Ontvang nu dagelijks onze kooptips!

word abonnee
IEX 25 jaar desktop iconMarkt Monitor

Perpetuals, Steepeners« Terug naar discussie overzicht

SRLev 9%: Iemand rente ontvangen?

2.454 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 38 39 40 41 42 ... 123 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. REX 9 oktober 2013 14:48
    Als je dan toch een lijntjes zou willen trekken komt dit lijntje, 2 jaar na opschorting uitbetaling rente, in april 2015 (over 18 maanden dus) keurig uit op de door mij verwachte/voorspelde 136.
    Wat weer op de kop af overkomt met 28 accrued interest wat er dan in zit.
    En een normale waardering van 108 (ex accrued).

    Alleen hoe die dirty koersvorming aan het eind gaat zijn (met die 28 onzichtbaar in de koers), dat wordt een zenuwslopend spel.
    Een klein fortuin te verdienen door dat goed te timen.
  2. Lk-33 10 oktober 2013 10:33
    quote:

    Rex schreef op 10 oktober 2013 10:16:

    Hoover,

    Qua omzet is dus geen enkele van "onze" perps dus Smart money volgens jouw standaard.
    In de afgelopen half jaar is 'particulier' 21.561.000 omgezet, dat doen we toch leuk met z'n 15-en.
    Volgens mij zit er toch wel heel veel logica in het grafiekje van Rex. Oplopende rentes die niet in de koers verwerkt zijn. Uiteraard is het aan iedereen te bepalen of hij het debiteurenrisico acceptabel vindt.
  3. REX 10 oktober 2013 17:53
    quote:

    Lk-33 schreef op 9 oktober 2013 21:50:

    [...]
    www.aex.nl/koersen/meest-verhandelde-...
    leuke vondst overigens LK,
    die euronext lijst kende ik niet.
    als je dat plot op je andere lijstje van onze posities komt dat redelijk overeen... toch?
    Ideetje om "de markt" voortaan ook in je inventarisatie te zetten?
  4. Hoover 18 oktober 2013 10:46
    Hebben we het wel eens over regulatory risk gehad in onze colum?, of alleen maar of de prijs theoretisch 122% of 136% moet zijn. Jammer dat SNS niet wordt genoemd in dit stukje. Benieuwd waar die uitkomen in S1.5 ...
    En als het close naar 100 gaat , moet je eens kijken hoe klein het retail deurtje wordt op de markt ;-)

    The Dutch minister of Finance published this morning a consultation paper for solvency 1.5 (temporary regime ahead of solvency 2). Essentially the solvency 1.5 regime uses solvency 1 calculations corrected for the negative impact from solvency market stress scenarios set out in solvency 2 proposals. This is a relatively harsh method, especially compared with what is being applied elsewhere in Europe today. Nevertheless, given the stance of the MinFin and DNB over the past 2-3yrs no surprise. The consultation runs to 21 November, with the regime targeted to be implemented as of 1 January 2014, but is only applicable for the Dutch life insurance entities. Companies that reach a solvency level <100% on the solvency 1.5 regime for their life entity will not be allowed to upstream dividends from this specific entity to the group.

    Based on existing disclosure by the companies it is not possible to fully calculate the impact of the proposed stresses, but in our view ING’s entity is most at risk due to its relatively low solvency ratio, and Delta Lloyd is at risk due to its significant market exposure. AEGON’s solid capital position and limit market exposure should mean it is least at risk from this new solvency regime. For ING it is important to note that we would not expect the entity to pay a dividend for 2013 anyway, as it is strengthening capital ahead of the expect Insurance Europe IPO next year. Prior to this stress test we expected ING to strengthen the capital of NN by about €0.5b in addition to organic capital generation ahead of the IPO. With regards to Delta Lloyd, it is important to note that given the partial scrip dividend policy in place and the capital generation capacity of the non life / banking operations, the group’s dividend policy in the short term should not be at risk, even if the life operations would not be allowed to pay a dividend this year.
  5. REX 18 oktober 2013 13:22
    "...Companies that reach a solvency level <100% on the solvency 1.5 regime for their life entity will not be allowed to upstream dividends from this specific entity to the group...."

    Dit zou -in a way- toch ook gunstig kunnen zijn voor SRLEv?
    Het betekent dat de SNS Holding geen geld kan onttrekken aan de verzekeringstak.
    Lijkt meer een extra beschermingswal tegen de MOF.
  6. [verwijderd] 18 oktober 2013 15:21
    quote:

    Hoover schreef op 18 oktober 2013 14:52:

    Dank je perpster, dus 148% obv S1.5 wordt het dan, ECHTER, hierin zit niet verwerkt de 30% afslag vanwege het vertrek van Frankrijk uit de ECB AAA curve. Nu is een deel daarvan opgevangen door de stijgende rente maar we komen wel dicht bij de 100% nu ...
    Ik ben geen solvency 2 expert, maar dat ligt imho nogal aanzienlijk subtieler. Wordt onder solvency 2 de ECB AAA curve nog gebruikt dan? ;)
  7. Hoover 18 oktober 2013 16:13
    quote:

    Perpster schreef op 18 oktober 2013 15:21:

    [...]Ik ben geen solvency 2 expert, maar dat ligt imho nogal aanzienlijk subtieler. Wordt onder solvency 2 de ECB AAA curve nog gebruikt dan? ;)
    Perpster, ik dacht dat ze mogen kiezen voor danwel de ECB swap curve, danwel de ECB AAA curve. Aegon b.v. is geswitched naar de swap curve. Als je eenmaal gekozen hebt kan je er echter niet zomaar vanaf. SNS heeft zelf aangegeven dat de solvency met 30punten is gedaald omdat ze de AAA curve gebruiken en omdat Frankrijk eruit is. Ik zal eens kijken op DNB webste of eriets staat.
  8. Hoover 18 oktober 2013 16:15

    (Updates with analyst’s comment in fourth paragraph, ING comment in sixth.)

    By Maud van Gaal and Corina Ruhe
    Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Aegon NV and Delta Lloyd NV are among Dutch insurers facing a drop in solvency because regulators decided to preserve the interest-rate curve used to calculate liabilities following France’s downgrade.
    “Discussions took place at the request of the Dutch Association of Insurers to explore the possibility to allow for a different alternative interest-rate curve,” the Dutch Central Bank, or DNB, said yesterday in a statement. “However, DNB currently sees insufficient reason to approve a different alternative interest-rate curve.”
    Insurers asked the regulator to reconsider after Fitch Ratings stripped France, Europe’s second-largest economy, of its AAA rating last month. The exclusion of French government debt left the curve, which is made up by a selection of sovereign bonds of AAA nations, dominated by low-yielding German debt, they said. A lower average curve inflates insurance liabilities, hurting capital buffers.
    “Although we consider this discount-rate story to be largely accounting noise, we hoped for more flexibility from the Dutch central bank away from this ‘worst case’ scenario,”
    Maarten Altena, a London-based analyst at Mediobanca SpA, said in a note today. “All in all, we do not see any impact on dividends currently although Delta Lloyd, that is largely exposed to the Netherlands, clearly has the biggest disadvantage.”

    Shares Decline

    Delta Lloyd shares fell 3.5 percent to 14.44 euros in Amsterdam at 12:31 p.m., while ING Groep NV and Aegon both dropped 1.2 percent.
    Aegon, owner of U.S. insurer Transamerica Corp., said this month that the solvency ratio in its Dutch unit, which stood at 270 percent at the end of June, would drop by about 35 percentage points on France’s downgrade. Delta Lloyd forecast a decline of about 15 points and said it’s solvency would drop to
    171 percent at the end of July. ING said today solvency in its combined European and Asian insurance unit would drop by 20 percentage points to 30 percentage points from 304 percent at the end of June.
    The Dutch Association of Insurers, a trade group representing about 95 percent of the market, said the industry still has a strong solvency position.
    “The association considers it undesirable that solvency depends on an external event such as the downgrade of France, while nothing has changed on the Dutch market,” the organization based in The Hague said in an e-mailed statement.

    Ratings Revised

    Dutch insurers can stick to the ECB AAA yield curve or shift to a standard interest-rate curve, the central bank said.
    Tobias Oudejans, a spokesman for the Amsterdam-based regulator, declined to comment on the possible consequences of a downgrade of the Netherlands.
    The Netherlands, together with Germany, Finland and Luxembourg, are the only remaining countries in the euro region that have top ratings at the three major rating companies. Fitch was the last to change its outlook for the Netherlands, revising the country down to negative from stable in February because of the level of public debt, falling property prices and concern about the financial health of some banks.
    Moody’s Investors Service lowered its Dutch outlook to negative in July 2012, while Standard & Poor’s has had a negative outlook for the rating since January 2012.

2.454 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 38 39 40 41 42 ... 123 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Word nu gratis lid of log in met je emailadres en wachtwoord.