enkele reden om zo'n koersdoel aan te houden op dit moment, met deze trend en met deze achtergrondinformatie.

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Doemaarnormaal! schreef op 25 maart 2014 15:37:

Ik wens je er veel succes mee. Naar de 15 euro is echt totaal niet realistisch. Geen enkele reden om zo'n koersdoel aan te houden op dit moment, met deze trend en met deze achtergrondinformatie.

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Bache schreef op 25 maart 2014 15:53:

Heerlijk leesmateriaal!

1.5. SBM Offshore – Market discounts overly negative fine scenario
SBM’s share price reacted strongly negatively since the start of February on recent developments in the bribery case. A former employee suggested on Wikipedia that some USD 250m in bribery payments were made, including some USD 137m to people related to Petrobras. Partly as a result of these allegations, Petrobras became the subject of a political battle between the Brazilian government and the opposition in the run-up to the general elections. Investors now fear that the bribery case will impact SBMs commercial possibilities in Brazil. Furthermore, they fear that the fine in this case could be very substantial. Consequently SBMs market cap lost 20% of its value, representing a nominal amount of USD 814m. We believe this reaction is severely overdone. The allegations of the disgruntled former employee – who initially tried to bribe the company – have not been substantiated and have been completely taken out of context, in our view. Petrobras has also been involved in this investigation from the start two years ago. Consequently, we believe that the outcome of the 30-day investigation initiated by Petrobras on the back of the mounting political pressure will result in nothing. This will likely clear SBM in this country, further limiting any commercial damage. In addition, we note that expectations of the market regarding a potential fine are far too high. In addition, we believe the Balance Sheet can easily absorb a fine of up to USD 530m before they hit any balance sheet covenants. Overall, we believe expectations are at rock bottom, downside risks appear to be limited, while we expect positive newsflow from Petrobras soon.
SBM has made quite some efforts to assist the regulators
Newswires report consensus sees a USD415m fine, while we expect a fine below USD100m. We fail to see why the Dutch prosecutor (OM) who is in the lead in this investigation, has any incentive to be too harsh considering that SBM proactively addressed the issue itself. It paid for whole investigation (forensic accountants, lawyers etc) itself for two consecutive years. SBM fired 60% of top 100 personnel including the man responsible (Laures). SBM hired a Chief Compliance Officer in the board to make sure a cultural change is embedded. Finally, SBM completely changed the way it works. Another way of looking at this case is trying to make a guestimate of the downside. We believe there are no reasons to assume the fine is going to be as high as rumoured. In particular, as other / similar cases were much worse or had lower fines. Several comparable cases include:
a) Rabo bank Libor case with a EUR 774m fine of which EUR 70m to the OM, USD 325m of the DoJ and USD 475m to the CFTC. b) Modec in Ghana: no penalty as the USD 5.0m payments to the former CEO of the National Oil Company might have been morally incorrect, but were not illegal. c) Weatherford paid a USD 253m fine for bribing foreign officials and conducting business with nations such as Iran, Syria, Sudan and Cuba. Weatherford’s penalty was partly as high as it is, because the company willingly obstructed the investigation of the DoJ, which lasted for several years d) Total which was charged USD 398m for bribing Iranian officials.
SBM is not able to be specific about the details of the bribery case as the case is still ongoing. However, reading in between the lines, we believe the Modec case is very comparable to SBMs case, which further limits any commercial impact (the only competitor did the same thing SBM). The first step towards normalisation for SBM is the Petrobras investigation, which is due shortly (to be finished end of March early April). Finally, we look at the gap between a normal valuation and the current share price. The lease fleet is worth EUR 18 per share. Each euro difference represents a gap or ‘fine’ of USD 270m. This implies there is a discount of close to USD 1.8bn on the current share price, which we believe is far too high. Even if a penalty needs to be paid, we believe the balance sheet can handle this. SBM has no liquidity constraints. Also solvency stood at 30% at YE13 (covenant > 25%) and although detailed calculations are complicated (SWAPs etc), we believe the company can absorb a fine of up to USD 530m before they hit the covenants. So expectations are extremely low, while the valuation discount is abnormally large, which gives an excellent risk / reward balance, in our view.
SBM Offshore (BUY, TP EUR 18)

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Mr. Blok schreef op 25 maart 2014 16:13:

11.8€, overname op komst?????

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beterwisdanonwis schreef op 25 maart 2014 16:08:

We zijn nu op de koers van net na het Quote bericht, toen zijn er massa's mensen short gegaan rekenend op een verdere daling. Koers rond de 11,75 is cruciaal voor de komende week en eens kijken hoeveel shorters hun positie verlaten en of/wat voor effect dat op de koers heeft. Ik kan me voorstellen dat er nu mensen gaan switchen naar een long positie (beter ten halve gekeerd dan ten hele gedwaald) en dat geeft wellicht een extra koersboost. Of gebeurt dit al terwijl ik dit tik.
Positie in SBMO en HAL

quote:

Bache schreef op 25 maart 2014 15:53:

Heerlijk leesmateriaal!

1.5. SBM Offshore – Market discounts overly negative fine scenario
SBM’s share price reacted strongly negatively since the start of February on recent developments in the bribery case. A former employee suggested on Wikipedia that some USD 250m in bribery payments were made, including some USD 137m to people related to Petrobras. Partly as a result of these allegations, Petrobras became the subject of a political battle between the Brazilian government and the opposition in the run-up to the general elections. Investors now fear that the bribery case will impact SBMs commercial possibilities in Brazil. Furthermore, they fear that the fine in this case could be very substantial. Consequently SBMs market cap lost 20% of its value, representing a nominal amount of USD 814m. We believe this reaction is severely overdone. The allegations of the disgruntled former employee – who initially tried to bribe the company – have not been substantiated and have been completely taken out of context, in our view. Petrobras has also been involved in this investigation from the start two years ago. Consequently, we believe that the outcome of the 30-day investigation initiated by Petrobras on the back of the mounting political pressure will result in nothing. This will likely clear SBM in this country, further limiting any commercial damage. In addition, we note that expectations of the market regarding a potential fine are far too high. In addition, we believe the Balance Sheet can easily absorb a fine of up to USD 530m before they hit any balance sheet covenants. Overall, we believe expectations are at rock bottom, downside risks appear to be limited, while we expect positive newsflow from Petrobras soon.
SBM has made quite some efforts to assist the regulators
Newswires report consensus sees a USD415m fine, while we expect a fine below USD100m. We fail to see why the Dutch prosecutor (OM) who is in the lead in this investigation, has any incentive to be too harsh considering that SBM proactively addressed the issue itself. It paid for whole investigation (forensic accountants, lawyers etc) itself for two consecutive years. SBM fired 60% of top 100 personnel including the man responsible (Laures). SBM hired a Chief Compliance Officer in the board to make sure a cultural change is embedded. Finally, SBM completely changed the way it works. Another way of looking at this case is trying to make a guestimate of the downside. We believe there are no reasons to assume the fine is going to be as high as rumoured. In particular, as other / similar cases were much worse or had lower fines. Several comparable cases include:
a) Rabo bank Libor case with a EUR 774m fine of which EUR 70m to the OM, USD 325m of the DoJ and USD 475m to the CFTC. b) Modec in Ghana: no penalty as the USD 5.0m payments to the former CEO of the National Oil Company might have been morally incorrect, but were not illegal. c) Weatherford paid a USD 253m fine for bribing foreign officials and conducting business with nations such as Iran, Syria, Sudan and Cuba. Weatherford’s penalty was partly as high as it is, because the company willingly obstructed the investigation of the DoJ, which lasted for several years d) Total which was charged USD 398m for bribing Iranian officials.
SBM is not able to be specific about the details of the bribery case as the case is still ongoing. However, reading in between the lines, we believe the Modec case is very comparable to SBMs case, which further limits any commercial impact (the only competitor did the same thing SBM). The first step towards normalisation for SBM is the Petrobras investigation, which is due shortly (to be finished end of March early April). Finally, we look at the gap between a normal valuation and the current share price. The lease fleet is worth EUR 18 per share. Each euro difference represents a gap or ‘fine’ of USD 270m. This implies there is a discount of close to USD 1.8bn on the current share price, which we believe is far too high. Even if a penalty needs to be paid, we believe the balance sheet can handle this. SBM has no liquidity constraints. Also solvency stood at 30% at YE13 (covenant > 25%) and although detailed calculations are complicated (SWAPs etc), we believe the company can absorb a fine of up to USD 530m before they hit the covenants. So expectations are extremely low, while the valuation discount is abnormally large, which gives an excellent risk / reward balance, in our view.
SBM Offshore (BUY, TP EUR 18)

quote:

yedemirc schreef op 25 maart 2014 16:14:

Stond op 60% rendement toen het aandeel 16,xx noteerde. Heb niet verkocht - achteraf had ik wellicht beter kunnen verkopen en lager instappen - maar op termijn zie ik mijn initiele inleg verdubbelen.
Ik zeg squeezen die handel en in rap tempo omhoog - als het inderdaad meevalt zoals ABN aangeeft kan het hard gaan.
gr