Aandeel Biocartis BRU:BCART.BL, BE0974281132

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brightlight schreef op 3 maart 2020 12:06:

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Iedereen wacht op donderdag, zoveel is duidelijk. Echter, CGCDLR heeft een punt. Eigenlijk betalen we momenteel maar 2 € per aandeel. Dit is uiteraard meer dan belachelijk, kafka eigenlijk.
BL

quote:

brightlight schreef op 3 maart 2020 12:06:

[...]
Iedereen wacht op donderdag, zoveel is duidelijk. Echter, CGCDLR heeft een punt. Eigenlijk betalen we momenteel maar 2 € per aandeel. Dit is uiteraard meer dan belachelijk, kafka eigenlijk.
BL

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Gijpie schreef op 3 maart 2020 16:27:

When the financing was tight bearly an instrument on the market and no tests approved the share price was 12 or higher all of this is adressed a lot of test weating for FDA clearance and every revieuw positive now the share price is 5 . This is absurde.

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Flatlander schreef op 3 maart 2020 13:38:

BL

One thing that is evident from the Cepheid ppts. They were able to take advantage of public health emergencies such as the H1N1 Flu to garner quick approvals for diagnostic use. Most cancers are not recognized as a communicable disease, so it is easier to extend review periods under the RUO designation.

FL

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brightlight schreef op 2 maart 2020 19:19:

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Talking about the size of the opportunity, Biocartis themselves indicate on page 11 of their corporate presentation that the total addressable market for Idylla (as far as annual cartridge volume is concerned) should range between 18M and 29M. It is not clear what percentage of that market they aim to capture. Let's take 10% of the low end, namely 1.8M cartridges sold per year. Multiply that by 100 Euro (approximate average selling price last year) and you get a peak sales value of 180M Euros. Currently, sales (for cartridges) are at roughly 18M Euro (the exact number we will know on friday). So in that scenario there is the potential to multiply cartridge sales by 10. The question is of course WHAT exact market share they are aiming for and WHEN they will reach those numbers. It would be nice if Bcart would shed some clarity on these numbers next friday. We cannot compare (exactly) the Bcart number to the numbers in your market study, because only the numbers for the Genomics MDx market as a whole are provided in the study. These numbers speak of 1660M$ for the year 2020. It is not clear what time frame the Bcart numbers refer to, still their numbers seem to be roughly in the neighbourhood of the market study numbers. Anyway, FL, what is your take on the possible Bcart market share and what is your take on the 'when' question?
BL

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Flatlander schreef op 3 maart 2020 22:37:

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BL

It is difficult to pin down a market share before BCART has even begun selling into the diagnostic market in the U.S., China, Japan etc. We have been told that the traction in the EU has been good and that Idylla is now being used in a first line MDx capacity at numerous locations. Yet specific numbers have not been provided for the EU.

I believe that BCART has a powerful incentive for adoption in the US that cannot presently be matched by competitors. According to EACORP the insurers are reimbursing KRAS assays at U.S. $193. BCART sold the KRAS assays for about $133/ea and had a cost of about $90. If they maintain the same pricing after diagnostic approval they are allowing the health care test facility to keep about $60 per test. This would become a nice profit center for a lot of practices and will drive increased test orders. I assume at some point BCART will raise prices to improve margins but until then it is a powerful incentive for POC adoption. Unfortunately, BCART sales staff cannot even point any of this out until they receive approval.

Similarly for EGFR Testing
As shown by the following excerpt from (Colling, R., Bancroft, H., Langman, G. et al. Fully automated real-time PCR for EGFR testing in non-small cell lung carcinoma. Virchows Arch 474, 187–192 (2019). doi.org/10.1007/s00428-018-2486-y), the EGFR assay has a significant price advantage over NGS testing.

"The Idylla™ EGFR Mutation Test costs around £170 per test (Europe-wide average) and is therefore comparable with most conventional EGFR PCR assays. In comparison, the cost of NGS gene panels is currently around £300. "

The EGFR assay is currently reimbursed U.S. $324.58 (The BCART price is about $220 per test). The specter of such a large mark up could really drive sales. Under this scenario, I think your 10% estimate could be light. Given the cost, ease of use and TAT advantages it seems like 25% market share would be realistic. It might grow to 50% if a cost competitive alternative does not hit the market for 5 or more years.

Until Diagnostic approvals, this is all guesswork. Once approved then real market data will emerge.

FL

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brightlight schreef op 3 maart 2020 22:48:

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FL
Indeed one of the major incentives for adopting Idylla or any other system will be cost saving (it always is). Thanks for putting numbers on the insurer reimbursements. It provides a clearer picture. Of course my 10% was just a random number. I too suspect it to be much higher. Now all that remains is to unlock the huge potential. Hopefully we will see the first signs in two days despite all the Corona madness.
BL

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Flatlander schreef op 4 maart 2020 14:42:

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I'm hopeful that Japan console sales began in the Q4 2019 and have continued into Q1 2020. This would help with providing a launching pad to meet 2020 expectations without a lot of sales rep face time. The virus in the US is hitting the Seattle area (mostly elderly) hard. For the rest of the country most of the affect is psychological. The news has shown video clips of a noticeably uncrowded Ohare airport suggesting that people are reducing travel. I still think 2020 is an inflection year, but the virus is likely another delay thrown into the mix.

I'm hopeful that the BCART SP is finally finding support. Unlike the Pharma stocks that are dependent on a pivotal trial approval, the cancer MDx market will likely play out over a long period (decade or more) as it did for CEPH in infectious disease. However, if BCART can establish a similar place in MDx by compounding sales and earning growth at 20 to 25% for a decade can make for a great long term investment.

FL

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Flatlander schreef op 4 maart 2020 14:11:

Verrelst has periodically indicated that he has no intention to sell. That said it is the duty of the CEO and the Board to bring any qualified offer for shareholder consideration. As fragmented as the share ownership is, I'd believe that no one will be in a hurry to sell out. Too many shares were bought in the $12 range for any quick agreement.

FL