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Home  /   Forum   /   Chinese aandelen   /   Alibaba

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Alibaba

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539 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 ... 27 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  2. [verwijderd] 7 februari 2022 13:55
    quote:

    Dividend Collector schreef op 7 februari 2022 13:41:

    Verkopen op deze bodemprijs? Zijn ze gek geworden daar? Softbank is met een kwart van de aandelen de grootste institutionele aandeelhouder. Als dat bericht waar is zou dat een slecht signaal zijn en geen teken van vertrouwen.
    Alibaba: The 1 Billion Share Registration Isn't Dilution
    Feb. 05, 2022 12:37 AM ET

    Summary

    An F-6EF form has been filed on Alibaba.
    The form is for an additional 1 billion ADRs, which is a very relevant number.
    I saw some concern this could represent dilution, hence this article clearing things up.

    seekingalpha.com/article/4484611-alib...

    Ik denk eerder dat ze deze ADR's nu willen laten registreren om ooit (op stuk hoger niveau) te kunnen verkopen zonder dat op dat moment (zoals nu) de markt opeens wakker geschud wordt en hierover nerveus zou worden.
    Nu kan de koers toch niet zo veel zakken, zullen ze denken, en misschien is het zeker al helemaal vergeten en zitten we een stuk hoger als ze met resultaten van Q3 komen.
  3. Alfie Solomons 7 februari 2022 17:34
    Gaat nu wel eens tijd worden voor wat positief nieuws! Het ziet er naar uit dat we voor de 4e keer in 3 maanden de 111$ gaan testen. Ik koop nog 1 plukje bij om mijn GAK wat te verlagen en dan is het qua BABA goed zo. De resultaten moeten toch wel positief zijn? Toch voelt dit soms als een coin flip. Dan lees je ook nog dat verhaal over Softbank.. Als die gaan verkopen rond deze koersen dan staan we met een beetje pech zo rond de 90. Maar waarom zou Softbank dat doen?

    Alfie
  4. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 7 februari 2022 17:57
    Blijf nu op mijn handen zitten. Eerst eens wachten op de cijfers. Door al die maatregelen in China ben ik toch benieuwd wat dit voor gevolgen heeft gehad voor het 4e kwartaal 2021. Als ie hierdoor verder wegzakt, dan 'buy the deep dip', zonet en BABA stijgt, dan is het oké.
    Succes
  12. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 9 februari 2022 17:29
    Softbank ziet verkoop belang Alibaba los van Amerikaanse aandelenregistratie - media
    Door ABM Financial News op 9 februari 2022 13:19

    Softbank ziet verkoop belang Alibaba los van Amerikaanse aandelenregistratie - media

    (ABM FN-Dow Jones) De Japanse investeerder Softbank heeft de vrees onder beleggers dat de Japanse investeerder een grootschalige verkoop van aandelen Alibaba plant, weggenomen. Dit schreef persbureau Reuters woensdag op basis van een verklaring van de zijde van Softbank aan het persbureau.

    Alibaba diende vorige week een registratieverzoek in voor 1 miljard zogeheten American Depositary Shares.

    Analisten van Citigroup zeiden dat dit mogelijk de aanzet is tot een aandelenverkoop door Softbank.

    Softbank liet Reuters echter weten dat er geen verband is tussen de verkoop van een belang in Alibaba door Softbank en het registratieverzoek van het Chinese internetbedrijf in de Verenigde Staten.

    Softbanks CEO Masayoshi Son zei volgens Reuters tegenover analisten verrast te zijn over het verzoek van Alibaba in New York en benadrukte daar ook in het geheel geen bemoeienis mee te hebben.

    Softbank houdt een belang van 25 procent in Alibaba, goed voor 82 miljard dollar, terwijl de marktkapitalisatie van de investeerder niet verder reikt dan 84 miljard dollar.

    Bron: ABM Financial News
  15. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 10 februari 2022 22:30
    seekingalpha.com/article/4485759-can-...

    Can Alibaba Actually Rebound?
    Oleh Kombaiev

    Intro

    Everything has its limit to resist pressure. This is equally true of a wooden board, the human psyche, or the market capitalization of a company. I want to say that everything has a certain line, beyond which a return to its previous state is no longer possible...

    This article is a critical assessment of the fundamental possibility that Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) price will ever return to 2020 levels.

    Risks, Risks and more Risks

    In my opinion, there is hardly an investor who will say that Alibaba is now fundamentally overvalued. I mean, if you make a rough estimate of how much free cash flow the company can generate in the future and discount this amount, taking into account a reasonable cost of capital, then the resulting figure will exceed the current capitalization of Alibaba several times.

    So, everything is obvious, the issue is not a fundamental undervaluation, the issue is risks.

    I have already attempted to classify these risks:

    China's regulatory crackdown.
    The growing confrontation between the United States and China.
    Risk of complete delisting of the company in the US.
    This list can probably be shortened, given that the risk of delisting is a consequence of the tense relationship between the US and China. But in any case, when we talk about the pressure that Alibaba is under, we are talking about risks.

    Second Political Party of China

    Four years ago, China officially abandoned the rotation of power every 10 years. This was the beginning of the real transformation of the Chinese authoritarian regime into an autocratic one. Thus, Thomas Friedman's prediction that a slowdown in China's economic growth would lead to an increase in democracy has clearly not come true.

    Any power requires legitimacy. For years, this legitimacy for the Chinese government was provided by high economic growth rates that raised the standard of living of the population. But as the economy slowed down, the question of legitimacy became more pressing.

    For a long time, the Chinese technology sector developed unhindered. The government even supported and subsidized it. As a result, very large tech companies have emerged in China. These companies have accumulated huge capital, have at their disposal a colossal array of data and their management has become close to the Western world. To some extent, these companies got the opportunity to influence the processes in the country. In other words, they have become a second political party. But this is completely unacceptable to the Chinese government.

    It should not be forgotten that the ongoing downturn in the Chinese tech market began with the famous speech by Jack Ma on October 24, 2020 at the Bund Summit in Shanghai. Criticism of the ruling party headed by Xi Jinping was read between the lines of the speech. What started after that in terms of increased regulation of Chinese technology companies we all know well.

    The situation is further complicated by the fact that Xi Jinping is an aging leader. Judging by what we see in Belarus and Russia, such leaders are characterized by an increase in paranoid fears. This means that the Chinese president will be more inclined to overestimate the threat to his power from technology companies and their leaders in the future.

    In my opinion, in this context, the internal situation in China will never be the same, and even more likely to worsen. This is a bad deal for Alibaba and for any major Chinese company.

    US vs. China: Dynamics Towards Complexity

    Watching Biden as president of the United States, one should draw an interesting conclusion: Trump's policy towards China continues. The new administration has not abolished the tariffs on imported goods that were introduced under the previous president. More than that, judging by the statements of officials, these tariffs will not be abolished in the near future.

    On the other hand, the US Secretary of State accuses China of being more aggressive abroad and more repressive at home. Blinken also adds that the US should build relations with China "from a position of strength".

    For its part, China continues to strengthen relations with Russia. In the current crisis around Ukraine, China is almost openly taking the side of Russia in opposing NATO expansion. By the way, parallels can be drawn here: Ukraine is for Russia, as Taiwan is for China.

    China has repeatedly stated that it may use military force if Taiwan formally declares its independence. In turn, the US is an ally of Taiwan. And in the event of an aggravation of the situation, the United States will definitely begin by imposing new sanctions against China (just like now the United States are promising to impose sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine). These sanctions could easily affect the financial sector as well. It may not come to a forced delisting, but additional restrictions and disclosure rules for Chinese companies will be introduced for sure.

    Admittedly, the dynamics of relations between China and the United States tend to become more complex. Potentially, this means higher risks for Chinese companies listed on US stock market.

    Bottom line

    Risks (or fears) have an interesting property: they quickly appear and slowly disappear. This is the result of evolution. Those who quickly forgot that they should not enter the dark cave, as a rule, did not leave offspring.

    Despite the above thoughts, now I am not ready to confidently conclude that Alibaba's capitalization will no longer be able to return to its highs. There are also positive aspects of the situation that are worth writing about separately. But of one thing I am sure, the recovery will not be quick. The risks that caused the company's price to fall have no fundamental reasons for a decrease in the near future.
  17. Rider 11 februari 2022 10:34
    quote:

    nine_inch_nerd schreef op 11 februari 2022 08:13:

    Ter info:
    Durk Veenstra van RTL Z zei net dat er vandaag toch cijfers zouden komen van BABA (vermoed ik, nadat hem werd gevraagd waar hij vandaag naar uitkeek). We zullen zien. Fijne dag.
    24/02/2022..

    flashalert.me/?symbol=BABA&source...
  20. forum rang 9 nine_inch_nerd 11 februari 2022 15:33
    Ter info

    Economists say the worst of China’s regulatory crackdown is over
    Evelyn Cheng

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters
    BEIJING — The worst of China’s regulatory crackdown is over as Beijing shifts its focus to supporting growth, economists said.

    That does not mean the end of regulation — which has swept across internet technology, real estate and other industries in the last year — but signals fewer major changes ahead, the analysts said.

    China’s economy slowed to 4% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, despite expanding by 8.1% for the full year. Sluggish consumer spending dragged down growth, while a slew of regulatory developments added to businesses’ uncertainty on top of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Chinese leaders’ new priority for 2022 is to defend 5% growth, Macquarie’s chief China economist Larry Hu said in a note late Wednesday. That means “peak anti-monopoly, peak property tightening and peak decarbonization are all behind us.”

    “Peak regulation means fewer and less intensive regulation changes this year, as the focus on regulation last year has given way to a focus on growth,” Hu added in an email. “Put differently, it means that the worst is over, but not a reversion to the past.”

    In 2021, Beijing cracked down on alleged monopolistic behavior by internet giants such as Alibaba, real estate property developers’ high reliance on debt and regional failures to reduce carbon emissions. Abrupt changes disrupted business, notably in factory power cuts and mass job losses at after-school tutoring centers.

    But in the last few months, official statements point to a softening in Beijing’s stance, analysts said.

    “As one senior official, Han Wenxiu, said in December, the government will refrain from launching policies that have negative impact on economic growth,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in an email Thursday. “President Xi [Jinping] also published an article which reiterated the importance of digital economy. I’d expect the government to focus on economic stability this year.”

    Zhang doesn’t anticipate a reversal of regulations, just fewer major changes. His question is “how and when the government will implement the policies they already announced last year, such as the property tax pilot program and the registration based IPO reform.”

    Announcements this week added to signals on how Beijing would reduce its rigidity.

    Top leaders in December had already removed references to anti-monopoly, property policy and carbon neutrality from a list of economic tasks for 2022, Macquarie’s Hu said.

    Steelmakers get another five years to reduce emissions

    Then on Monday, China’s top economic planning agency and two ministries delayed the target year for the steel industry to reach peak carbon emissions by five years to 2030.

    The extra five years can reduce the burden on steelmakers by allowing them to spread out investments in decarbonization and avoid large capital expenditures in the short term, Moody’s analysts said in a note Wednesday.

    They don’t expect the change to affect the nation’s goal of reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030. “The government will continue to implement strict control over steel capacity and production while encouraging environmentally-friendly projects,” the analysts said. “Such efforts, along with the extension, will also help support stability in steel supply and prices.”

    Read more about China from CNBC Pro

    HSBC picks Chinese stocks to play a rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yield

    Credit Suisse says it’s time to pivot to China, and names 6 global stocks to buy

    Apple suppliers, metaverse and more: JPMorgan names its top Asian tech stocks to buy

    On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China announced loans for affordable rental housing would not count toward the limited amount banks can lend to the property sector, freeing up more capital to support the real estate industry.

    More communication with markets

    That same day, the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, published an editorial stating that while rules on the use of capital are needed to reduce monopolistic behavior, among others, the economy still needs capital for growth.

    Beijing’s crackdown on alleged monopolistic behavior has particularly targeted internet technology companies like Alibaba that are listed in the U.S. This and other policy developments since Chinese ride-hailing company Didi listed in New York in late June have given international investors pause on putting money into the country.

    The People’s Daily article “suggests regulatory curbs on the internet sector will stay in place, but will likely become more rules based, with fading uncertainty as the regulatory framework takes shape,” Bruce Pang, head of strategy and macro research at China Renaissance, said in a note Tuesday.

    Regulation in line with political themes such as common prosperity — moderate wealth for all, rather than a few — and sustainable development will remain, Pang said. But “we think the authorities have begun to carefully manage the pace and intensity of the regulatory campaign in order to complete major economic and social development targets set for the next 5-10 years.”

    He noted how Chinese officials have started to communicate better with the market about the motives and reasons for regulation as well as areas of future government scrutiny. “Investor concerns may be driven less by the substance of proposed regulations and more by communication,” he said.

    The Shanghai composite is up more than 3% this week — the first trading week of the month due to a holiday — after falling by more than 7.5% in January. The Hang Seng Index is up more than 4% this month after gains of 1.7% in January.

    KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) — a U.S.-listed exchange traded fund that includes Chinese stocks listed abroad — plunged by more than 50% last year amid regulatory uncertainty. The ETF is up 5.4% so far in 2022.

    Not the end of regulation

    Peak regulation is certainly not the end of regulation, Macquarie’s Hu said in his report. He pointed to a similar regulatory peak at the end of 2018, which served as a turning point for a sell-off in mainland Chinese stocks, even though local governments and businesses continued to act.

    China’s government system often means local authorities vie for Beijing’s attention through sometimes extreme implementation measures. Official language from central government directives then often warns against “blindly” shutting down a line of business.

    For 2022, Beijing has emphasized stability above all. In the second half of the year, the ruling Chinese Communist Party is set to hold a meeting for determining top leadership positions — including the expected extension of President Xi Jinping’s term beyond that of his predecessors.

    The political pressure for stability comes after a year in which the Party celebrated its 100th anniversary. The country meanwhile had an economy bouncing back fast enough from the pandemic to withstand what analysts have called painful but necessary changes to address longstanding problems.

    Now, growth is slowing as China also tackles fresh coronavirus outbreaks.

    “The regulatory wave in 2020-21 brought many unintended consequences,” Hu said. “For instance, business confidence weakened, the property sector plunged, and commodity prices surged.”

    “The consequence of [Beijing’s] campaign-style is that things could easily be overdone. As the result, top leaders would have to fine-tune from time to time, decide the time to claim victory and move on to the next campaign,” Hu said. “It happened so many times over the past one hundred years, and will continue to happen in the future.”
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