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Home  /   Forum   /   Goud   /   2014 het jaar van de goudaandelen

Gold World Spot (USD) IND:XAUUSD.FXVWD, XC0009655157

Laatste koers Verschil Volume
2.653,16   +4,80   (+0,18%) Dagrange 2.643,59 - 2.664,48 0  

2014 het jaar van de goudaandelen

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285 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 ... 15 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  2. B_B 7 april 2014 11:45
    Gold Staying Above $1,300, But Bearish Headwinds Building
    By Market Pulse (Mingze Wu)
    Apr 07, 2014 04:50AM GMT
    .....
    It seems that hedge funds and institutional speculators are starting to unwind their long Gold positions, according to the latest COT report. The exact reasons why they are doing this are unknown, but we can venture a guess: It seems reasonable to believe that these speculators were going long on Gold expecting the sell-off scenario mentioned earlier. Unfortunately for them, it seems that a sell-off in stocks isn't forthcoming. Therefore, it is not surprising to see these professional traders cutting their losses early.
    .....
    www.investing.com/analysis/gold-stayi...,300,-but-bearish-headwinds-building-208740

    Ze verwachten geen crash meer op de beurzen, maar ik wel.
  4. [verwijderd] 7 april 2014 13:11
    Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
    Newsletter provider, Elliott Wave, gold & precious metals, Emini S&P 500

    Can Gold Drop Below $1000?
    Apr. 6, 2014 1:52 AM ET | 74 comments | Includes: AGOL, DGL, DGLD, DGP, DGZ, DZZ, GEUR, GGBP, GLD, GLDE, GL

    Disclosure: I am long SLV. (More...)

    Summary

    Can gold "fundamentally" drop below $1000?
    Various sentiment gauges.
    Upcoming week's expectations.

    All I have been hearing of late is how gold will never see lower than the 2013 lows. People say it is simply not possible since it would be lower than its production cost. And, my answer to them is "so what?" Yes . . . so what? Are you going to tell me that producers will not stop mining gold? And, again, if so, so what? Won't that then make gold more scarce since less of it will be available, as mining will significantly slow, and then maybe we see a long term bottom?

    But, people have it in their mind that the metals simply can't go below a certain price and they think I am simply crazy for thinking that they can. Well, I was called crazy when I called for a top in gold in the $1,915 region back in 2011 when everyone was so sure it was going over $2000; I was called crazy when I said silver was going to "crash" from the $45 region and target the $26 region; and I was called crazy for thinking that silver can drop to $22, or lower. So, I am used to being called crazy by now. And, maybe you may consider me crazy for thinking that it is possible to see gold below $1,000, but I am telling you that it is clearly within the realm of probability.

    Yet, when people look at the recent Commitment of Traders reports, they see evidence that the commercial traders have covered their shorts, so everyone who reads these reports is very bullish once again. But, may I remind you that these reports are very delayed, and even though they may have covered their shorts a week ago (when we were expecting a rally), they may well have re-positioned on the short side once again by Friday afternoon. Yet, we will not know if this is what occurred until the middle of next week, at which time the next decline phase may have begun. My suspicion is that the commercial traders did indeed add to their short positions as of Friday.

    And, as I peruse all the Seeking Alpha articles on metals, it seems almost everyone is bullish again. In fact, one article even notes that price targets on gold miners are being raised by most analysts, despite the current price drop. Very few even believe that there is a bearish scenario to consider. Most everyone seems to be only looking up.

    Personally, I am always looking at where and how I can be wrong in my expectations. In fact, I will even note specific levels that, if the market should move through, would have me consider that I am wrong in my primary expectations. Yet, most do not provide such objective perspectives in the metals, and will simply maintain a position, no matter how wrong it turns out to be. In fact, many people have been holding silver after a 60% decline, still claiming that they are right for doing so. That is not an objective perspective upon which any of you should rely.

    One of my members at Elliottwavetrader.net also sent me a note that when we were at the highs in GLD the other week, the options group on CNBC were suggesting long trades in GLD. It seems that they potentially fueled the bullish fires right at the highs, and added to the extreme bullish sentiment. And, when we were selling our longs and shorting GLD, it seems we were selling to them, as they became quite bullish at those highs.

    Another popular perspective that has most likely been revisited, and will likely be addressed in upcoming articles on the internet is the "safe haven" perspective of gold. And, with the rise this week as the equity markets went down, I am sure more will be blindly jumping on this bandwagon. But, as I have addressed in many articles in the past, there is no historical evidence for gold being a safe haven against equity market declines. There have been times it has gone up and there have been times it has gone down during equity market declines. So, please make sure you actually know the history of gold's movement vis-à-vis equity market declines before you accept this perspective as gospel.

    Furthermore, did we not expect a rally in the metals whether or not the equity markets declined? And, are we not expecting a strong move down in the metals (as long as GLD remains below 131.50), whether or not the equity markets go up or down? So, as I have cautioned all traders whom I teach, please make sure you are focused upon the chart in front of you, as that is the only one that really matters when you are putting your money to work regarding that particular investment or trade. Remember, supposed "correlations" disappear just as quickly as they appear, which ultimately means that a correlation really never existed in the first place. As an example of how one can be hurt in relying upon widely accepted "correlations," take note of how the dollar and gold rallied this past week in tandem, yet, is not gold supposed to drop on the dollars' rally?

    So, while it seems that there is appropriate bullish sentiment in the metals marketplace, I am still not yet convinced it is quite bullish enough. I still think there is still a little more upside to be seen in the metals early this coming week before the metals can begin their larger degree downside drop. But, that upside room may be quite limited.

    Last week, I noted that as long as we hold the 123 region in GLD, we should expect a rally. The low for GLD this past week was 123.10 before GLD began the rally we saw towards the end of the week. However, the rally has been quite weak. Initially I had expected we would be able to move up towards the 129 region on this corrective rally. Yet, the market does not seem strong enough right now to move quite that high. And, as my technical indicators have turned up enough to support a strong decline, I have now become very cautious about the long side in the metals.

    In the upcoming week, I think we will likely be developing a topping pattern of some sort. If it is the conclusion of this corrective rally, or just the first leg of 2 movements up in this corrective rally is yet to be determined. But, as long as 131.50 is maintained as resistance in the GLD, I am focusing on an impending large downside move. The support level to watch is 123-123.60 region. A break down below that region, which is seen on very high and strong selling volume means we have begun the bigger decline, with the next target being the 2013 lows, on our way to lower lows in the metals arena.

    Additional disclosure: I own intermediate term puts on SLV and GLD, with some remaining short term calls on SLV which will likely be sold Monday or Tuesday.
  5. B_B 7 april 2014 18:29
    quote:

    B_B schreef op 7 april 2014 11:00:

    Chinese beurs gesloten vandaag.
    Geen Chinese steun voor de goudprijs.
    Een daling op de Nasdaq zorgt voor een positieve goudprijs vanmiddag.

    AEX richting de 350 punten deze maand.
    -50 punten op de Nasdaq is niet voldoende, bij -135 punten dan begint iedereen te zweten.
  7. B_B 9 april 2014 11:04
    Demand for Gold from Events in Ukraine and India

    The demand for gold has flared up as Russia has moved into a new phase in the conflict with Ukraine – pro-Russian separatists occupied government buildings in Eastern Ukraine while demanded a referendum on federalization. Putin is also banning agricultural goods from Ukraine, pushing up the natural gas price by a phenomenal 80%, and stepping up military pressure.
    In India, the BJP’s Narendra Modi, who is strongly supported by India’s jewellery and bullion associations, will likely win the election, making the reduction of import duty on gold more likely. He is widely believed to be able to push industrial reforms and more foreign direct investment into India, which bodes well for Indian wealth and therefore the demand for gold.

    news.sharpspixley.com/article/u-s-dat...
  9. B_B 9 april 2014 20:33
    bennie, op 09 april 2014 om 15:37 uur
    Gisteren hebben ze de Amerikaanse beurzen gesteund en vandaag de futures.

    "De tegenpartij" is gisteren begonnen met een aanval op de Dollar.
    Een verdere daling van de Dollar Index en USD/JPY brengt de Yen Carry Trade in gevaar. Yen Carry Trade unwinding is negatief voor de beurzen.

    www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-in...

    www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy

    Nothing else matters!
  11. B_B 9 april 2014 23:59
    quote:

    DeZwarteRidder schreef op 9 april 2014 11:52:

    Wel vreemd eigenlijk dat China zoveel mogelijk goud wil kopen en dat India zoveel mogelijk wil tegenhouden dat de inwoners goud kopen.
    “China is the world’s biggest producer of gold. Not only do they consume all the gold that is mined in the country but are also a net importer. 2013 was a record level – we’re talking several million ounces, to the extent where we’re looking at about 35m ounces in terms of the net gold import", he said.
    Mr Arnold said that by owning gold, China diversified its reserves and so is less dependent on US treasuries.
    "The US dollar over the past decade or so has been in a period of structural decline so when the public sector invests their holdings, they don’t want to hold it all in US treasuries, which are necessarily dollar based", he said.
    China is one of the biggest holders of US treasuries in the world.
    "China have got a large foreign exchange reserve with over £3.5trn invested around the world and so necessarily a large part of that goes into US treasuries", said Mr Arnold.
    Owning a lot of gold to diversify investments means China is not beholden to the political decisions or monetary policy decisions from the United States, he said.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commoditi...

    Finance Minister P Chidmabaram on Monday indicated that government may further ease restrictions on gold imports after monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on April 1, as the current account deficit has moderated to about $35 billion.
    .....
    In order to restrict current account deficit, the government took measures to curb gold import. The government raised import duty on the precious metal three times taking it to 10 per cent and also made it mandatory to export 20 per cent of the total gold imported.

    profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-...
  12. [verwijderd] 10 april 2014 14:46
    quote:

    NorthCraft schreef op 9 april 2014 22:19:

    interessant forum dit maar wat ik niet snap is dat jullie elkaar met lange citaten en links om de oren slaan waaruit niet jullie eigen mening spreekt en de bedoeling überhaupt vaag is: weet je dan zelf wat je eigenlijk aangeeft of gaat het daar niet om?
    Goeie vraag!
    Zonder zelf te beweren dat ikzelf alwetend ben op dit vlak, gaat het erom - althans wat mij betreft - elkaar te informeren over meningen van diegenen die er wel toe doen of die hun sporen reeds verdiend hebben. Ongefundeerd iets naar elkaar roeptoeteren lijkt mij in ieder geval zinloos.
    En, om nu mijn eigen beleggingen in goud en zilver hier weer te geven, als aanbeveling om bijv. de koers van mijn aandeeltjes omhoog te jagen? Gaat ook niet werken.
    Aan de andere kant, een goed onderbouwde mening van een forumbezoeker is altijd welkom, lijkt me. Degenen die echt iets te vertellen hebben komen vanzelf boven drijven ...
  13. [verwijderd] 10 april 2014 14:54
    quote:

    vastwelgoed schreef op 10 april 2014 14:46:

    [...]

    Goeie vraag!
    Zonder zelf te beweren dat ikzelf alwetend ben op dit vlak, gaat het erom - althans wat mij betreft - elkaar te informeren over meningen van diegenen die er wel toe doen of die hun sporen reeds verdiend hebben. Ongefundeerd iets naar elkaar roeptoeteren lijkt mij in ieder geval zinloos.
    En, om nu mijn eigen beleggingen in goud en zilver hier weer te geven, als aanbeveling om bijv. de koers van mijn aandeeltjes omhoog te jagen? Gaat ook niet werken.
    Aan de andere kant, een goed onderbouwde mening van een forumbezoeker is altijd welkom, lijkt me. Degenen die echt iets te vertellen hebben komen vanzelf boven drijven ...
    Trouwens, voor degenen die het nog niet weten, vanavond om 20:00 uur geeft Willem Middelkoop een online seminar over goud, dollar, etc. Inschrijven kan via RTL Z.
  18. B_B 11 april 2014 10:15
    quote:

    GG123 schreef op 11 april 2014 09:15:

    Iemand een idee waarom goud nu blijft liggen?
    Ze proberen de Dollar te steunen.
    Daling goud is positief voor de Dollar en geeft tevens een indruk dat er nog geen paniek is op de beurs.
    Goud manipulatie is makkelijker dan Dollar manipulatie (vanwege het grote volume).

    Nasdaq daalde gisteren ruim 3% en vandaag staat de Nasdaq future +0,1%.
    Ik verwacht geen herstel vandaag. De Europese beurzen zullen vanmiddag verder dalen (AEX -2%).
  19. [verwijderd] 11 april 2014 12:10
    quote:

    B_B schreef op 11 april 2014 10:15:

    [...]

    Ze proberen de Dollar te steunen.
    Daling goud is positief voor de Dollar en geeft tevens een indruk dat er nog geen paniek is op de beurs.
    Goud manipulatie is makkelijker dan Dollar manipulatie (vanwege het grote volume).

    Nasdaq daalde gisteren ruim 3% en vandaag staat de Nasdaq future +0,1%.
    Ik verwacht geen herstel vandaag. De Europese beurzen zullen vanmiddag verder dalen (AEX -2%).
    Thanks. Had wel een stijginkje van goud verwacht.
    Ik denk niet dat de -2% gehaald wordt. De steun houdt hem nog redelijk. Als Dow stabiel opent zal AEX iets herstellen denk ik.
  20. B_B 11 april 2014 12:11
    Goud reageert nu zoals het hoort (angst = stijging goud).

    1e kwartaal cijfers:
    13:30 uur - Wells Fargo
    14:30 uur - JPMorgan

    Negatieve cijfers van deze bedrijven zullen de daling van de beurzen versterken.
    Positieve cijfers zullen de beurzen alleen een paar minuten steunen (om vervolgens weer verder te dalen).
    Een win-win situatie voor goud.
285 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 ... 15 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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