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Home  /   Forum   /   Koffiekamer   /   Japan is weer terug

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Japan is weer terug

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251 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 ... 13 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  4. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 13:48
    quote:

    RalphDeBeer schreef:

    Toch een goed column van Erem..
    Ja, en wat een timing he.

    Dus in tegenstelling tot de goegemeente die nu pas “kopen!” begint te roepen, zeg ik na zo’n 1.500 punten winst: even rustig aan! trading geörienteerde kunnen shortposities innemen. Voor de langetermijnbelegger geldt naar mijn idee het devies:wachten met kopen.

    Dat is dus van gisteren 14.00. Echt heel knap.
  5. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 15:37
    quote:

    MoneyHoneyMaker schreef:

    Ik heb 50 TS Nikkei met stop loss 15.000 erbij genomen...
    Just in case

    Hier zit ik ook aan te denken. Momenteel wapen ik me echter met goedkope calls. Misschien gaan we nog een paar dagen wat omlaag, maar over een aantal weken staan we toch wel weer dik boven de 400.

    Nikkei's aan het inruilen voor AEX calls:

    spread maart06 440-460;
    juni06 460;
    spread september06 440-460;
    okt07 540;
    dec08 580;

    Wat RDS erbij:
    dec05 28

    En een kleine verzekering:
    AEX put okt06 200

    In overweging:
    Short turbo's op de Nikkei..

    Iemand anders nog ideeen?

    Komende dagen kijken of er nog meer valt te jagen! (of dat ik met de staart tussen mijn benen moet afdruipen)

    Mvg,

    Ralph
  8. [verwijderd] 6 oktober 2005 23:22
    MARKET SCRAMBLE: Unscathed Investors May Yet Get Burned

    TOKYO (Nikkei)--Although individual investors have become an active force, a growing number of them may believe that stocks purchased will always rise, so they could get hurt seriously if the market declines by more than a certain amount.

    Optimistic Internet bulletin board postings about Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. (5405) shares have been prevalent of late. While the stock sank 6 yen in the morning session on Thursday, it climbed to 395 yen per share in the afternoon, up 11 yen from the previous day. It closed at 386 yen, up 2 yen from a day earlier, rising amid a nearly across-the-board decline in the Tokyo stock market.

    One factor behind the steelmaker's popularity is that foreign investors that have seen the strong performance of Japanese stocks are raising the percentages of such shares in their portfolios, which had been kept low, to a level on a par with the market average, according to an information officer at a midsize brokerage.

    As of Sept. 30, the outstanding long margin balance for the stock jumped 50% from the previous week to an unprecedented 194.28 million shares, underscoring the active participation of individuals.

    Sumitomo Metal's operations in seamless pipe as well as high-grade steel for automakers and shipbuilders have been strong, and the company is sure to post record profit for the current year through March 31, 2006, that will sharply exceed its previous all-time high. But from the viewpoint of the market, one must wonder whether conditions warrant investors' bullish stance.

    Sumitomo Metal has doubled in the past two months. In particular, the rapid rise since mid-September has been phenomenal, with the stock 48% above the 25-day moving average at one point. Although the closing price on Thursday was about 10% below the year-to-date high marked a week earlier, it was still 19% above the 25-day moving average.

    Any investor with some experience should feel that something is wrong when there is still optimistic talk under these conditions -- almost like during Japan's bubble economy days, when unrealized profits on landholdings were factored into stock prices. So the reason that Sumitomo Metal shares are still attracting so many buy orders may be the increase in the number of investors who have never experienced "defeat."

    Ever since hitting a bottom of 7,607 on April 28, 2003, the lowest since the collapse of Japan's bubble economy, the Nikkei Stock Average has continued to rise for over two years without what can be called a downtrend.

    This overlaps with the period in which online trading spread rapidly. Accounts at the five major online brokerages reached a combined 2.17 million as of Aug. 31, but a little less than 60% of these, or 1.26 million accounts, were created in May 2003 and later -- after stock prices turned up.

    So we cannot rule out the possibility that there has been a considerable increase in the number of rookie investors who are naive in believing that stocks will always rise.

    Buying on a dip during a correction phase is an appropriate investment technique -- but if the market is full of investors who chase after shares without taking into consideration the risks of bigger-than-expected drops, then they may be hurt irrecoverably if stock prices decline more than a certain level.

    We can only hope that the optimism we see on Internet bulletin boards is not a strategic scheme to fuel buying.

    --Translated from an article by Nikkei staff writer Shigeyuki Yamashita

    (The Nikkei Financial Daily Friday edition)
  9. [verwijderd] 7 oktober 2005 09:44
    Stocks: Nikkei Falls For 3rd Straight Day After U.S. Shares' Losses

    TOKYO (Kyodo)--The key Nikkei stock index continued to fall Friday, following this year's second-biggest single-day loss marked the previous day, as overnight losses in U.S. shares delivered another blow to the Tokyo market.

    The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average declined 131.77 points, or 0.99 percent, to 13,227.74. After ending at a fresh four-year and four-month high Tuesday, the index has fallen for three straight trading days. This is the longest losing streak since July 8 when the index fell for four days in a row.

    But the Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 1.15 points, or 0.08 percent, to 1,372.52, after moving in and out of negative territory.

    With U.S. shares continuing losing ground amid concerns over inflation, market players grew cautious over the outlook for the U.S. economy and a possible fall in the flow of overseas funds into Japanese stocks, brokers said.

    Tsuyoshi Segawa, equity strategist at Shinko Securities Co., said that the weakness of U.S. stocks raised concerns that overseas investors, who played a major role in boosting Japanese shares lately, may slow their buying.

    ''Large falls in U.S. shares should lower foreign players' tolerance for risk,'' he said.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.29 percent Thursday for the fourth straight trading day of decline, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.90 percent, extending its losing streak to three trading days.

    Declining issues led advancing ones 816 to 734, with 117 shares ending unchanged.

    Trading volume on the TSE's main section decreased to 2,691.89 million shares from Thursday's 2,815.57 million shares.

    The TSE's Second Section index rose 18.21 points, or 0.45 percent, to 4,103.93 on a volume of 301.62 million shares. In Osaka, the near-term December Nikkei 225 index futures contract dropped 50 points to 13,230.
  11. [verwijderd] 7 oktober 2005 10:09
    Komt allemaal goed.
    Alleen ze lijken toch niet te ontkomen aan de koersval in WS.

    Stocks: End Mixed; Nikkei Two-Wk Low On Tech Selling

    TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Nikkei 225 Stock Average extended its sell-off Friday, as continued weakness on Wall Street spurred selling of high-tech exporters such as Kyocera, Tokyo Electron and Fanuc.

    "We can't ignore New York," given increasing concerns that U.S. stocks may head south amid fears of inflation and an economic slowdown in the U.S., said Masatoshi Sato, senior strategist at Mizuho Investors Securities.

    The tech-heavy Nikkei 225 fell to a two-week low, shedding 131.77 points, or 1.0%, to close at 13227.74. That followed a steep 330.38-point decline Thursday, the second-biggest point drop this year.

    Among heavyweight losers in the Nikkei index, Kyocera sank 3.3% to Y7,740, Tokyo Electron fell 2.8% to Y5,830 and Fanuc dropped 2.7% to Y9,000.

    But the broader Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues ended up 1.15 points, or 0.1%, at 1372.52 after losing 38.30 points Thursday.

    Traders said the overall stock market was unexpectedly solid, helped by brisk buying of banks and steel makers - shares that are considered to be linked more closely to the domestic economy than their high-tech counterparts, traders said.

    Such buying, despite caution over the U.S. market's reaction to non-farm payrolls data due later today and a usual pickup in profit-taking before a three-day weekend in Japan, may underline that many investors are still bullish on the outlook, traders said.

    Sumitomo Metal Industries, the most heavily traded issue on the TSE's First Section, jumped 4.7% to Y404. Nippon Steel, the second most active stock, climbed 3.2% to Y416.

    In the banking sector, Resona Holdings surged 4.1% to Y278,000 and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group gained 3.3% to Y988,000.

    Trading volume on the TSE's First Section slipped to an estimated 2.692 billion shares from 2.816 billion shares Thursday. In value terms, turnover on the section dropped to Y2.271 trillion from Y2.577 trillion yesterday.

  14. Frits_O 7 oktober 2005 22:28
    De stijging van de laatste tijd is wel erg snel gegaan. Ik heb dan ook mijn winst verzilverd en hoop op wat lagere niveaus terug te kopen. Lukt dit niet dan koop weer terug en heb een stukje koersstijging misgelopen. Kan iemand mij vertellen wanneer een turbo eindigt? Of hoe lang moet het stopp loss niveau bereikt zijn? Intraday of 1dag, 3dagen ?

    Groeten Frits
  15. [verwijderd] 8 oktober 2005 11:15
    De Nikkei breekt de korte stijgende trend vanaf september 2005 (13282). Verder wordt de Japanse beurs (Nikkei 225 index) getroffen door flinke winstnemingen. De index breekt de korte stijgende trend vanaf september. Zou rekening houden met een correctie richting 12500 - 12200. Hier ligt lange termijn steun die gevormd wordt door de toppen van april 2004 en de bodem van augustus en daarna gaan we er weer vol in. Mochten we van de week boven de 13282 dan kunnen we wellicht alsnog instappen....

    Better to be safe than to be sorry.....
  16. [verwijderd] 9 oktober 2005 13:11
    MARKET SCRAMBLE: Analysts Unsure If Japan Stocks Are Overvalued

    TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Nikkei Stock Average has risen more than 20% since hitting a year-to-date low in mid-May, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat during the same period, spurring discussions on whether Japanese shares are overvalued.

    Based on fiscal 2006 earnings projections, the average forward price-earnings ratio of companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section is about 16.7. The ratio for Standard & Poor's 500 firms is about 14. The figures had closely tracked each other since the middle of 2002, but Japanese stocks have recently opened a nearly 3-point gap over U.S. issues, the widest margin in three years.

    Some market analysts argue that the divergence indicates Japanese shares are overvalued. While some point to Japan's low long-term government bond yields among industrialized nations as a reason for the stocks' relative attractiveness, naysayers note that this characterization does not take into consideration that foreigners are the core investors in Japanese shares. Given that such investors would monitor U.S. and other overseas interest rates, Japanese stocks would not be seen as discounted in terms of the earnings yield, or per-share earnings divided by the current share price, which stands at around 5%.

    Overseas investors have been avid buyers of Japanese shares since the summer, but they are operating under several misconceptions, according to Tsutomu Fujita, Japanese-stock strategist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd.

    The Liberal Democratic Party's landslide victory in the recent lower house election spurred expectations that structural reforms would move forward under the leadership of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Fujita notes. But he says that overseas investors are failing to account for the massive tax increases that will follow the privatization of the nation's postal operations, cooling off the economy.

    Other analysts see Japanese issues as appropriately priced against future earnings, focusing on the ability of domestic firms to sustain their earnings growth.

    The projected fiscal 2006 net profit growth for both Japanese and U.S. companies is about 11%, according to the figures of research institutes and others. But much of the growth in the U.S. is attributed to the financial and energy sectors, which some say are buoyed by housing and oil bubbles. On the other hand, Japanese firms are taking the offensive, having recovered from excesses in production capacity, inventory and personnel.

    "In light of an economic expansion led by steady domestic demand, stronger medium- to long-term growth can be expected relative to U.S. firms," says Nomura Securities Co. strategist Seiichiro Iwasawa.

    These analysts also cite the inflow of money from individual investors as a factor bolstering supply-demand conditions. The persistence of ultralow interest rates and the introduction of stock investment trusts at post offices this month have fueled this influx.

    "When the baby boom generation begins to retire in 2007, an inflow of retirement funds could push price-earnings ratios toward 30," one analyst says.

    But such predictions play fast-and-loose with the underlying purpose of the ratio, which measures a company's growth potential against the price of its stock. Even if the inflow of new funds tightens supply-demand conditions, investors who get caught up in the euphoric trading environment face the pitfalls of evaluating stocks through bubble-era standards.

    --Translated from an article by Nikkei staff writer Jo Kawakami

    (The Nikkei Financial Daily Saturday edition)
251 Posts
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#/^ Index indications calculated real time, zie disclaimer