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Home  /   Forum   /   Eurocastle   /   Forse winst met beursgang Dobank

Aandeel Eurocastle Investment AEX:ECT.NL, GB00B94QM994

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
6,000   0,000   (0,00%) Dagrange 0,000 - 0,000 0   Gem. (3M) 251

Forse winst met beursgang Dobank

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41 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 2 3 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 31 juli 2017 21:01
    quote:

    gyrolando schreef op 31 juli 2017 18:33:

    Om het zwart te zeggen ze hebben te goedkoop verkocht.
    Nee, dat is niet waar; bij een IPO moet de verkoper een redelijke prijs vragen zodat de IPO een succes wordt en iedereen er wat aan verdient.
    Het is nooit mogelijk om precies de juiste waarde te krijgen.

    Kijk maar naar ASR en ABN AMRO.
  3. [verwijderd] 4 augustus 2017 19:19
    Vergeet de beurskoers, er zitten een aantal grootaandeelhouders die willen cashen maar het niet anders kunnen dan contant dividend te ontvangen. En die waren boos (vandaag, in de confcall) dat er minder cash werd uitgekeerd dan ze dachten en blijven dus verkopen. Dom, want dit is een prachtclubje. Van de koerswinst zul je het hier dus ook voorlopig niet moeten hebben. Gewoon het dividend incasseren en direct weer omzetten in nieuwe aandelen ECT, zo,lang die koers onder de €11 blijft.
  4. gyronando 5 augustus 2017 04:05
    quote:

    gyrolando schreef op 12 juli 2017 23:10:

    [...]
    voor dat je begin te besteden, er is door dobank 26 miljoen
    euro dividend betaald aan eurocastle , 40 cent per aandeel eurocastle.
    het reguliere dividend 15 cent maakt 55 cent per aandeel
    Het zou kunnen dat het dividend ophoudt bij 55 cent in augustus.
    ik begrijp uit het persbericht dat het 41 cent wordt.
    correct me if I am wrong.
  7. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 10 augustus 2017 16:11
    doBank, The Largest Italian NPL Servicer, Surges After Its IPO
    Jul. 18, 2017 1:39 PM ET|
    1 comment|
    About: Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG), Includes: BMDPY, ISNPY, UNCFY, VENBF

    Paolo Gorgo
    Special situations, long-term horizon, long only
    (590 followers)
    Summary

    doBank, the largest Italian non-performing loan servicer, made its debut in the Milan stock market last week on Friday. Shares surged 14%, making doBank Italy’s largest IPO in 2017.

    doBank’s IPO is a striking success for Fortress, which remains doBank’s largest shareholders, now basically for free. A clever result achieved in less than 2 years.

    While doBank is expected to remain a “hot stock” for the future, we believe investing in Fortress-related Eurocastle may be a better way to play the Italian NPL game.

    doBank S.p.A., formerly known as UniCredit Credit Management Bank, made its debut on the Italian stock exchange last week. Fortress (NYSE:FIG) associated entities, that acquired the company in 2015, will retain roughly a 55.6% interest in doBank, or 51.2% should the greenshoe option be exercised in full.

    doBank's IPO represents a great financial success for Fortress (and its existing shareholders), as the company has been able, in less than 20 months, to maximize its investment in doBank, while retaining its majority and also preserving the ownership of a € 2.4 billion GBV NPL portfolio that was part of the original doBank acquisition, as we will explain in a moment.

    However, investors who have the possibility to buy stocks on the Amsterdam exchange might consider a Fortress-managed entity, Eurocastle, as a way to profit from doBank's very successful IPO.

    Some background to the Italian NPL market

    The Italian banking system has accumulated a large amount of gross non-performing exposures. These NPEs more than doubled from approximately €133 billion at the end of 2009 to €329 billion in September 2016, as resumed in this chart by Ernst & Young, based on Bank of Italy's Statistical Bulletin IV, published in December 2016:

    Italian banks have been put under pressure by the ECB to manage more efficiently this large amount of deteriorated loans that weighs on their balance sheets.

    To give you just a quick visual idea of the size of this problem for the Italian banking system, here is another chart taken from the same Ernst & Young report that highlights both the NPE coverage ratio and the gross NPE ratio, in percentage, for some of Italy's largest banks.

    On the right side of this chart, you will find some very well known names, like Banca Monte Dei Paschi (OTCPK:BMDPY), Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca (OTC:VENBF), that have been recently in the news for their rescues, as reported also here on SA (I, II).

    A percentage of NPEs exceeding 30% of total lending brought these banks on their knees.

    Italy's lack of progress in tackling its bad loan problem has had a negative impact on its overall economic climate.

    External, 3rd party NPL servicing groups have emerged as essential tools, for most Italian banks, to address their NPE problem.
    doBank: Italy's largest IPO in 2017, four times oversubscribed, makes its debut with a 14% price increase

    doBank is Italy's largest 3rd party NPL servicing group, with roughly €81 billion GBV of loans under management.

    UniCredit (OTCPK:UNCFY) and Intesa Sanpaolo (OTCPK:ISNPY), together with some Fortress-associated funds, represent doBank's largest customers, amounting to roughly 84% of revenues. All these customers have multi-annual servicing agreement with doBank.

    doBank claims a 62% market share of today's 3rd party NPL servicing market in Italy, as stated in its IPO filing (link, in Italian). doBank's share represents nearly one-third of the total gross NPLs present on the Italian market.
  8. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 10 augustus 2017 16:11
    2)
    Here are a few essential data for the company:

    PWC expects that "the share of bad loans managed by independent non-performing loan servicers will continue to rise in the near future, reaching around 200 billion euros by 2018".

    In a press conference (link, in Italian) announcing the IPO, doBank's CEO, Andrea Mangoni, underlined some of the strengths of his company:

    a Cet1 in excess of 20%;

    an EBITDA margin in excess of 30%;

    long term visibility into a very good cash flow generation;

    a commitment to returning at least 65% of profits to investors through dividends;

    a 44% increase of EBITDA in Q1 2017 (Y/Y).

    Here is some positive commentary about doBank's future prospective:

    "We believe it to be an excellent investment given doBank's market positioning and the fact that bad loan management is a top priority for Italian banks - and therefore for the country - at this juncture," said Gerardo Murano at ADB Corporate Advisory.

    Given its leading position in what is now perceived as a "sweet spot" in the NPL market, it is not surprising that the IPO was a great success.

    Shares surged 14% on their first trading day, making doBank Italy's largest IPO in 2017.

    The company listed last week on Friday at €9 per share, and closed at €10.90 on Monday, a 21% increase from its IPO price in just two trading days.
    A striking success for Fortress: now doBank's largest shareholder, basically for free

    Fortress acquired UniCredit's debt collector unit UCCMB in October 2015. The company was soon renamed doBank.

    The price paid for this acquisition was €530 million, but it did also include a €2.4 billion GBV NPL portfolio.

    In September 2016, the €2.4 billion NPL portfolio was part of a spin off into a SPV called Romeo. doBank now owns 5% only of this SPV, while the remaining 95% belongs to Fortress related entities.

    Between March 2016 and October 2016, doBank acquired Italfondiario from Intesa Sanpaolo and some Fortress associated companies. The price paid for this additional purchase was €22.3 million in total.

    Italfondiario was then merged into doBank, creating Italy's largest 3rd party NPL servicing group, holding long-term contracts with Italy's two largest banks, Unicredit and Intesa.

    In total, Fortress spent roughly €552.5 million to build Italy's largest 3rd party NPL servicing group and acquire a €2.4 billion GBV NPL portfolio.

    However, the total value of the Romeo SPV can be estimated in the €200 million range, and should be almost completely deducted from Fortress' total acquisition cost to estimate the correct expenditure for doBank only.

    In May 2017, before its IPO, doBank paid a dividend of €52.3 million to its existing shareholders, i.e., Fortress, and sold Gextra, a specialized player in small debt collection services, to Lindorff Italy.

    All these activities reduce Fortress' total commitment to doBank "as it was listed" to less than €300 million. Guess how much Fortress got for listing less than half of doBank?

    More than €300 million.

    Even if you don't totally agree with our simplified calculations, it should be noted that, in less than 2 years, Fortress has been capable of reorganizing doBank, reducing its acquisition cost/maximizing its potential profit and bringing, with perfect timing, a leading NPL servicer to a very successful IPO.
    Eurocastle, a Fortress-managed entity, an even better way to play the Italian NPL game?

    Although most Italian investors ignore it, it was possible to "own" and invest in doBank long before the company made its IPO.

    Eurocastle, a Fortress-managed company, listed on Euronext Amsterdam Exchange under the symbol "ECT", has historically been the Fortress vehicle owning 50% of doBank, in addition to non-performing loans and other real estate related assets in Italy.

    It should be noted that Eurocastle is relatively illiquid, and trades an average of 25,000 shares/day.

    The company has already achieved a very good performance in the last 12 months, as shown in this 1-year chart:

    In addition to this performance, it should be noted that the company is also paying a decent dividend:

    We believe that the market is still discounting the positive effect of doBank's listing on Eurocastle's NAV.

    First, let's have a look at Eurocastle's main existing segments, using a slide from its Q1 2017 presentation:
  9. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 10 augustus 2017 16:12
    3)
    In a press release made on July 12th, Eurocastle gives a hint of what doBank's listing may mean for Eurocastle's shareholders:

    The price of €9.00 per share equates to a market capitalisation of doBank of €704 million. Eurocastle's most recently reported adjusted NAV for its 50% interest of doBank is €270 million.

    Some back of the envelope calculation:

    assuming Eurocastle sold half of its doBank interest, the company should receive roughly €175 million that may be invested into the acquisition of additional NPLs, hopefully generating the company's targeted 15% to 20% returns;
    the value of its remaining share of doBank (25%) could now be directly linked to doBank's price on the Milan stock exchange (a hot stock), to better estimate its real market value.

    Here is a closer look at Eurocastle's segments, with their estimated NAV, and where we have added our estimates post doBank IPO:

    If doBank is trading in the €10 range (a conservative price, as we write), and our assumptions are right, we estimate a NAV of roughly €10.79 for Eurocastle.

    Even if the company has traditionally traded below its full NAV, we believe that there is still good room for Eurocastle shares to play "catch up" with the doBank euphoria in the next few weeks - and we wouldn't discount the possibility that, longer term, investing the cash generated by the doBank's IPO into more NPL pools may be quite rewarding for Eurocastle investors.

    Disclosure: I am/we are long AMS:ECT.

    I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Additional disclosure: I am/we are long Eurocastle (AMS:ETC)

    Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

    seekingalpha.com/article/4088447-doba...
  10. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 11 augustus 2017 12:05
    Eurocastle neemt Italiaanse leningen over
    1 uur geleden

    GUERNSEY (AFN) - Eurocastle Investment neemt samen met onderdelen van de Fortress Investment Group een Italiaanse leningenportefeuille over ter waarde van 234 miljoen euro. Dat maakte de beursgenoteerde investeerder in Italiaanse vastgoedleningen bekend.

    Het beheer van de leningen, waaronder zowel goede als niet-presterende kredieten, is in handen van kredietmanager Italfondiario. Dat is een dochter van doBank. Eurocastle verwacht in de portefeuille tussen de 10 miljoen euro en 20 miljoen euro te investeren. Dat zal gebeuren nadat de financiering rond is, wat waarschijnlijk in het vierde kwartaal het geval is.
  11. Izette 19 september 2017 09:02
    quote:

    gyrolando schreef op 12 juli 2017 19:06:

    Volgens Manus hebben we komende augustus ook recht op het uitbetaalde dividend van Dobank in mei ontvangen door eurocastle.
    Alles bij elkaar krijgen we 65 cent dividend alleen al in augustus.
    Inmiddels heb ik in augustus 0.41 cent dividend ontvangen.
    Klopt het we nog 0.24 cent te goed hebben?
  12. [verwijderd] 19 september 2017 10:55
    quote:

    Izette schreef op 19 september 2017 09:02:

    [...]

    Inmiddels heb ik in augustus 0.41 cent dividend ontvangen.
    Klopt het we nog 0.24 cent te goed hebben?
    Nee, Eurocastle heeft nog wat achter de hand gehouden en "slechts" €0,41 uitbetaald over het tweede kwartaal.
    En ja, want het is dus achter de hand gehouden en dan komt dat wel een keer onze kant op.

    En let op het derde kwartaal. Een deel van de verkoopopbrengst van het doBank belang (€62m) is opzij gezet om als dividend uitbetaald te worden, de rest (€84m) wordt als kapitaal gezien. Maar als dat niet tijdig wordt aangewend zal dat ook tzt als dividend worden uitgekeerd.

    Het is altijd even afwachten hoe de dividendpot zich bij ECT ontwikkelt, maar als er geen gekke dingen gebeuren zal die €62 miljoen (€1,00 per aandeel) dus als extra dividend over het derde kwartaal uitgekeerd moeten gaan worden. Het gaat overigens, net als iedere dividenduitkering, ten koste van de NAV dus veel schiet je er niet mee op. Belangrijker is hoe de NAV zich ontwikkelt, vooral FINO zou daar de komende tijd een bijdrage aan kunnen gaan leveren.
  13. gyronando 21 september 2017 00:14
    [quote alias=gyrolando id=10201186 date=201708050405]
    [...]
    ik begrijp uit het persbericht dat het 41 cent wordt.
    correct me if I am wrong.
    [/quote
    ja ik heb dit ook ontvangen, de voorgaande post van Darts gaat dieperin
    op de ontwikkelingen betreffende verwachtingen in de toekomst.
    Heb ik ook nog een vraag aan kampioen darts wat is Fino exact?
  14. [verwijderd] 26 september 2017 23:13
    Die €0,41 klopt, bestond uit €0,15 regulier en €0,26 extra dividend.

    Fino is een grote portefeuille van slechte leningen die ze, samen met Fortress, van Unicredit hebben overgenomen. Ze waren er duidelijk erg blij mee, maar deden geheimzinnig welk belang ze nu in die portefeuille hebben gekregen. Waarschijnlijk omdat ze er zo weinig voor betaald hebben, maar dat zal later moeten blijken. Lees eens het volgende krantenbericht hierover: www.glistatigenerali.com/banche/unicr...
    (Openen in Chrome, en dan met rechtermuisknop op "vertalen" drukken)
  15. Cybertom 2 oktober 2017 12:19
    De NAV Q3 per aandeel zal zijn: Q2 10,49 minus 0,41 dividend = 10,08 plus DoBank 0,49 (op basis van koers 30/09 van 10,98)= 10,57. Daarbij komen nog de resultaten uit de NPL´s, deze zijn wat lastiger in te schatten. Kortom waarschijnlijk weer een mooie stijging! Duidelijk dat de koers hierbij achterblijft.
  18. Cybertom 13 oktober 2017 09:33
    Kleine update: koers op moment van schrijven € 12,62. Inmiddels een winst van 72.400.000, ofwel € 1,19 per aandeel. Dat heb ik nog niet teruggezien in de koers. De NAV per aandeel zal ruim de € 11 overstijgen, naast een prachtig dividend lijkt het me ook, dat een flinke koerswinst gerechtvaardigd zou zijn.
  20. forum rang 10 DeZwarteRidder 17 oktober 2017 12:45
    www.reuters.com/article/brief-dobank-...

    BRIEF-DoBank to manage 8 bln euros in Monte dei Paschi's bad debts
    Reuters Staff
    1 MIN READ
    Oct 17 (Reuters) - Italian debt servicing group DoBank says:

    * Has reached preliminary deal to manage 8 billion euros in bad loans as part of Monte dei Paschi’s 26 billion euro ($30.6 billion) non-performing loan securitisation.

    * Expects to sign final servicing contract by year-end when the securitisation notes will be issued and to start managing the portfolio in Q1 2018. Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: ($1 = 0.8503 euros) (Reporting by Milan Newsroom, editing by Louise Heavens)
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