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Home  /   Forum   /   Plug Power   /   Forum Plug Power Inc geopend

Aandeel Plug Power OTC:PLUG.Q, US72919P2020

Vertraagde koers (usd) Verschil Volume
2,380   0,000   (0,00%) Dagrange 2,280 - 2,520 61.228.243   Gem. (3M) 55,9M

Forum Plug Power Inc geopend

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4.626 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 ... 232 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  3. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 09:06
    Plug Power Insiders Cash Out On ESG Euphoria
    Nov. 17, 2020 3:20 PMPlug Power Inc. (PLUG)
    Summary

    We believe Plug Power is incorrectly positioning itself as an ESG company in an effort to capitalize on the ESG movement. Insiders have sold $106m of their stock YTD.
    Our research shows how revenue growth from Amazon & Walmart is unlikely to persist and is a costly subsidy for PLUG shareholders.
    Without the subsidized Amazon & Walmart revenue, the underlying business is actually declining -52% yr/yr.
    Plug Power is an old “story stock” with a flawed business model that dates back to 1999 and a CEO with a history of broken promises.

    This article was highlighted for PRO subscribers, Seeking Alpha’s service for professional investors. Find out how you can get the best content on Seeking Alpha here.

    The ESG investing movement is a powerful force in the capital markets and a positive influence on society at large. We believe Plug Power (ticker: PLUG) incorrectly presents itself as an ESG company in an effort to capitalize on the current ESG movement. Our report will highlight how Plug Power is failing at two of the ESG tenets – Sustainability and Governance.

    The stock has rocketed up +700% over the past 12 months, but we worry that most investors caught up in the euphoria have little knowledge of Plug’s history. Our research indicates this stock price boom is based on revenue growth that is unsustainable and likely to reverse. Our research shows how the revenue growth propelling the stock is actually a costly subsidy to Amazon and Walmart at the expense of PLUG’s shareholders. We see the stock falling back to earth in 2021 as the revenue from these two main customers declines.

    We think investors could lose -75% as the stock makes its way back to our fair value estimate of $5.70 per share.

    We don’t publish our research often, especially on the short side, but we would highlight our last published bearish report was on Akorn Pharmaceuticals, which declined -100% and filed for bankruptcy since our report was published 11 months ago.

    Our Plug Power report will highlight the following areas of concern:

    An unsustainable business model dating back to 1999.
    Subsidized revenue growth strategy that is not understood by investors.
    A long history of extreme equity dilution.
    Reliance on 40 year old technology that is non-proprietary with limited commercial applications.
    Massive insider selling across the Company.
    A management team with a history of failing to meet guidance provided to investors.
    A valuation detached from reality

    An unsustainable business model built on selling equity and 40 yr old technology

    For a company that so heavily promotes the idea of sustainability, we find it ironic that Plug Power has such an unsustainable business model. Plug Power is an old “story stock” with a flawed business model that dates back to 1999. Every few years, investor enthusiasm for alternative energy creates the perfect conditions for the stock to go parabolic. The only problem is that the management team never delivers on its revolutionary vision for the future and the stock comes crashing back down to earth. We’ve seen this boom/bust cycle play out in 2000, 2011, 2014, and now today.

    We believe Plug Power has a fundamentally flawed business model. Over the past twenty years, the business has never generated positive free cash flow, rather it has burned $1.1 billion of investor capital. In fact, Plug Power has reported negative gross margins in 15 of the past 20 years. 22 years into this business, Plug still struggles to sell its product for more than it costs to make it. This flawed business model is kept alive by nonstop equity raises, which we will discuss in more detail later.
  4. TheBiG 19 november 2020 09:07
    Plug Power: Massive Capital Raise Provides Sufficient Funds To Embark On Strategic Transformation And Achieve Aggressive Growth Targets

    Company successfully executes on its largest capital raise ever. Assuming full exercise of the over-allotment option, gross proceeds could approach $1 billion.

    Strong investor demand resulted in the offering being upsized by almost $100 million. Unrestricted cash balance likely to exceed $1.35 billion with estimated net cash of at least $500 million.

    Plug Power finally appears to have sufficient funds to embark on the strategic transformation envisioned by management and achieve aggressive long-term financial targets.

    Elevated valuation remains a cause for concern but with a pre-revenue company like Nikola Corporation valued at similar levels, the recent rally in Plug Power's shares might very well have more legs.

    Only highly speculative investors should consider taking advantage of Tuesday's offering-related pullback.

    seekingalpha.com/article/4390014-plug...
  5. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 09:09
    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 19 november 2020 09:06:

    Plug Power Insiders Cash Out On ESG Euphoria
    Nov. 17, 2020 3:20 PMPlug Power Inc. (PLUG)
    Summary

    We believe Plug Power is incorrectly positioning itself as an ESG company in an effort to capitalize on the ESG movement. Insiders have sold $106m of their stock YTD.
    Our research shows how revenue growth from Amazon & Walmart is unlikely to persist and is a costly subsidy for PLUG shareholders.
    Without the subsidized Amazon & Walmart revenue, the underlying business is actually declining -52% yr/yr.
    Plug Power is an old “story stock” with a flawed business model that dates back to 1999 and a CEO with a history of broken promises.

    This article was highlighted for PRO subscribers, Seeking Alpha’s service for professional investors. Find out how you can get the best content on Seeking Alpha here.

    The ESG investing movement is a powerful force in the capital markets and a positive influence on society at large. We believe Plug Power (ticker: PLUG) incorrectly presents itself as an ESG company in an effort to capitalize on the current ESG movement. Our report will highlight how Plug Power is failing at two of the ESG tenets – Sustainability and Governance.

    The stock has rocketed up +700% over the past 12 months, but we worry that most investors caught up in the euphoria have little knowledge of Plug’s history. Our research indicates this stock price boom is based on revenue growth that is unsustainable and likely to reverse. Our research shows how the revenue growth propelling the stock is actually a costly subsidy to Amazon and Walmart at the expense of PLUG’s shareholders. We see the stock falling back to earth in 2021 as the revenue from these two main customers declines. We think investors could lose -75% as the stock makes its way back to our fair value estimate of $5.70 per share.

    We don’t publish our research often, especially on the short side, but we would highlight our last published bearish report was on Akorn Pharmaceuticals, which declined -100% and filed for bankruptcy since our report was published 11 months ago.

    Our Plug Power report will highlight the following areas of concern:

    An unsustainable business model dating back to 1999.
    Subsidized revenue growth strategy that is not understood by investors.
    A long history of extreme equity dilution.
    Reliance on 40 year old technology that is non-proprietary with limited commercial applications.
    Massive insider selling across the Company.
    A management team with a history of failing to meet guidance provided to investors.
    A valuation detached from reality

    An unsustainable business model built on selling equity and 40 yr old technology

    For a company that so heavily promotes the idea of sustainability, we find it ironic that Plug Power has such an unsustainable business model. Plug Power is an old “story stock” with a flawed business model that dates back to 1999. Every few years, investor enthusiasm for alternative energy creates the perfect conditions for the stock to go parabolic. The only problem is that the management team never delivers on its revolutionary vision for the future and the stock comes crashing back down to earth. We’ve seen this boom/bust cycle play out in 2000, 2011, 2014, and now today.

    We believe Plug Power has a fundamentally flawed business model. Over the past twenty years, the business has never generated positive free cash flow, rather it has burned $1.1 billion of investor capital. In fact, Plug Power has reported negative gross margins in 15 of the past 20 years. 22 years into this business, Plug still struggles to sell its product for more than it costs to make it. This flawed business model is kept alive by nonstop equity raises, which we will discuss in more detail later.
    Dit verhaal lijkt als 2 druppels water op GTAT.

    www.iex.nl/Column/135825/Trending-op-...

    www.iex.nl/Column/136306/Trending-op-...

    www.iex.nl/Column/136277/GTAT-85-op-n...
  6. [verwijderd] 19 november 2020 09:17
    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 19 november 2020 09:09:

    [...]

    Dit verhaal lijkt als 2 druppels water op GTAT.

    www.iex.nl/Column/135825/Trending-op-...

    www.iex.nl/Column/136306/Trending-op-...

    www.iex.nl/Column/136277/GTAT-85-op-n...

    Wat er gaat gebeuren is dat de hele wereld vol gaat investeren in waterstof, dus linksom of rechtsom, alle waterstofbedrijven gaan het heel erg druk krijgen. En niet alleen overheden ook bedrijven uit zichzelf. Vliegtuigen en schepen worden straks allemaal op waterstof aangedreven.
  7. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 09:24
    quote:

    Look0406 schreef op 19 november 2020 09:17:

    [...]
    Wat er gaat gebeuren is dat de hele wereld vol gaat investeren in waterstof, dus linksom of rechtsom, alle waterstofbedrijven gaan het heel erg druk krijgen. En niet alleen overheden ook bedrijven uit zichzelf. Vliegtuigen en schepen worden straks allemaal op waterstof aangedreven.
    Als de insiders verkopen, dan kun je maar een ding doen en dat is VERKOPEN en hard weghollen.

    Of dacht je dat jij er meer verstand van hebt dan de insiders...???
  9. forum rang 8 objectief 19 november 2020 09:35
    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 19 november 2020 09:31:

    Ook leuk om te weten is dat men in ca 2000 ook al dacht dat waterstof de wereld zou gaan veroveren; de koers stond toen op ca 1200 dollar.

    Sindsdien is de koers dus met ca 98% gedaald........!!!!!
    Juist door die daling, is het voordeliger geworden tov. andere energie. Bedankt voor de opmerking.
  10. [verwijderd] 19 november 2020 09:40
    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 19 november 2020 09:24:

    [...]
    Als de insiders verkopen, dan kun je maar een ding doen en dat is VERKOPEN en hard weghollen.

    Of dacht je dat jij er meer verstand van hebt dan de insiders...???
    dit gebeurd bij alle beursgenoteerde bedrijven en bij plug is het waarschijnlijk dat ze op een bepaald moment opties krijgen en op een bepaalde vaste datum verkocht worden. Mocht het anders zijn dan is het een beloning voor het binnenhalen van bijna een miljard dollar aan nieuwe aandelen, een berg cash waar plug 5 jaar op vooruit kan.
  11. cdbe 19 november 2020 09:41
    Hoe komt het dzr dat alle grote olie bedrijven investeren in waterstof, om hun imago wat op te poetsen?
    Bij u zijn alle bedrijven flut van zodra ze grote stijgingen maken....
    De grote vraag die velen van ons zich hier afvragen is waar jij zoal in investeert maar dan komt er altijd zo een typisch antwoord van u...
  13. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 10:08
    quote:

    objectief schreef op 19 november 2020 09:35:

    [...]Juist door die daling, is het voordeliger geworden tov. andere energie. Bedankt voor de opmerking.
    PLUG is ondanks de enorme daling helemaal niet goedkoper geworden, Slimpie.

    De daling is praktisch geheel veroorzaakt door omgekeerde stocksplits.

    Dit flutbedrijf is slechts heel goed in een ding en dat is geld aftroggelen van domme aandeelhouders.

  14. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 10:09
    quote:

    Moneycollector schreef op 19 november 2020 10:04:

    Dit is natuurlijk wel een interessante ontwikkeling bij plug (vertaald):
    Wat velen niet beseffen, is dat er nu een ex-kabinetslid van Obama in de raad van bestuur zit. De overheidscontracten die op hun pad komen, zullen velen waarschijnlijk erg rijk maken.
    lol

    Dus jij beschuldigt dit bedrijf van corruptie.....!!!???
  17. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 10:30
    Revenue from Amazon & Walmart unlikely to persist and is a costly subsidy at the expense of PLUG shareholders

    PLUG had traded between $1 - $3 for the past five years until the beginning of 2020. The stock began to liftoff following the January 6, 2020 press release announcing the company had received a $172m order for forklift fuel cells from a Fortune 100 Customer.

    Source: Factset

    Curiously, there was no 8-k filed with the SEC to accompany this press release. This fact, along with comments from Plug Power’s CEO, Andy Marsh, made during the 2020 Business Update Call on January 30th, suggests that the customer was Amazon and related to the 2017 Amazon Transaction Agreement. This is important because we believe the stock has been propelled by the recent revenue growth momentum. However, we believe this growth is not sustainable for the reasons given below. We believe this growth disappointment will be the catalyst for the stock to rerate significantly lower.
    Here is where the Plug Power story gets interesting.

    Rewind back to 2017 and you see that PLUG’s stock price had fallen to $0.85 in Feb 2017. Faced with a stock price under $1, a deteriorating liquidity situation, and the prospect of being delisted from Nasdaq, PLUG was desperate for a quick fix. In an effort to boost credibility and revenue, the company struck a deal with Amazon that gave Amazon warrants to acquire large chunks of PLUG stock in exchange for purchase orders. The agreement was so generous and favorable to Amazon, that Walmart soon signed up for the same deal. An overview of the agreements can be found starting on page 38 of the 2019 10-K filing.

    We believe our report is the only in-depth look at the Amazon and Walmart Transaction Agreements. We believe the revenue from these agreements has fueled the +700% rise in the stock price; however, the nature of these agreements suggests the revenue from these two customers is likely to decline in 2021.

    The summary version of the Amazon and Walmart Transaction Agreements is that both companies were given warrants for up to 55.2m shares of PLUG stock in exchange for purchase orders (primarily fuel cells for warehouse forklifts) in $50m increments up to $600m total. Both companies were given warrants for 5.82m shares just for signing the agreement. At today’s stock price, this equates to a payout to Amazon and Walmart of $145m each with no strings attached. Neither party was required to purchase any products upfront, so you can see why each company took a flyer on this deal.

    The table below shows the various tranches of warrants and the revenue level that is needed to unlock each award. The Amazon and the Walmart agreements are essentially identical with the difference being Amazon has a lower strike price than Walmart ($1.19 vs. $2.12) for the first two tranches. The tranches highlighted are those that have already been awarded.

    Source: SEC filings

    After signing the agreement in 2017, Amazon put in an order for $50m of PLUG products. PLUG was trading at approximately $3 per share at time so AMZN was receiving ~$40m worth of stock in exchange for a $50m purchase order. As you can see, this is terrible deal for PLUG shareholders with AMZN getting the PLUG products for almost nothing. Interestingly, Walmart did not place $50m worth of orders even given these generous terms for nearly three years.

    These agreements with Amazon and Walmart are highly relevant because the strike prices were set so low that Amazon and Walmart stand to make more money off of the warrants than the cost of the products they have to purchase from PLUG. The higher the stock price goes, the more incentive Amazon and Walmart have to order products. For example, Walmart could unlock 7.27m shares worth $180m today by buying $50m worth of PLUG products. They could literally have the fuel cells delivered straight to a landfill and still come out $130m ahead courtesy of PLUG shareholders.

    A wonderful feedback loop was in place, but unfortunately on November 2, 2020, Amazon reached the last tranche of shares with a $1.19 strike price. The agreement now calls for Amazon to pay $13.81 per share from here on out. We believe this higher strike price will dramatically alter Amazon’s ordering behavior now that the free ride is over.

    Walmart appears to have also noticed this arbitrage opportunity and ordered $50m of products for the first time in Q3 2020 after not doing much of anything since signing the agreement back in 2017. Kudos to Walmart, so far they have received approximately $300m worth of stock in exchange for $50m of orders. Walmart has only unlocked 2nd Tranche A so they could conceivably place orders for another $150m worth of PLUG products in exchange for approximately $540m worth of stock! This is simply not a sustainable business model.

    We believe Walmart will continue to order for as long as this arbitrage opportunity exists; however, we see a dramatic decrease in orders coming from Amazon. This is important because Amazon and Walmart made up 72% of PLUG’s revenue for the first nine months of 2020.

    It is also concerning because if you strip out the subsidized revenue from Amazon and Walmart ($150m total YTD in 2020 vs. $0 in 2019), you see the rest of business is struggling mightily. Revenue for Q1-Q3 2020 would be down -52% yr/yr without the subsidized revenue from Amazon and Walmart. It’s worth noting that the fuel cells have a lifespan of 10 years so these orders are mostly one-time in nature and not smooth recurring revenue that would justify the stock trading at 28x revenue.

    Source: SEC filings
  18. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 10:32
    Plug Power has been kept alive by extreme equity dilution

    How is Plug Power still in business 20 years later if the business model is fundamentally flawed? The answer is nonstop equity dilution on a scale unrivaled by any public company we’ve come across. The number of PLUG shares outstanding has increased by 8,542% over the past 20 years. That is simply a staggering amount of dilution for shareholders.

    Source: SEC filings

    For the sake of comparison, Amazon has increased its share count by +70% over the past 20 years, Microsoft by +45%, and Apple has actually shrunk its share count by -31%.

    Source: Factset

    Amazingly, the growth in the number of PLUG shares outstanding since 2010 has actually kept pace with Moore’s law, which increases annually at +40% CAGR.

    source: SEC filings
    40 year old technology and limited commercial applications

    As we stated, Plug Power has been at this game with essentially the same technology for the past 20 years. The fuel cell technology (proton exchange membrane) that Plug products utilize was invented in the late 1980’s. PLUG is not making technological breakthroughs. Rather, they are attempting to use the same old technology and just make it cheaper to assemble. There is nothing wrong with this, in fact it’s a good business move, but investors need to understand that this isn’t a new technology that will revolutionize the transportation world. The only commercial application that has developed is fuel cells for warehouse forklifts. If this technology were superior or cost-effective, it would have much wider adoption by now. Fuel cells obviously work as a power source, but a business model predicated on selling them to customers that have access to cheaper electric batteries is a flawed model.

    Ironically, the rapid advancements in battery technology that have played a role in the current green energy euphoria actually make Plug’s products less competitive. Recharging a forklift with electricity from the grid is cheaper and requires less logistics than dealing with Plug’s hydrogen fuel cells.

    Plug Power’s technology is not new or proprietary. From the 2019 10-K:
  19. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 10:33
    Corporate governance questions, Massive Insider Selling

    Insider selling at Plug Power is occurring at an alarming pace and scale. This widespread behavior of corporate insiders contradicts the bullish narrative put forth by PLUG management. PLUG insiders have sold $106m worth of stock in 2020. This is a staggering number given that the entire market cap of PLUG was only $188m last year.

    There’s nothing wrong with insiders taking some chips off the table from time to time, but historically it has been a red flag when virtually every insider runs for the exit. Furthermore, a lot of the selling has been employees exercising their options early – often exercising options that still had 5-7 years remaining – in order to cash out now.

    An insider exercising an option 7 years early in order to sell at today’s prices is basically saying they think the stock will be lower 7 years from now than it is today. As anyone who has ever traded options knows, there is real value to future optionality, so to exercise options early indicates a dim view of the future.

    We find it interesting that insiders have sold a large amount of shares at prices as low as $4-5 per share as recently as February (after the Amazon order announcement but before the COVID-19 pandemic). The selling has continued throughout the year. The $106m of stock that has been sold by insiders this year has been done at an average price of $11.34 per share or -54% lower than the current stock price. We find it odd that these insiders would go to great lengths to dump their stock at $11.34 if the intrinsic value of the company was anywhere near the current stock price. We believe this widespread selling supports our view that insiders understand the Amazon and Walmart dynamic and realize that PLUG’s future revenue will not be anywhere near what is required to justify today’s stock price.

    PLUG insiders have sold $106m worth of stock in 2020.

    Source: SEC filings
    Insider sell occurs prior to yesterday's equity offering

    Just yesterday Plug Power announced yet another equity offering for $845m of new stock and we were surprised to see an insider selling shares just days prior to the announcement. The equity offering was announced on Monday, November 16th and the stock was priced at an -11% discount to its closing price. A review of the SEC filings shows that the Chief Operating Officer (Keith Schmid) sold another $1.9m worth of stock on Thursday, November 12th for $22.84. We also note that Mr. Schmid’s shares came from the early exercise of stock options that didn’t expire until 8/9/2026. The Form 4 filed with the SEC states Mr. Schmid's shares were sold pursuant to a 10b5-1 trading plan, which is a trading plan that allows insiders to set up a predetermined plan to sell stock in accordance with insider trading laws. What caught our attention is that this 10b5-1 trading plan was established on Tuesday, November 10th.

    source: SEC filing

    Equity offerings typically take time to plan and organize. Given our experience serving on public company boards, we find it hard to believe that the $845m equity offering wasn't already in the works on November 10th. We view the timing of this 10b5-1 trading plan as concerning as it relates to corporate governance of Plug Power.
    A management team with a history of failing to meet guidance provided to investors

    Plug Power boasts one of the most optimistic CEO’s, Andy Marsh, we have ever come across. As we learned from Trevor Milton and the Nikola debacle, over-promising and under-delivering is a dangerous combination in the public market. Currently, Mr. Marsh is touting guidance for the year 2024 (no real details for 2021, 2022, or 2023 however) of $1.2b in gross billings, $200m in operating income, and over 20% adjusted-EBITDA margins. Unfortunately Marsh, has a long history of providing guidance to investors that never materialize. Below are some examples from previous cycles.

    In December 2013, Marsh predicted on the television network CNBC that “in 2014 we will make money.” The Company went on to report a net loss of -$88m in 2014.

    Investors betting on Marsh’s 2024 guidance should be aware that Mr. Marsh has a terrible history when it comes to forecasting revenue and shipments. A good example of his inability to accurately forecast demand for his company was shown in PLUG’s 2010 guidance:

    “Confident in its material handling and prime power markets, Plug Power issued the following milestones for 2010:

    Dramatically increase our shipments, shipping between 2,100 and 2,300 systems, consisting of 1,100 GenDrive and 1,000 GenSys fuel cell units;
    Generate between mid-$40 and low-$50 million in revenue;
    Achieve a gross margin percentage in the mid-teens”

    Actual 2010 revenue: $19.5m (-57% shortfall from the mid-point of the range)

    Actual 2010 product shipments: 650 (-70% shortfall)

    Actual 2010 gross margin: -51%

    We also point to the following data points as evidence of promotional tendencies:

    Plug Power no longer produces quarterly earnings reports, instead they opt for “shareholder letters” which are heavy on buzzwords and light on information. The Q3 2020 shareholder letter was 12 pages long but contained zero commentary on the company’s revenue. Instead PLUG focuses on empty claims such as:

    “Issued First Ever Convertible Green Bond in the US”

    We find this claim odd. All Plug did was sell a convertible bond, which is something they have done several times in the past (as recently as September 2019 and March 2018), yet the packaging from management makes it seems as if something new and exciting has happened.
  20. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 19 november 2020 10:34
    “World’s first PEM technology gigafactory”

    We find this messaging odd too, since the term “gigafactory” was made up by Elon Musk at Telsa. A gigafactory is simply a factory, but again management promotes things in a way that seems revolutionary.

    Investors should also be aware that the media likes to run with the hydrogen narrative from time to time and each time it has flamed out. We remember reading an article published in 2000 that predicted Plug Power’s stock price would increase 100x by 2010. At the time PLUG was trading at $930.00 (reverse-split adjusted) so this prediction would have resulted in a stock price of $93,000.00. The actual price in 2010 was $6.90.

    Source: Bloomberg & MSN Money Central

    In that same vein, we think it’s telling that Mr. Marsh has appeared on the CNBC television show “Mad Money” twice in the past six months (July & October 2020). There’s nothing inherently wrong with going on CNBC, but twice in six months seems like a lot for a company selling forklift components in upstate New York.

    Stock Price Completely Detached From Reality

    Plug Power is currently trading at an enterprise value over $8.5b. This equates to an EV/Sales multiple of 28.5x, which is absurd given the low-margin, cyclical, and lumpy nature of the business model. Furthermore, our analysis of the Amazon & Walmart agreements suggests we are likely seeing peak revenue for Plug. The combination of declining revenue and valuation multiple compression would have a devastating impact on PLUG’s stock price.

    The comparable peer group trades at an average of 3.3x revenue and 15x EBITDA. We prefer to use valuation approaches based on earning and free cash flow, but since PLUG generates neither, we use revenue as our valuation input. Applying the peer group revenue multiple to PLUG arrives at an intrinsic value of $3.50 per share or -85% decline from today’s stock price.

    source: Factset

    A more generous approach to valuation would be to use PLUG’s average EV/Sales multiple over the past 10 years of 6.09x. This seems like a fair method given that the business model hasn’t changed during this period. Applying PLUG’s historical revenue multiple arrives at an intrinsic value of $5.70 per share or -75% decline from today’s stock price.

    source: Factset

    We think investors fortunate to have caught this wave of momentum should take profits immediately. We believe the stock could decline -75% in the next 12 months as investors realize the Amazon and Walmart revenue is not sustainable without the free warrants to subsidize purchase orders.

    Even if Mr. Marsh is somehow able to deliver on his 2024 targets of $1.2b of revenue and $200m of operating income (a goal we think is virtually impossible to achieve), we estimate fair value for the stock would be $10.50 per share or -55% decline from the current price. The fact that the best case outcome still results in loss of more than -50% highlights the tremendous asymmetry here.

    Disclosure: I am/we are short PLUG.
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