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Home  /   Forum   /   OCI   /   OCI - 2021

Aandeel OCI AEX:OCI.NL, NL0010558797

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
11,355   +0,115   (+1,02%) Dagrange 11,170 - 11,385 954.170   Gem. (3M) 896,5K

OCI - 2021

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7.828 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 370 371 372 373 374 ... 392 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. Dubbeldip 17 december 2021 16:31
    quote:

    Just lucky schreef op 17 december 2021 16:25:

    Iedereen kan zeggen wat hij wil, maar de klucht wordt groter en groter. CF weer gewoon mooi groen, tegen ATH. En OCI weer op nul omzet omlaag, nu op het laagste punt van de afgelopen maanden.
    Je kan inderdaad zeggen wat je wil maar je kan ook zien wat je wil.
    Mijn advies, stop nu eens met dagelijks kijken en beoordelen. Is niet goed voor je hart en gemoedstoestand. Pas in april 2022 weer eens kijken naar de koers.

    Ik heb AMG ook, nu bijna 1 jaar. Rendement van zo'n 12%. Glas halfvol, veel meer dan op mijn spaarrekening. Glas half leeg, stonden half jaar geleden nog op 34 euro en is zo'n 30% minder rendement dan OCI. Ellende en grote klucht.....toch?
  4. forum rang 7 Just lucky 17 december 2021 17:21
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 17 december 2021 17:18:

    Dit is toch krankzinnig.... CF nadert ATH. Oci dreutelt op 3m low... manmanman
    Dat mag je niet zeggen he, vast de algo's. CF deze week +10% en OCI, de beste van de sector, die helaas door niemand gezien wordt, 3% omlaag.
  5. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 17 december 2021 17:47
    quote:

    Just lucky schreef op 17 december 2021 17:21:

    [...]Dat mag je niet zeggen he, vast de algo's. CF deze week +10% en OCI, de beste van de sector, die helaas door niemand gezien wordt, 3% omlaag.
    Boeiend. Maar het heeft iig alle schijn van. Kom maar op met die overname.
  6. forum rang 6 Ruval 17 december 2021 19:32
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 17 december 2021 17:47:

    [...]

    Boeiend. Maar het heeft iig alle schijn van. Kom maar op met die overname.
    Ik vraag me af wat nu hopelijk dé koerstrigger moet gaan worden…

    Wat was eigenlijk de trigger achter mooie stijging 1ste 4 maanden van dit jaar?

    Super irritant allemaal maar het moet toch een keer gaan draaien. En wanneer gaat familie weer eens wat steun aankopen doen, net zoals medio vorig jaar? Als ze daadwerkelijk zo positief zijn, dan is huidige koersniveau toch een schijntje?
  7. forum rang 4 eduardo3105 17 december 2021 21:00
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 17 december 2021 17:47:

    [...]

    Boeiend. Maar het heeft iig alle schijn van. Kom maar op met die overname.
    Ben ook nog steeds van overtuigd dat er een overname komt.
    Het opsplitsen van het bedrijf en koersverloop zijn voor mij daarvoor de reden dat ik dat denk
    Overnemende partij (en) want ik verwacht dat Oci in delen wordt opgekocht waarbij de familie er ook nog één aanhoudt

    By the way de opties hadden geen of weing invloed op de naveiling
    als je dat bv vergelijkt met TT; 2,372,071 ipv normaal tussen de 100k en 200k
  9. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 17 december 2021 21:32
    quote:

    Just lucky schreef op 17 december 2021 21:10:

    Er ging bij mij wat fout bij de verkoop van een pluk opties Oci vlak voor sluiting. Ze waren itm en worden daarom door de bank uitgeoefend en maandag bij opening verkocht. Als dat bij de giro gebeurt dan ben je gewoon alles kwijt, die geven dat ook expliciet aan.
    Geschreven puts die itm waren? Bij mij vorig maand ook gebeurd bij de giro. Had niet door dat ik nog een put 26 november had. Vervolgens had de giro de aandelen gekocht en stond ik negatief waar dan weer rente voor wordt gerekend. Maar vervolgens die maandag de aandelen weer verkocht. Dus toen was alles weer bij het oude.
  10. forum rang 7 Just lucky 17 december 2021 22:17
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 17 december 2021 21:32:

    [...]

    Geschreven puts die itm waren? Bij mij vorig maand ook gebeurd bij de giro. Had niet door dat ik nog een put 26 november had. Vervolgens had de giro de aandelen gekocht en stond ik negatief waar dan weer rente voor wordt gerekend. Maar vervolgens die maandag de aandelen weer verkocht. Dus toen was alles weer bij het oude.
    Dat valt dan mee, in principe doet de giro dat niet. Ging bij mij om een pluk calls, kreeg bericht dat de bank ze gekocht heeft.
  14. [verwijderd] 19 december 2021 18:00
    quote:

    Kruimeldief schreef op 18 december 2021 23:30:

    Mooie toekomst voor Fertiglobe. Wie weer wat dat met OCI op termijn gaat doen.
    Waar velen dachten (ik ook) dat de IPO van Fertiglobe en nadien de forse stijging van het aandeel
    en waarvan 50+% OCI, gebeurde het tegendeel en daalde de koers van OCI flink en gingen de Peers juist flink hoger,ook de 15% verkoop van Methanol wat 375$ miljoen opbracht en dit onderdeel een waarde meegaf van 2,5$ miljard maar niet te spreken over de forse schuld verlaging,en de fors hogere winst in dit 4 kwartaal waren dit trickers om fors te stijgen en dat had ook moeten gebeuren,met hulp van zakenbanken die met koop aanbevelingen de koersdoelen fors verhoogde,zelfs JPM die een positief advies gaf (in vele jaren niet gebeurd)wat is er in hemelsnaam mis met dit aandeel!!
  15. [verwijderd] 19 december 2021 18:34
    Ik plaats nog even een artikel uit 2017 en zeg er ook bij het heeft geen zin oude koeien uit de sloot te halen maar toch,de beurswaarde toen van OCI is momenteel niet veel hoger dan op dit moment,maar OCI heeft dit jaar een giga verandering door gemaakt,het artikel dateert dus uit mei 2017 en was Fertiglobe nog helemaal niet aan de orde dat is pas later gebeurd,het vergelijk met CF toen is dat CF een beurswaarde had van 6,3 $ miljard en nu meer als verdubbeld.
  16. [verwijderd] 19 december 2021 18:34
    Should You Buy CF Industries Or OCI?
    May 25, 2017 9:45 AM ETCF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), OCINF, OCINY13 Comments
    The Investment Doctor profile picture
    The Investment Doctor
    Marketplace
    Summary
    CF Industries and OCI are both getting ready to generate positive free cash flow after completing their expansion projects.
    CF Industries will continue to pay its attractive dividend, whilst OCI wants to repair its balance sheet.
    OCI is betting big on Methanol after the methanol price doubled. It will add 1.3M of new capacity, generating $500M per year in additional sales.
    Introduction

    Although fertilizer prices remain relatively weak, I do agree with the assessment of CF Industries' (NYSE:CF) management, which expects things to improve in 2018. This could indicate it's the right time to position yourself into the fertilizer companies in anticipation of higher prices. Whilst most American investors focus on the well-known mammoth companies like CF Industries, Agrium (AGU) and Potash Corp. (POT), I'd like to highlight one European fertilizer company as well, OCI (OTC:OCINF) (OTCQX:OCINY).

    Some readers will remember the name, as CF Industries originally wanted to merge with this company and re-domicile itself in the UK and subsequently the Netherlands, but the deal ultimately fell through and CF Industries had to pay OCI a break fee.

    CF Year to Date Price Returns (Daily) Chart

    CF Year to Date Price Returns (Daily) data by YCharts. OCI's main listing is on Euronext Amsterdam, where it's trading with OCI as its ticker symbol. The average daily trading volume is in excess of 600,000 shares for a dollar volume of approximately $14M. The current market capitalization is 4.61B EUR.

    A brief overview of CF Industries' Q1

    CF Industries saw its revenue increase by 3% to $1.04B, but unfortunately, its gross margin and operating income came in substantially lower as the pressure on its margins continued. This shouldn't be a surprise and even the net loss of $23 million (or 10 cents per share) was pretty much expected.

    But just as in my previous articles I wrote about CF Industries, you should care more about the company's cash flows rather than the income statement as the depreciation rate ($205M in Q1) is substantially higher than the sustaining capex ($94M) to keep the plant and equipment in good shape.

    Source: SEC filings

    So whereas the company reported a net loss, its cash flow statements were actually showing a positive free cash flow. The adjusted operating cash flow was $234M, and after deducting the $94M in capex and the $54M distributed to non-controlling interests, the adjusted free cash flow was approximately $86M. Granted, that's still not great, but a FCF/share of $0.37 is definitely better than the net loss of 10 cents per share.

    And what's perhaps even more important is the fact that the quarterly dividend was fully covered by the free cash flow in the first quarter. And that has been a while!

    OCI only released a 'trading update', but the 2017 outlook is what matters

    Dutch companies are only required to file financial reports on a half-year basis, so OCI only released a brief trading update, which actually sounded pretty positive. The utilization rate of its Egyptian urea facilities was approximately 100%, and the sales prices are increasing again compared to Q4.

    This bodes well for the company's revenues, and as the new Iowa fertilizer plant has started to produce nitrogen and is the first greenfield factory built in almost three decades, I expect to see a substantial pick-up in the total sales volumes and revenue from the current quarter on, as this is the very first quarter wherein the new Iowa plant will start to contribute to the total result.

    Source: OCI press release

    Indeed, the company's capital expenditures will drop sharply to just $150-200M from this year on. Even if I would use the upper end of this guidance, OCI's free cash flow will increase tremendously from FY 2017 on, and I think the company will surprise a lot of investors. The recent strength in its share price shouldn't be a surprise, as the market is anticipating a windfall of cash flow in the 2017-2020 era, even at below-average fertilizer prices.

    Comparing the metrics based on the 2016 results

    Let's now put everything in perspective and compare some of the most important metrics of both companies. As OCI hasn't provided detailed financials after its first quarter, unfortunately, I will have to use the annual results of both companies. All amounts and numbers are in US Dollars.

    As you can see, CF Industries scores better than OCI on the net debt/EBITDA metrics as well as the operating cash flow margin. However, I do expect OCI's EBITDA and operating cash flow to increase faster in 2017-2018, as the company has completed its Iowa nitrogen facility and is in the final construction phase of the Natgasoline site (methanol) which should be completed by the end of this year.

    On top of that, OCI's board has sanctioned the re-start of the second production line at BioMCN to increase its methanol production even further. This shouldn't be surprising as the methanol price has been booming lately, as you can see in the next image:

    Source: OCI Trading update

    The 430,000 tonnes of Methanol in Europe will add at least $150M to the revenue, whilst the 875,000 tonnes of methanol produced in Texas at the Natgasoline facility will add an additional $310-340M per year. This means OCI will see its revenue increase by $500M based on these projects alone, and this could push the EBITDA to in excess of $600M (this still excludes the contribution from the new Iowa plant, the higher commodity prices and the lower interest expenses). Throw in the $100M in annual cost savings that has been identified, and OCI is ready to flex its muscles.

    Investment thesis

    So whilst CF Industries seemed to be scoring better based on the 2016 results, investing is about looking to the future. I'm particularly pleased to see that OCI is now planning to use pretty much its entire free cash flow to reduce its net debt in order to obtain an investment grade rating by 2018-2019. I would expect the net debt to drop below $4B by the end of this year, and to less than $3.5B by the end of 2018.

    Considering OCI's cost of debt is really high (it's a non-investment grade issuer) at 5.25% ($242M in interest expenses divided by $4.6B gross debt), reducing the net debt will have a huge impact on its interest bill and free cash flow. A positive snowball effect, that's for sure.

    Investing in CF Industries and in OCI isn't a mutually exclusive scenario, and a combination of both companies might cover your needs. CF Industries will act as the dividend payer whilst OCI is focusing on repairing its balance sheet to get an investment grade rating. It still is a pity the merger didn't go through, as the combination of both companies and OCI's renewed investments in Methanol would have resulted in a strong conglomerate.

    And before we leave: Consider joining European Small-Cap Ideas to gain exclusive access to actionable research on appealing European-focused investment opportunities, and to the real-time chat function to discuss ideas with similar-minded investors!

    Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
  17. [verwijderd] 19 december 2021 19:00
    Zelfs na de forse stijging van CF wordt het koersdoel nog fors opgetrokken.

    CF Industries (NYSE:CF) PT Raised to $75.00 at BMO Capital Markets
    By
    ETF Daily News
    -
    Dec 13, 2021
    CF Industries (NYSE:CF) had its target price boosted by BMO Capital Markets from $70.00 to $75.00 in a report released on Friday morning, The Fly reports. BMO Capital Markets...
  18. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 19 december 2021 21:47
    China produces urea in full swing for fertilizer use, emissions reductions amid global shortage: industry practitioners
    By GT staff reporters
    Published: Dec 19, 2021 08:34 PM Updated: Dec 19, 2021 08:25 PM


    Farmers apply fertilizer in the fields during the winter planting season at Darong Village of Wuxuan County, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nov. 23, 2021.Photo:Xinhua
    Farmers apply fertilizer in the fields during the winter planting season at Darong Village of Wuxuan County, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nov. 23, 2021.Photo:Xinhua

    China is boosting production of urea, a raw material for and a necessity for vehicle emissions reductions, amid a global shortage, but exports to countries like Australia, which is facing a severe shortage, could be limited due to tightening domestic supplies as well as surging transport costs, industry practitioners and insiders told the Global Times on Sunday.

    Urea is widely used as nitrogen fertilizer in the agriculture industry, and it is the raw material for a wide range of chemical products such as AdBlue, or diesel exhaust fluid, which is used to reduce the nitrous oxide emissions of diesel engines under international standards.

    "There is a serious shortage of urea in Australia. So far this month, we have exported more than 10 40-foot containers of urea to Australia," a manager surnamed Li at an AdBlue producer based in South China's Guangdong Province, told the Global Times.

    The company mainly exported AdBlue to South Korea in October and November.
    "At present, exports of urea are normal. There is no circumstance under which urea cannot be exported to Australia. The customs inspection period is about 15 days," said Li.

    The General Administration of Customs announced that from October 15, "condition B" inspections - for exports that can be cleared only after an inspection and quarantine report issued by the destination country is obtained - would be required for 29 kinds of fertilizers and related materials, including urea.

    "Since there are many exporters who do not have export commodity inspection qualifications, it will be very troublesome to export urea," Li noted.

    Yu Lei, an industry observer, said that the tightening of export rules came after China's urea production fell, while exports increased, so domestic prices remained high.

    Industry data showed that urea production in China from January to November decreased by more than 1 million tons year-on-year. But in the same period, China's exports of urea increased 400,000 tons to 5.26 million tons, customs data showed.

    "The output decline was mainly due to environmental protection measures and carbon emission controls, and coal shortages in the second half of the year," Yu told the Global Times on Sunday.

    Coal and natural gas are important feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, and electricity is crucial to production. Global energy shortages have spread downstream on industry chains, according to industry insiders.

    "Russia and Egypt have both imposed export quotas on fertilizers and restricted exports. In the EU, urea production stopped because of natural gas supply problems. The global fertilizer sector is indeed in a mess," said Yu.
    In China, the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planner, announced on December 1 that a coordinating group of several ministries will be established to guarantee chemical fertilizer production, and on December 3 it announced supply guarantees for electricity, coal and natural gas for urea production.

    "China is making a big push into fertilizer production, and is racing to contribute to global supplies of nitrogen fertilizer. The increased urea production is the short-term solution to the global urea shortage," said Yu.

    But industry insiders doubted if Australia could ask for help from China, after South Korea negotiated with China to speed up urea clearance.

    They added that Australia is short of urea, mostly for fertilizer use, while vehicle use is only a small part.

    Li also noted that shipping costs from China to Australia are expected to increase further, driven by demand for urea and other products and the impact of the overseas pandemic.

    "Sea freight from China to Australia increased by four times this week compared with November. At present, the free on board (FOB) rate from Guangdong to Australia is about 3,400 yuan ($533) per ton, and there is room for an increase, because the FOB price to South Korea was above 4,000 yuan at the beginning of November," Li said.
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