Ontvang nu dagelijks onze kooptips!

word abonnee
IEX 25 jaar desktop iconMarkt Monitor

Koffiekamer« Terug naar discussie overzicht

KK AEX DD 12/11 : Van A naar Beter..?

579 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 ... 29 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 7 bezinteergebelegt 12 oktober 2011 17:29
    quote:

    RALLY schreef op 12 oktober 2011 17:26:

    [...]

    omdat winst = winst nog steeds geldt...ik ben wel zeker van mijn zaak...maar als je te lang blifjft zitten zie je ook wel eens je winst verdampen, vraag maar aan ERWINN
    daar heb je gelijk in hoor, ben vanmorgen ook uitgestapt met mijn longs, heb dus bijna 4 punten laten liggen but who cares, nu met de helft van de winst weer long gegaan met een keiharde SL op 296 maar verwacht, nu de markt zoveel kracht toont, dat dit ritje direct doorloopt naar 310/315.
  2. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:40
    quote:

    kick schreef op 12 oktober 2011 17:38:

    Ga is werken RALLY. Hele dagen zit je maar te roep toeteren over dat het gaat stijgen en andersdenkenden ram je de grond in. Gelukkig heb je gelijk maar een markt als deze laat zich niet voorspellen. Maar de markt heeft wel altijd gelijk!
    ik geef slechts wat tegengas aan het geroeptoeter dat we gaan crashen en ik werk keihard ...
  3. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:48
    Voor het eerst sinds lange tijd heb ik weer eens turbo's over de AEX aangeschaft. Normaal blijf ik bij goud en zilver, maar die tonen nu weinig kracht dus ben ik eens buiten de pot aan het piesen.

    Na vele dagen van enorme stijgingen verwacht ik morgen en duw terug naar 280. Ik heb dan ook een minuut voor sluiting AEX turbo's SHORT aangeschaft!

    Ben ik de enige shorter hier?

    Gr, TC
  4. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:48
    hier wat leesvoer voor de doom-denkers:

    The Next Market Crash
    Like everybody, I have no idea when the next market crash will occur, but I do happen to hold the view that a market crash is on the way. In fact, my view is that the entire future from here onward will be marked by sharp plunges (both crashes and regular market declines), followed by periods of stability, if not apparent recovery.

    What I track instead are imbalances and risks. Sort of like being a fire marshal who takes note of an outlet with fifteen things plugged into it, some with frayed cords, located near a pile of old cleaning rags. I can't tell you for sure that a fire will result, only that the odds are elevated. A prudent person will take steps to remedy the situation or at least prepare for the possibility of a fire.

    Here's one view of the possible trigger for the next meltdown from Dr. Robert Shapiro, advisor to Presidents Clinton and Obama, and now the IMF, as offered on BBC Newsnight on October 5, 2011:

    "If they cannot address this [the sovereign debt crisis in Europe] in a credible way, I believe within perhaps two to three weeks, we will have a meltdown in sovereign debt which will produce a meltdown across the European banking system.

    We're not just talking about a relatively small Belgian bank, we're talking about the largest banks in the world. The largest banks in Germany, the largest banks in France that will spread to the UK in part through the sovereign debt problems in Ireland.

    It will spread everywhere because the global financial system is so interconnected, all those banks are counterparties to every significant bank in the US and in Britain, and in Japan and around the world. This would be a crisis, in my view, more serious than the crisis in 2008."

    (Source)

    What he's warning about here are two main things. The first is the risk of contagion, where problems in one area spread to another because everything is so intertwine. The second is that you can count on the rot spreading from the weaker periphery to the stronger core. Crisis always progresses from the outside in.

    That dynamic has been playing out for months, and it should be obvious to the most casual of observers that the Greece situation has not been improved one iota by any of the steps yet taken.

    The stakes could not be higher. Normally staid politicians are letting their guard down and saying previously unthinkable things. For example, this shocker recently came from the Polish finance minister:
  5. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:50
    vervolg:

    Poland warns of war 'in 10 years' as EU leaders scramble to contain panic
    Oct 14, 2011

    Speaking to MEPs in Strasbourg on Wednesday morning (14 Sept) [the Polish finance minister] warned of the need to act rapidly to prevent grave danger for the EU. Making reference to a recent report entitled 'Euro Break Up - The Consequences' by Swiss financial giant UBS, he declared: "There is no doubt we are in danger. Europe is in danger".

    The paper by UBS, normally known for its highly sober analysis, warned that historically, monetary unions do not break up without civil war or some other form of authoritarian reaction. "The risk of civil disorder questions the rule of law, and as such basic issues such as property rights. Even those countries that avoid internal strife and divisions will likely have to use administrative controls to avoid extreme positions in their markets", it said.

    The Polish minister went on to warn of a doubling of unemployment within two years "even in the rich countries".

    He concluded his comments by recollecting a recent conversation he had with an old friend who is now head of a major bank: "We were talking about the crisis in eurozone. He told me 'You know, after all these political shocks, economic shocks, it is very rare indeed that in the next 10 years we could avoid a war'. A war ladies and gentlemen. I am really thinking about obtaining a green card for my kids in the United States".

    (Source)

    I'm not sure whether the US will be a much better place to ride out the storm if the European banking system collapses, as it will be only a matter of time before the US is exposed as being just as financially and fiscally ruined as the EU.

    Supporting this view is a rather famous Harvard economist (and the probable successor for Bernanke's current position, according to some rumors):

    Martin Feldstein says there's a "nontrivial" chance the U.S. economy will turn down again and calls the recovery "about as bad an expansion as I've ever seen."

    Another downturn here will further expose the fact that there are still towers of tottering debt that can only be serviced by an expansion, and a robust one at that. With this next revelation of systemic weakness, expect more debt defaults, institutional failures, and the same sort of banking weakness seen in Europe to occur in the US.

    In short, there's every chance here that an even worse repeat of 2008 could happen at any time. And in my estimation, the chance that this will come in the form of a market crash is too high to ignore.

    Right now, with the rot creeping from the outside in, I see those chances as not only high, but rising.
  6. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:50
    quote:

    Zilversmid. schreef op 12 oktober 2011 17:48:

    Voor het eerst sinds lange tijd heb ik weer eens turbo's over de AEX aangeschaft. Normaal blijf ik bij goud en zilver, maar die tonen nu weinig kracht dus ben ik eens buiten de pot aan het piesen.

    Na vele dagen van enorme stijgingen verwacht ik morgen en duw terug naar 280. Ik heb dan ook een minuut voor sluiting AEX turbo's SHORT aangeschaft!

    Ben ik de enige shorter hier?

    Gr, TC

    Nope, hier nog een, maar mijn "turbos" hebben een SL van 499, dus meer voor de wat langere termijn.. ;)
  7. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:51
    quote:

    Zilversmid. schreef op 12 oktober 2011 17:48:

    Voor het eerst sinds lange tijd heb ik weer eens turbo's over de AEX aangeschaft. Normaal blijf ik bij goud en zilver, maar die tonen nu weinig kracht dus ben ik eens buiten de pot aan het piesen.

    Na vele dagen van enorme stijgingen verwacht ik morgen en duw terug naar 280. Ik heb dan ook een minuut voor sluiting AEX turbo's SHORT aangeschaft!

    Ben ik de enige shorter hier?

    Gr, TC

    nee, ik ken er minimaal nog3 : erwinn, ketelbinkie en nog een volger!
  8. forum rang 7 bezinteergebelegt 12 oktober 2011 17:51
    Volgende target voor de essies is de 1220, mocht het ze lukken om daar boven te blijven dan begint het pas !!!,een zee van ruimte tot aan 1360 !!! Zou alleen nu wel graag een geslaagde test willen zien van de zone 1200 tot 1205, liefst vandaag nog. En nog een keer, houden de yanks deze winst goed beet dan is het hier echt 310 voordat je "hoe kan dat nu" kunt zeggen. Eenmaal een weerstand definitief gebroken sta je nl zomaar 10 tot 15 punten hoger, vorige week donderdag door de 284 en vandaag 300, need i say more ????? vandaag door weerstand 296, morgen en vrijdag daarboven is volgende week dinsdag oid 310. Zo, en nu bier

    gr

    B.E.G.B
  9. [verwijderd] 12 oktober 2011 17:54
    en het gaat nog verder:

    From the Outside In
    It can be very difficult to envision what an 'outside in' crisis looks and feels like. In order to get a better feel for the dynamic, we turn to Phoenix, Arizona for an excellent case study.

    Once the darling of the housing boom, with endless desert building lots enabling the most egregious sort of bubble sprawl, Phoenix is now in the grips of a horrific housing crash. Like all big adjustments, it appears to those experiencing it to be in slow motion:

    Phoenix-area real estate collapse echoed troubles
    Oct 9, 2011

    A look at metro Phoenix's foreclosure crisis over the past five years shows an economic crash moving through time and space.

    The collapse started in new-housing areas on the fringes and then swept inward, hitting more established areas as the unemployment rate climbed. Now, as the stock market struggles and speculation swirls about another recession, foreclosures are flaring in the Valley's luxury-home neighborhoods.

    (Source)

    That's a perfect illustration of the 'outside in' dynamic. At the beginning of the bubble's burst, it was almost certainly unthinkable to the inhabitants of the wealthier neighborhoods that they would get swept up in the cataclysm. But they did -- first the weaker and more distant locales, then the middle-strength ones, and then the core.

    The article continues:

    A new Arizona Republic analysis, which maps out every home in default in the region over the past five years, is the first comprehensive look at the wave of foreclosures that has swept the Valley since the market began its steep decline in 2007.

    The analysis, based on data from Phoenix foreclosure-information service AZ Bidder, plots individual foreclosures and overall trends by year.

    It shows how the Valley's foreclosure crisis was more than one crisis. Foreclosures arose in waves, driven first by problematic mortgages, then by the job woes of the recession and now by lingering economic effects being felt in expensive neighborhoods.

    (Source)

    It wasn't just caused by housing weakness alone, but the way that housing weakness led to job weakness, and how they ended up preying together on confidence in the bubble and ultimately dragging down the local economy.

    One more perfect passage from that article that illustrates our point:

    As Phoenix's foreclosure crisis crept inward from the fringes during late 2008, it was being driven not just by subprime lending but also by the economy at large.

    The state and the nation had fallen into a recession. Hundreds of thousands of jobs, many in the construction industry, were lost in Arizona.
579 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 ... 29 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Word nu gratis lid of log in met je emailadres en wachtwoord.