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Home  /   Forum   /   TomTom   /   Tom Tom april 2017

Aandeel TomTom AEX:TOM2.NL, NL0013332471

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
4,974   +0,070   (+1,43%) Dagrange 4,902 - 5,020 105.024   Gem. (3M) 201,4K

Tom Tom april 2017

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2.857 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 49 50 51 52 53 ... 143 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. Juun 12 april 2017 09:29
    TomTom
    “TomTom is nog steeds bezig om uit te breken en zit al tijden tegen die 9 euro aan te hikken. Het is even afwachten of de koers door die weerstand heen breekt. Als je kortetermijntrader bent, zou ik nu even uitstappen en winst pakken, maar op de lange termijn blijf ik zeker positief over TomTom.” Bekijk hier de actuele koers van het aandeel TomTom.
    - See more at: www.beursduivel.be/Column/262989/Koop...
    www.beursduivel.be/Column/262989/Koop...
  3. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:31
    Stukje van Kepler

    Their EBITDA and FCF growth are about to accelerate, leaving upside to valuation
    Following continued strong bookings and with the proliferation of ADAS, we have become more positive about the growth in Automotive/Licensing and see a 14% sales CAGR for 2016-20E. With regards to Telematics, ongoing solid net subscriber adds lead us to forecast a growth rate of 7.5%. When combined, this results in a 2016-20E CAGR of 12% for combined Automotive, Licensing and Telematics sales. Despite a slightly more conservative sales growth forecast than what management is expecting, we estimate that an ever richer revenue mix combined with a levelling off of investments will drive a 5% gross profit and a 12% EBITDA CAGR for 2016-20E for the group. Furthermore, free cash flow generation is set to improve strongly in the coming years. Our updated SOP valuation translates into a fair value per share of EUR10, up from EUR7.6 previously. As our increased target price points to some 13% upside, we upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy.

    However, our EBITDA and FCF forecasts for the coming years
    have increased on the back of the increased confidence in the growth
    potential of the Automotive business and the resulting operating leverage.
    We currently model a 2016-20E CAGR of 12% for combined Automotive,
    Licensing and Telematics sales, compared with management’s expectation
    for c. 15% growth.
    Valuation model
    Our 2018E SOP valuation points to a fair value of EUR10, which assumes
    target EV/sales multiples for Automotive & Licensing, Telematics and
    Consumer of 3.0x, 5.5x and 0.5x, respectively. Even if we value the
    troubled Consumer business at zero, we derive a fair value of EUR9.3. At
    EUR10, the shares would trade at 2.1x EV/Sales and 9.0x EV/EBITDA for
    2020E.
  7. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:35
    Looking at its key regional markets, Europe and North America, we estimate
    TomTom is the number two player in Automotive/Licensing. TomTom is number two
    in navigable maps for automotive applications, behind Here. Furthermore, TomTom
    is a leading provider of traffic information, with a number on position in Europe. Itslargest competitors are Here and Inrix. As for navigation software, TomTom
    competes with companies like Here, NNG, TeleNav and Electrobit.
    While Google also owns a map database suitable for navigation, Google does not
    compete directly with TomTom and Here in the automotive market. Google Maps is
    server-based and requires access to internet to work,     while the map data used in
    embedded navigation is usually stored in the system. Although we think it would be
    technically feasible for Google to develop an offline solution, we doubt it will ever pursue that option, as it does not fit its search- and advertising-driven business
    model. While not active in the automotive market, Google Maps is very popular
    among smartphone and internet users.
  10. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:39
    Historically, map sales to OEMs and their Tier 1 suppliers depended on car sales and
    the penetration of in-dash navigation systems in cars. Assuming that car sales in
    Europe and North America grow by 1-2% per year and based on the expectation by
    IHS that the penetration of in-dash navigation will grow from c. 29% in 2016 to
    approximately 36% in 2020, the addressable market will grow by 6-8% per year.
    However, with the advent of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and
    eventually autonomous driving (AD), new use cases for maps emerge. To address
    these opportunities, TomTom and Here have added additional layers to their maps.
    We think the number of cars with ADAS will increase significantly in the coming
    years, thereby expanding the addressable market for TomTom Automotive.
    ADAS is designed to avoid collisions and accidents working with technologies that
    alert drivers to potential problems or help avoid collisions by implementing
    safeguards and taking control of the vehicle. We see ADAS and ultimately
    autonomous driving as secular trends. With accidents largely due to human error
    (93% of accidents), ADAS could prevent millions of crashes and reduce the severity
    of injuries and property damage while increasing driver comfort and improving
    mobility.
    A broad range of ADAS applications is already available and several of these
    applications require precise localisation of the car on the road and need to know
    what is ahead when driving the car. Cars are increasingly equipped with sensors, but
    these sensors have their limitations, as they cannot see around curves or through big
    trucks. Furthermore, they are vulnerable to weather conditions like fog or heavy
    rain. Even if the sensors reach out for 100m, with a car driving at a speed of 100km/h
    the ADAS only has a sensing horizon of 3.6 seconds,     which does not leave driver
    assistance systems much time to respond. Hence, for certain ADAS applications
    enhanced map data and/or real-time information about traffic and road conditions
    are required for cars to see beyond their sensors.
  11. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:41
    Management of TomTom has publicly stated, for example in the Q3 conference call
    in October, that ADAS is likely to become mainstream in 2018-19 based on RFQs
    they are involved in. Management also added that maps with ADAS attributes are
    selling at 15-20% premium over non-ADAS maps. Until then we had been cautious
    about the possibility of pricing to meaningfully contribute to the revenue growth in
    Automotive. Hence, this statement by management has made us more positive.
    In addition to ADAS, we see market share gains as another reason why TomTom
    could outpace the baseline growth of 6-8% based on growing car sales and rising
    penetration of in-dash navigation.
    Prior to the disposal by former parent company Nokia, Here dominated the
    automotive market with an estimated market share of more than 80% based on the
    number of cars equipped with its map. However, TomTom has reported strong
    bookings growth over the last four years, from EUR130m in 2013 to more than
    EUR300m in 2016. While part of the bookings growth could be explained by growth
    of the market, we think the size of the increase in bookings indicates that TomTom
    has been gaining share from Here. We do not think TomTom always has the better
    map, we think this differs per country and depends on the attributes that clients
    wants to have, but we think TomTom is ahead of Here in its move to a real-time map
    making platform. As such, we think the area where TomTom may have an advantage
    is in the cost of keeping its map database up to date and the publication of updated
    maps. Furthermore, the introduction of the NDS format, which had been pushed by
    the German automotive sector, has lowered costs to switch between Here and
    TomTom for OEMs and their tier-1 suppliers. In the past, TomTom and Here used
    proprietary formats for the delivery of map data, so there were costs involved for
    the OEM and its tier-1 supplier if they wanted to switch map supplier.
  12. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:44
    quote:

    W schreef op 12 april 2017 09:00:

    [...]

    Kepler Cheuvreux
    sterk, uitgebreid rapport
    geef hier even de samenvattende punten
    ze ondersteunen het voor cijfers

    advies verandering van HOLD naar BUY target price 10 euro

    -Ebitda and FCF growth are abt to accelerate, leaving upside to valuation

    - strong bookings and with the proliferartion of ADAS , we hv become more positive abt the growth in Automotive/Licensing

    - Telematics , ongoing solid net subscriber adds lead us to forecast continued growth

    - consumer we value at zero, decline ongoing.

    BUY PT 10 euro
    Dankje klinkt goed!
    Weet je toevallig waardoor ze positiever zijn geworden. geluiden vanuit de markt of gesprekken met management/road show?
  14. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:45
    While the map database has been a scarce asset ever since TomTom acquired Tele
    Atlas in 2008, the company has struggled to monetise this asset. For sure, its
    relatively modest market share compared with Here did not help. More recently,
    investments in a new map making platform weighed on earnings and cash flow
    generation.
    However, we think the situation is set to improve, and we look for meaningful
    operating leverage. First, double-digit growth in combined Automotive and
    Licensing sales will help. We think TomTom generates a gross margin of at least 80%
    on the incremental revenues. Second, we believe the increase in investments will
    level off, resulting in a high drop-through of incremental sales and gross profit into
    EBITDA as well as improving conversion of EBITDA into free cash flow.
    In recent years, one key area of investment has been TomTom’s a new map-making
    platform. This new platform allows for the automated processing and validation of
    changes as well as for real-time publishing of incremental map changes. With the
    increasing use of map data in ADAS, there is an ever increasing need for maps to be accurate and up-to-date. In the past the validation of changes was time-consuming,
    and fresh maps were typically released only once per quarter. In addition to
    providing the required accuracy and freshness, the improved data validation and
    fusion process has also made it cheaper to maintain the database. As map
    requirements will continue increase, we do not expect spending to decline.
    However, with TomTom having switched over from its legacy platforms to its new
    platform, we think the largest step-up in R&D investments is behind.
    All in all, we estimate a 14% sales CAGR for 2016-20E will translate into an EBITDA
    CAGR for that same period of 22%.

    To be able to offer high-quality real-time maps and real-time information on traffic
    and road conditions, TomTom and HERE may increasingly have to rely on data
    collected by cars (e.g. through sensors). As such, part of the data a car manufacturer
    will source from the map vendors will be based on its own inputs. We suspect that
    large OEMs in particular will seek to use this in their negotiations with TomTom and
    HERE. In this context we would highlight the agreement that Mobileye and Here
    have signed earlier this year. Its REM technology allows Mobileye to extract
    landmarks and roadway information from crowdsourced, real time data that is
    collected from vehicles that are equipped with cameras and Mobileye’s EyeQ chip.
    The resulting Roadbook data will be sold to Here, with the revenues to be split by
    Mobileye and the OEMs. In addition to Here, Mobileye has signed an agreement
    with Japanese mapping company Zenrin. Furthermore, Mobileye has publicly stated
    it is in discussion with at least one other map maker, and given Mobileye’s strong
    market position, we would not be surprised if TomTom follows Here and Zenrin. As
    for TomTom’s business model, the introduction of autonomous driving could result
    in an increase in the price of the map, but the positive earnings impact of this
    increase might at least be partly offset by the price paid to car makers and
    companies like Mobileye that provide some of the data to build and maintain the HD
    map and RoadDNA.
  15. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:46

    denk dat als TT zich rond de 9 euro kan houden naar de cijfer-presentatie toe en de indicaties zijn confirmerend voor de groei-divisies met een mogelijke afsplitsing van consumer dan gaat het aandeel een nieuwe range vinden tussen de 10 en 12 euro, daar is echt niet veel voor nodig, enkel een positieve impuls vanuit TT.

    zelfs Barclays, die nog immer negatief zijn voor advies, baseren dit op de aftakeling van consumer en niet vanwege de andere 3 divisies, die zien ze juist als upcoming contributors
    Barclays heeft nu eenmaal volgers onder de Britse Fond Managers en als die ooit van advies veranderen, matigen de short-spelers vanzelf.

  16. forum rang 6 Dutchy Ron 12 april 2017 09:50
    Furthermore, Mobileye has publicly stated it is in discussion with at least one other map maker, and given Mobileye’s strong market position, we would not be surprised if TomTom follows Here and Zenrin. As for TomTom’s business model, the introduction of autonomous driving could result in an increase in the price of the map, but the positive earnings impact of this increase might at least be partly offset by the price paid to car makers and companies like Mobileye that provide some of the data to build and maintain the HD map and RoadDNA.
  17. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:52
    As for working capital, the shift from product sales (PNDs) to revenues from content
    and services likely means that inventories will decline in the coming years. One
    particular item worth mentioning is deferred revenue. Automotive and Consumer
    deferred revenue is mostly driven by upfront payments from customers for multiyear
    content and service deliveries (e.g. traffic and map updates). With growth in
    Automotive more than offsetting declines in Consumer, we think deferred revenues
    will increase in the coming years, thereby supporting free cash flows.
    TomTom’s free cash flow generation, and hence its FCF yield, has been rather poor
    in recent years. However, with the improvement in free cash flow, its yield will also
    improve, to about 5% by 2020E. Even if the company were to pursue some small
    bolt-on acquisitions in Telematics, its net cash balance is likely to grow nicely in the
    coming years. As such, potential cash returns to shareholders (either dividends or
    buybacks) could move up the agenda.
  19. [verwijderd] 12 april 2017 09:53
    quote:

    trend follower schreef op 12 april 2017 09:44:

    [...]

    Dankje klinkt goed!
    Weet je toevallig waardoor ze positiever zijn geworden. geluiden vanuit de markt of gesprekken met management/road show?
    het is een Q and A report ( in de vorm van question and answers)
    ze laten zich niet uit of dit intern is, of dat het uit gesprek komt met de CEO of CFO van TT ( denk intern)

    de positiviteit komt voornamelijk vanwege dat ze ervan uitgaan dat Automotive/licensing begint te vuren en dat Telematics kan blijven doorgroeien

    verder zij ze voor de Lange Termijn groei iets gematigder dan HG zelf, maar dat is gepiel in de marge
    het voornaamste is, zie ook Barclays, wat doet TT voor uitstraling naar de markt toe: " gaat de focus nu echt naar de groei-divisies of blijven we nog steeds een PND/consumer biz in decline, die probeert via horloges en camera's TT nog als een consumer brand-naam te verdedigen " ?

    het is toch duidelijk DE MARKT LUST DE MIX VAN BUSINESS ONDERDELEN BINNEN TT NIET, dus HG doe er wat aan en ga verder privé door met je familie voor consumer en laat het beursgenoteerd TT groeien met de 3 andere divisies.
2.857 Posts
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