Aandeel ASML Holding AEX:ASML.NL, NL0010273215

quote:

Kaste schreef op 14 november 2024 09:16:

[...]

Laat ze dan ook hun koersdoel aanpassen: op 10 oktober en 16 oktober een koersdoel van € 1.260,- en op 17 oktober € 760,- waar nu blijkt dat ze altijd van mening zijn geweest dat er geen tegenwind is.......beetje raar dit

quote:

toob schreef op 14 november 2024 09:27:

To provide a valuation for ASML based on the information given in the press release, we'll use a simplified Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. We'll make some assumptions based on the data provided and use the 9% discount rate you specified.

Key Information from the Press Release

- ASML projects annual revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030
- Gross margin is expected to be between 56% and 60% by 2030
- The semiconductor market is expected to grow at approximately 9% annually from 2025-2030

Assumptions and Calculations

Let's use the midpoint of the projected ranges for our calculations:

1. Projected 2030 Revenue: €52 billion (midpoint of €44-60 billion range)
2. Projected 2030 Gross Margin: 58% (midpoint of 56-60% range)

We'll need to make some additional assumptions:

3. Operating Margin: Let's assume 35% (typical for high-performing tech companies)
4. Tax Rate: Assume 25% (approximate global average)
5. Growth Rate beyond 2030: 3% (conservative long-term growth estimate)

Now, let's calculate:

1. 2030 Operating Profit: €52 billion * 35% = €18.2 billion
2. 2030 Net Income: €18.2 billion * (1 - 0.25) = €13.65 billion

DCF Valuation

Using the Gordon Growth Model for terminal value:

Terminal Value = 2031 Cash Flow / (Discount Rate - Growth Rate)
= (€13.65 billion * 1.03) / (0.09 - 0.03)
= €234.45 billion

Present Value of Terminal Value (discounted back 6 years from 2030):
= €234.45 billion / (1.09^6) = €139.76 billion

For simplicity, let's assume cash flows grow linearly from the current year (2024) to 2030:

Average annual growth in cash flow = (€13.65 billion - Current Cash Flow) / 6 years

Assuming current cash flow is around €5 billion (estimated based on recent performance):

Average annual growth = (€13.65 billion - €5 billion) / 6 = €1.44 billion per year

Present Value of Cash Flows 2024-2030:
2024: €5.00 billion / 1.09^1 = €4.59 billion
2025: €6.44 billion / 1.09^2 = €5.42 billion
2026: €7.88 billion / 1.09^3 = €6.08 billion
2027: €9.32 billion / 1.09^4 = €6.59 billion
2028: €10.76 billion / 1.09^5 = €6.97 billion
2029: €12.20 billion / 1.09^6 = €7.27 billion
2030: €13.65 billion / 1.09^7 = €7.45 billion

Sum of Present Values 2024-2030: €44.37 billion

Total Valuation:
= Present Value of Cash Flows + Present Value of Terminal Value
= €44.37 billion + €139.76 billion
= €184.13 billion

Conclusion

Based on the given information and assumptions, using a 9% discount rate, the estimated valuation for ASML is approximately €184 billion. This valuation reflects the company's strong growth prospects in the semiconductor industry, particularly with the expected boost from AI technologies and the continued demand for advanced lithography systems.

It's important to note that this is a simplified model and actual valuation could vary based on more detailed financial information, market conditions, and potential risks not accounted for in this calculation. Additionally, ASML's actual performance may differ from these projections due to various factors mentioned in their forward-looking statements disclaimer.

quote:

kweetnie schreef op 14 november 2024 09:47:

Dit is alleen maar om de koers te ondersteunen, niks meer en minder.
Laat je toch niet foppen.
ASML kan vanalles roepen maar we zullen zien of het ook waargemaakt kan gaan worden.
Eerstvolgende minder goede bericht en je krijgt weer een daling zoals in oktober, ben gewaarschuwd.

quote:

JefPollet schreef op 14 november 2024 10:24:

Als dit zo doorgaat, en vanmiddag verloopt goed, verwacht ik ook een stuw naar boven door de amerikanen

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Lieutenant Price schreef op 14 november 2024 10:31:

Op Wall Street, Yankeeland is het nu 04:30 's ochtends. Mag hopen dat ze over een paar uur opstaan en de ASML outlook handhaving lezen, en dan weer massaal ASML inkopen!

quote:

toob schreef op 14 november 2024 10:43:

[...]

Ik hoop het hoor (heb 98 stuks) maar ik richt me vooral op de US market en daar hadden ze voor oktober vooral op een outlook verhoging gerekend. Zal dus vast wat herstellen na 43% daling..maar ze zijn nog altijd teleurgesteld in een handhaving. Dat is nu ook de algehele tendens op X.