Aandeel Novacyt PSE:ALNOV.FR, FR0010397232

quote:

Kompas schreef op 14 april 2021 19:02:

Hoewel de naam van de site anders doet vermoeden klinkt het mij verre van onzinnig wat onderstaand persoon schrijft volgend op de meest recente gebeurtenissen bij Novacyt.

"The Novacyt share price has crashed: here’s what I’d do now

Roland Head | Monday, 12th April, 2021 | More on: NCYT

Image source: Getty Images.

Shares in medical testing specialist Novacyt (LSE: NCTY) fell by 40% on Friday. Its share price crashed after the company said it had failed to agree a contract extension to supply Covid-19 tests for the NHS in 2021.

To make matters worse, the company’s now also in dispute with the NHS over sales during the final quarter of 2020.

Novacyt’s share price opened at around 430p on Monday morning. That values the business at just two times 2020 forecast earnings. That’s an unusually low valuation for a profitable business.
This former high flyer is now worth 15% less than it was a year ago.
Should I buy Novacyt for my portfolio today — or is this business a one-hit wonder that’s past its peak?

What we know

Sales to the NHS generated 50% of revenue during the first quarter of this year. But Novacyt has failed to secure a contract extension with this important customer. Management now says sales and profits are likely to be lower than expected this year.

And with Novacyt in a legal dispute with the NHS relating to those final quarter 2020 sales, I don’t know what the financial impact of this might be. But it’s probably not good news.

There’s a stock market saying that profit warnings often come in threes. Although that’s not always true, in my experience a company’s first profit warning is often followed by further bad news. If this happens, I think Novacyt’s share price could have further to fall.

What happens next?

It was always obvious that demand for Covid-19 testing would start to fall at some point. But the firm’s comments on Friday suggest to me that demand may already be slowing.

The main testing product Novacyt sells to the NHS is called PROmate. According to management, PROmate sales during the first quarter “may be sufficient” to satisfy NHS demand “for the remainder of 2021.”

The company hopes to continue selling PROmate to private sector clients and international markets. But if NHS demand is falling, then I’d guess demand elsewhere might fall too.

The company’s aim is to use its success during the pandemic to build a wider portfolio of testing and diagnostic products. So far, we haven’t heard much about this. But Novacyt ended last year with a cash balance of €101m, so it should have the funding it needs to develop new products and make acquisitions.

Novacyt share price: my decision

It’s worth remembering that until last year, Novacyt’s annual sales had peaked at €14m and the firm had never made a profit. Covid-19 testing proved to be a bonanza for the group, which secured valuable NHS contracts and generated sales of €312m in 2020.

Before last Friday, 2020 profits were expected to be €185m. With a market-cap of £345m and net cash of €101m, Novacyt shares look cheap to me on a historical view.

However, investment is about the future. And that looks pretty uncertain to me. In my view, buying the shares today means betting that CEO Graham Mullis can secure new business to replace Covid-19 testing.

I don’t know how likely this is. But my gut feeling is that it’ll be difficult to do quickly. I won’t be buying Novacyt shares just yet."

www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/12/t...

quote:

Kompas schreef op 14 april 2021 19:02:

Hoewel de naam van de site anders doet vermoeden klinkt het mij verre van onzinnig wat onderstaand persoon schrijft volgend op de meest recente gebeurtenissen bij Novacyt.
"The Novacyt share price has crashed: here’s what I’d do now
Roland Head | Monday, 12th April, 2021 | More on: NCYT
Image source: Getty Images.
Shares in medical testing specialist Novacyt (LSE: NCTY) fell by 40% on Friday. Its share price crashed after the company said it had failed to agree a contract extension to supply Covid-19 tests for the NHS in 2021.

To make matters worse, the company’s now also in dispute with the NHS over sales during the final quarter of 2020.

Novacyt’s share price opened at around 430p on Monday morning. That values the business at just two times 2020 forecast earnings. That’s an unusually low valuation for a profitable business.
This former high flyer is now worth 15% less than it was a year ago.
Should I buy Novacyt for my portfolio today — or is this business a one-hit wonder that’s past its peak?

What we know

Sales to the NHS generated 50% of revenue during the first quarter of this year. But Novacyt has failed to secure a contract extension with this important customer. Management now says sales and profits are likely to be lower than expected this year.

And with Novacyt in a legal dispute with the NHS relating to those final quarter 2020 sales, I don’t know what the financial impact of this might be. But it’s probably not good news.

There’s a stock market saying that profit warnings often come in threes. Although that’s not always true, in my experience a company’s first profit warning is often followed by further bad news. If this happens, I think Novacyt’s share price could have further to fall.

What happens next?

It was always obvious that demand for Covid-19 testing would start to fall at some point. But the firm’s comments on Friday suggest to me that demand may already be slowing.

The main testing product Novacyt sells to the NHS is called PROmate. According to management, PROmate sales during the first quarter “may be sufficient” to satisfy NHS demand “for the remainder of 2021.”

The company hopes to continue selling PROmate to private sector clients and international markets. But if NHS demand is falling, then I’d guess demand elsewhere might fall too.

The company’s aim is to use its success during the pandemic to build a wider portfolio of testing and diagnostic products. So far, we haven’t heard much about this. But Novacyt ended last year with a cash balance of €101m, so it should have the funding it needs to develop new products and make acquisitions.

Novacyt share price: my decision

It’s worth remembering that until last year, Novacyt’s annual sales had peaked at €14m and the firm had never made a profit. Covid-19 testing proved to be a bonanza for the group, which secured valuable NHS contracts and generated sales of €312m in 2020.

Before last Friday, 2020 profits were expected to be €185m. With a market-cap of £345m and net cash of €101m, Novacyt shares look cheap to me on a historical view.

However, investment is about the future. And that looks pretty uncertain to me. In my view, buying the shares today means betting that CEO Graham Mullis can secure new business to replace Covid-19 testing.

I don’t know how likely this is. But my gut feeling is that it’ll be difficult to do quickly. I won’t be buying Novacyt shares just yet."

www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/12/t...

quote:

Kompas schreef op 14 april 2021 19:02:

Hoewel de naam van de site anders doet vermoeden klinkt het mij verre van onzinnig wat onderstaand persoon schrijft volgend op de meest recente gebeurtenissen bij Novacyt.

"The Novacyt share price has crashed: here’s what I’d do now

Roland Head | Monday, 12th April, 2021 | More on: NCYT

Shares in medical testing specialist Novacyt (LSE: NCTY) fell by 40% on Friday. Its share price crashed after the company said it had failed to agree a contract extension to supply Covid-19 tests for the NHS in 2021.

To make matters worse, the company’s now also in dispute with the NHS over sales during the final quarter of 2020.

Novacyt’s share price opened at around 430p on Monday morning. That values the business at just two times 2020 forecast earnings. That’s an unusually low valuation for a profitable business.
This former high flyer is now worth 15% less than it was a year ago.
Should I buy Novacyt for my portfolio today — or is this business a one-hit wonder that’s past its peak?

What we know

Sales to the NHS generated 50% of revenue during the first quarter of this year. But Novacyt has failed to secure a contract extension with this important customer. Management now says sales and profits are likely to be lower than expected this year.

And with Novacyt in a legal dispute with the NHS relating to those final quarter 2020 sales, I don’t know what the financial impact of this might be. But it’s probably not good news.

There’s a stock market saying that profit warnings often come in threes. Although that’s not always true, in my experience a company’s first profit warning is often followed by further bad news. If this happens, I think Novacyt’s share price could have further to fall.

What happens next?

It was always obvious that demand for Covid-19 testing would start to fall at some point. But the firm’s comments on Friday suggest to me that demand may already be slowing.

The main testing product Novacyt sells to the NHS is called PROmate. According to management, PROmate sales during the first quarter “may be sufficient” to satisfy NHS demand “for the remainder of 2021.”

The company hopes to continue selling PROmate to private sector clients and international markets. But if NHS demand is falling, then I’d guess demand elsewhere might fall too.

The company’s aim is to use its success during the pandemic to build a wider portfolio of testing and diagnostic products. So far, we haven’t heard much about this. But Novacyt ended last year with a cash balance of €101m, so it should have the funding it needs to develop new products and make acquisitions.

Novacyt share price: my decision

It’s worth remembering that until last year, Novacyt’s annual sales had peaked at €14m and the firm had never made a profit. Covid-19 testing proved to be a bonanza for the group, which secured valuable NHS contracts and generated sales of €312m in 2020.

Before last Friday, 2020 profits were expected to be €185m. With a market-cap of £345m and net cash of €101m, Novacyt shares look cheap to me on a historical view.

However, investment is about the future. And that looks pretty uncertain to me. In my view, buying the shares today means betting that CEO Graham Mullis can secure new business to replace Covid-19 testing.

I don’t know how likely this is. But my gut feeling is that it’ll be difficult to do quickly. I won’t be buying Novacyt shares just yet."

www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/12/t...

quote:

Louis7 schreef op 14 april 2021 18:38:

[...]
Waarom komt Novacyt niet met een update op hun eigen site (https://novacyt.com/news-and-events/) wat betreft de lancering van dit product? Of krijgen we dit morgenvroeg te horen?

quote:

Louis7 schreef op 14 april 2021 19:30:

[...]
Er zit een fout in dit bericht! NHS moet zijn 'Department of Health and Social Care' (DHSC)

quote:

Opstapelen schreef op 14 april 2021 23:00:

[...]
Dat er wel het één en ander onduidelijk is absoluut een feit,
Vwb PROmate, daar slaat hij de plank volledig mis
DHSC stapt af van pcr en wil dat door de private sector laten doen en verder met sneltesten.
Dat houdt in dat je ook minder promate nodig gaat hebben bij de afbouw van pcr.
Dat zegt niets over de vraag in de private sfeer..

Of gm snel genoeg kan schakelen van overheid naar andere markten moeten we afwachten.
We weten dat ze in ieder geval ruim 40m hebben afgezet in q1 buiten de Britse overheid .

quote:

kw1986 schreef op 15 april 2021 07:21:

www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/nova...

Negatief bericht van deze website

quote:

kw1986 schreef op 14 april 2021 18:25:

[...]

Antibody. Dus niet de soort die momenteel de markt overneemt. Waar zien jullie die testen gebruikt worden?

quote:

platteey schreef op 15 april 2021 08:16:

Iemand zicht op opening ?

quote:

Egomarinus schreef op 15 april 2021 08:31:

Hans, verwacht jij voor juli een RNS van Nova om te zeggen dat ze uit hun discussie zijn met de DHSC met het resultaat ervan?
Of is dat te ver gedroomd?

quote:

trab33 schreef op 15 april 2021 08:06:

Tot vervelens toe heb ik dit hier neergepend omdat ik er rotsvast van overtuigd was . Iedereen zou met novacyt veel minder verloren hebben maar zou ondertussen al flink op winst gestaan hebben met Eurobio . Na al die tegenwind die ik hier kreeg moet ik zeggen dat het al een heel stuk getemperd is maar hoop ik oprecht dat er toch wat mensen gevolgd zijn .
Fred , je zou er maar 1 van kunnen zijn

quote:

trab33 schreef op 15 april 2021 08:06:

jullie weten dat ik hardnekkig kan zijn als ik in iets geloof , maar vanaf 11 euro had ik iedereen toch ten zeerste aangeraden om novacyt te verkopen en haf er ook een reden bij waarom .
Mooiste was dan nog dat ik met alternatieven kwam ,namelijk Eurobio en ook met een heel goede reden waarom .
Tot vervelens toe heb ik dit hier neergepend omdat ik er rotsvast van overtuigd was . Iedereen zou met novacyt veel minder verloren hebben maar zou ondertussen al flink op winst gestaan hebben met Eurobio . Na al die tegenwind die ik hier kreeg moet ik zeggen dat het al een heel stuk getemperd is maar hoop ik oprecht dat er toch wat mensen gevolgd zijn .
Fred , je zou er maar 1 van kunnen zijn