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  1. [verwijderd] 4 november 2007 16:15
    China Plan to Buy Hong Kong Stocks May Be Delayed, Wen Signals

    By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Winnie Zhu

    Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Premier Wen Jiabao's comments on a plan to allow Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong stocks may signal a delay in its implementation, analysts said.

    The government needs to study the risks, increase knowledge among Chinese investors and prepare regulations to protect the stock markets in Hong Kong and at home before launching the program, Wen said yesterday during a trip to Uzbekistan.

    China's currency regulator on Aug. 20 said Chinese investors in the northern Tianjin city's Binhai economic zone will be allowed to invest in Hong Kong stocks with a Bank of China Ltd. account. Since then, the benchmark Hang Seng Index has surged more than 40 percent.

    ``The government has encountered difficulties to launch the plan and it will take some time,'' said Wu Kan, an analyst at Shanghai Securities Consulting Co., today in a telephone interview.

    Liu Fuhua, a spokesman for China Securities Regulatory Commission, declined to comment today when contacted by Bloomberg News on the telephone.

    ``We don't expect a dramatic impact on Hong Kong stocks, as the market already anticipated a delay in the launch of the `through-train' program,'' said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, today in a telephone interview.

    Inflows Versus Outlflows

    China is easing curbs on capital outflows as it battles with surging inflows that lead to higher inflation, soaring stock and property prices and excessive factory investments.

    The current-account surplus, a gap for trade in goods and services, widened 78 percent in the first six months of 2007 from a year earlier to $163 billion. The capital and financial account, a measure of investment flows, almost tripled to $90 billion.

    The State Administration of Foreign Exchange last month pledged that it will relax limits on capital outflows.

    ``It's a matter of time,'' said Liao Qun, chief economist at Citic Ka Wah Bank in Hong Kong, today in a telephone interview. ``The `through-train' will come, but the Chinese government is cautious and therefore it needs an extra few months for preparation.''

    China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, expanded 11.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. Fixed-asset investment in urban areas climbed 26.4 percent in the first nine months, up from the 24.5 percent pace in the whole of 2006.

    Even as inflation slowed to 6.2 percent in September from a peak of almost 11 years on smaller food price gains, it still exceeds the key one-year bank deposit rate of 3.87 percent. That encourages households to switch savings into stocks and real estate.

    The benchmark CSI 300 Index of shares has soared 168 percent this year. Property prices in China's 70 major cities jumped 8.9 percent in September from a year earlier, the biggest since records began in August 2005.

    To cool the world's fastest-growing major economy, the People's Bank of China has raised interest rates five times, ordered lenders to set aside bigger reserves and sold bills to drain cash from the financial system.

    ``We agreed with Premier Wen that the `through-train' should be launched at the right timing,'' H.F. Wong, a spokesman for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said today.
  2. [verwijderd] 5 november 2007 11:57
    Zoals verwacht reageert de markt redelijk hevig vandaag.

    Hong Kong Stocks Drop Most Since 9/11: World's Biggest Mover

    By Hanny Wan
    Enlarge Image/Details

    Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged the most since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on concern China will delay the ``through train,'' a plan for mainland Chinese individual investors to buy the city's equities directly. China Mobile Ltd. and China Unicom Ltd. led the decline.

    ``I think the `through train' is hitting the rocks, possibly permanently,'' said Aaron Boesky, who manages $200 million as chief executive officer at Marco Polo Investments Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``I expect a significant correction in the Hong Kong market over the next few weeks.''

    The Hang Seng Index plunged 1,526.02, or 5 percent, to close at 28,942.32, its steepest decline since September 2001 and the largest fluctuation among markets included in global benchmarks. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 43 so-called H shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, lost 6.4 percent to 18,291.20.

    PetroChina Co., the best-performing member of the H-share index in the past month, dropped the most in almost seven years as investors took advantage of recent gains to sell. The Shanghai-listed shares of China's biggest oil producer almost tripled on their trading debut today.

    China Mobile, the world's largest mobile-phone operator by users, dropped HK$10.60, or 7 percent, to HK$141.60, its biggest decline since January 2002. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation's biggest oil refiner, plunged HK$1.26, or 10 percent, to HK$11.04, the biggest drop since its debut in October 2000.

    China Unicom Ltd., the smaller of the nation's two mobile- phone companies, slipped HK$1.46, or 8.3 percent, to HK$16.12. Cosco Pacific Ltd., Asia's third-largest container-terminal operator, fell HK$1.85, or 8 percent, to HK$21.15.

    On Hold

    The government needs to study the risks, increase knowledge among Chinese investors and prepare regulations to protect the stock markets in Hong Kong and at home before allowing individual investors to buy Hong Kong shares, China's Premier Wen Jiabao said on Nov. 3.

    China's currency regulator on Aug. 20 said individuals holding accounts at Bank of China Ltd.'s branch in Tianjin city's Binhai economic zone will be allowed to invest foreign currency in Hong Kong stocks for the first time. No timing was given on the plan.

    The H-share index surged 66 percent and the Hang Seng Index soared 42 percent since the start of trading on Aug. 20. The measures are the best performers in that time among 90 global benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg.

    ``Sentiment-wise, the market does react to Wen's comments,'' said Samantha Ho, a Hong Kong-based fund manager who oversees about $5 billion of Hong Kong and China equities at Invesco Asia Ltd., adding that investors had expected some delay in the program. ``In the short term there probably won't be much good news. A correction after the recent rally wouldn't be a bad thing.''

    World's Biggest Company

    PetroChina, which passed Exxon Mobil Corp. as the world's largest company by market value, dropped HK$1.60, or 8.2 percent, to HK$18, its biggest decline since November 2000. The stock is still up 23 percent from a month ago and its 14-day relative strength index, a moving average based on whether the shares rose or fell, ended Nov. 2 at 71. A reading of 70 or higher signals to some analysts that shares are headed for a fall.

    PetroChina soared 163 percent to 43.96 yuan on its Shanghai debut after raising 66.8 billion yuan ($9 billion) in the biggest share sale this year to expand refining capacity by more than half and raise oil production. Investors applied for almost 50 times the amount of stock offered by the company.

    All but two stocks on the 40-member Hang Seng Index declined. November futures lost 5.5 percent to 28,776.

    The following stocks rose, fell or were suspended. Stock symbols are in brackets after company names.

    China Eastern Airlines Corp. (670 HK), the country's third- largest carrier, halted trading in its shares pending the completion of Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Temasek Holdings Pte.'s purchase of a stake in the carrier. The airline didn't say how long the suspension was likely to last.

    China Shenhua Energy Co. (1088 HK), China's largest coal producer, fell HK$2.35, or 4.9 percent, to HK$45.75. Mitsubishi Corp. acquired 0.2 percent of the Chinese energy company to expand in the commodities business in China, Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported, without saying where it got the information.

    Hutchison Telecommunications International Ltd. (2332 HK) rose 12 cents, or 1.1 percent, to HK$11.48. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. (13 HK), billionaire Li Ka-shing's largest company, said it has no plans to buy out minority shareholders in unit Hutchison Telecom. Hutchison Whampoa fell HK$3.60, or 4 percent, to HK$86.95.

    Shougang Concord International Enterprises Co. (697 HK) fell 22 cents, or 5.2 percent, to HK$4.04. The Chinese steelmaker and real-estate developer may buy a stake in Australasian Resources Ltd.'s $2.1 billion iron ore project, the South China Morning Post reported, citing the company's Deputy Managing Director Chen Zhouping.
  3. [verwijderd] 5 november 2007 16:19
    quote:

    m1155 schreef:

    Bijkopen of wachten ?
    Het koersverloop doet ontzettend veel denken aan het koersverloop van ICT in 2000. De Nasdag dook in maart 2000 ook eens ruim 12% omlaag om dezelfde dag nog op te veren tot een verlies van 2,5%. In China daalden de koersen in februari ook zo'n 10% in een dag tijd. In 2000 deed de Nasdaq het tot augustus 2000 nog redelijk goed om daarna aan een daling te beginnen.

    Maar misschien berust elke gelijkenis op zuiver toeval.
  4. [verwijderd] 9 november 2007 09:01
    quote:

    m1155 schreef:

    Benieuwd wat de HangSeng gaat doen morgen/vannacht.

    Heb vandaag wat stukjes aangekocht. Ze stonden me wild zwaaiend en spingend aan te moedigen "koop ons, koop ons" en kon ze niet laten liggen..
    Nu weet je het: kleine plusjes.
    Dat is beter dan het chinarood.
    Nu nog gunstige cijfertjes voor ICW
    Groeten Oldman
  5. [verwijderd] 9 november 2007 21:50
    How China is eating the world

    China's remarkable economic growth is powering the global economy, but can the world afford to keep on supplying its ever-growing demands for food and raw materials?

    By Sean O'Grady
    Published: 09 November 2007

    Economists are notorious for being unable to reach an easy consensus on many issues, but talk to any of them about the outlook for the global economy and before long the word "China" always starts to dominate the conversation. And it is true that the robustness of Chinese economic growth – around 10 per cent forecast for 2008, barely changed on recent trends – is picking up the pace being lost by faltering Western economies. Trouble is, they're also eating the world – literally, in the case of food supplies.

    According to the IMF, about half of the world's economic growth this year will be accounted for by Brazil, Russia, India and China – the BRICs. India, staggeringly, is contributing more growth to the world economy than the United States, but China is by far the most powerful engine of growth – more so than the US, the eurozone and Japan combined. So, "China saves the world" – or at least helps to maintain global economic growth around the 5 per cent mark. Were it not for China and these other emerging economies, the world might well be staring a recession in the face.

    Yet this phenomenon is not an unalloyed economic good. As yesterday's news about Rio Tinto and BHP demonstrates, the commodities price boom has led to huge valuations for companies in this field; great for their shareholders, but another signal that the insatiable Chinese demand for oil, copper, zinc, nickel and all the other raw materials of industrialisation is pushing the prices of those commodities to ever-higher peaks. The International Energy Agency warned yesterday that Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply "crunch" as soon as 2015. Research from ING suggests that marginal Chinese demand for oil, as a percentage of the growth in total consumption, rose to around 72 per cent in 2006, from 10 per cent in the 1980s. This marginal demand could grow to close to 100 per cent of total consumption growth in 2007.

    Such an appetite brings with it its own dangers, both to China and the rest of the world. As China pushes the price of oil higher, for example, we in the UK are threatened with "slowflation" – where a slowing economy coexists with higher prices of fuel – and food. Were the British economy to slow to a stop – just possible in say a year – we would see the return of stagnant output plus inflation – the "stagflation" last experienced in the UK in the early 1980s. This is all developing because commodity inflation is spreading into a second phase covering the so-called "soft commodities", as China's burgeoning middle classes develop a taste for a more Western style of eating, enjoying foods such as milk, pork and beef that were once scarce. Like other peoples suddenly able to expunge the memories of socialist starvation, the Chinese are overcompensating for their malnourished past. Thus they have become a net food importer, probably for the first time in their very long history (socialist-inspired famines apart). There's also an aspect of culture; as China embraces the West so its young people are more given to hanging around the branches of Starbucks, McDonald's and KFC that have popped up all over the prosperous east of the nation. The rice bowl is giving way to the burger and shake. The world is seeing some dairy prices up 200 per cent, the cost of wheat doubling and pork up 50 per cent.

    In the past decade alone, meat consumption in China has been rising at an average of 2kg per capita per year, a pattern mirrored elsewhere. Over the past few decades, consumption of meat in developing countries has grown at a rate of 5 to 6 per cent a year; consumption of dairy products at 4 per cent. Meat consumption is growing 10 times faster in newly industrialised countries than in, say, bacon-loving Britain. Poultry is the fastest growing sector worldwide; it represented 13 per cent of meat production in the 1960s, compared with 28 per cent now. Poultry is the most efficient means of converting grain into animal protein; the less palatable truth is that it is more effective to eat the grain directly.

    Agricultural inflation – "agflation" in another of these modish phrases – is not entirely down to the Chinese. There are other factors. Freakish weather conditions across the world haven't helped: hurricanes in Florida and floods in England affect the cost of the orange juice and brussels sprouts on your dining table. (Then again, China's breakneck rush for coal-powered growth, and our own profligacy, have caused the global warming that may have intensified these storms.)

    Then there's the switch to biofuels which has pushed grain prices higher. So called "phase one" biofuels – bioethanol (a petrol substitute or additive) from grain and biodiesel from palm oil – have met with opposition from environmentalists. Palm oil production has encroached on the remaining rainforest in Indonesia. We are only at the start of the process. Credit Suisse's economist Andrew Garthwaite points out that biofuels make up 3.5 per cent of US gasoline consumption. In January, President George Bush pledged a biofuel target of 20 per cent of US fuel consumption within 10 years. This means more of America's corn harvest being put into the tanks of cars rather than the bellies of Mexicans, with upward effects on the price of grain: "The 35 billion gallons of ethanol required to meet the 20 per cent target will account for 40 per cent of the US corn crop by 2017," Mr Garthwaite says. Worldwide, "the combined impact of these targets commits 238 million acres or 12 per cent of global arable and permanent cropland to biofuel production". Crucially, though, "second generation" biofuels will use waste material and be a more unequivocally green and economical option; the stalks of grain crops rather than their seeds; surplus cellulose from paper mills; grass cuttings from your lawn.

    The big picture, according to Credit Suisse, is that, globally, demand for food and biofuels will grow at about 3.3 per cent per annum – compared with the historic average of 2.3 per cent. Can supply – of food and other commodities – keep pace with a step change in demand?

    It was Thomas Malthus who predicted, way back in 1798 as the West was undergoing the transformation China and India are now, that the tendency for populations to rise at a geometric rate while agricultural production rises at an arithmetic rate would constrain population growth through periodic famines. Malthus was wrong, because he failed to foresee the rapid growth in agricultural productivity – crop rotation, selective breeding and mechanisation. Agronomists are scarcely less imaginative today, yet there are political, environmental and physical obstacles which make the business of extracting more crops for fuel and food tricky. Genetic modification, for example, is viewed with deep suspicion by some shoppers, and politicians have shown themselves unwilling to take on the voters' prejudices. Ditto the supermarkets, at least in the UK.

  6. [verwijderd] 9 november 2007 21:51
    deel II

    Apart from China, Brazil, Indonesia and Argentina have the greatest potential for increased acreage and urbanisation, but the environmental cost – itself an economic burden that will have to be shouldered – ought to restrict incursion on pristine environments. When it comes to productivity – the factor that saved the world from a Malthusian nightmare 200 years ago – things are looking a little grim. In the case of cereals, productivity has grown at only 1.3 per cent in the past 20 years.

    So the outlook is for agricultural, commodity and oil prices to carry on rising. The $100 barrel of oil could be just the start. Bad news for Britain and the West – but worse for poorer peoples. Countries such as Bangladesh with large and growing populations but who are net importers of food will feel the effects badly (on top of dealing with rising sea levels in the Ganges delta). The less developed the economy, the greater the share of food prices in the shopping basket, and thus the bigger the impact on standards of living. In the West, food accounted for about 18 per cent of headline inflation in 2007; in eastern Europe it was 33 per cent, and in the Middle East 52 per cent. Everywhere, and especially in the least-developed regions, there will be a regressive redistribution of income, from the very poorest to the relatively well off, as food accounts for such an overwhelming proportion of the living costs of those at the bottom of the heap. In China that means the rural poor, already a source of anxiety of Beijing as it seeks "balanced" growth. Everywhere, pressure on water supplies and migration will inevitably follow.

    We may grumble about another few pence on the price of a loaf and the £1 litre of petrol, but we should also be aware that those nations emerging from poverty – China, India, Brazil – are exacting a heavy price on those left behind.
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