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Aandeel ASML Holding AEX:ASML.NL, NL0010273215

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
688,000   -2,000   (-0,29%) Dagrange 677,500 - 691,400 442.214   Gem. (3M) 731,8K

ASML 2024

29.974 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 947 948 949 950 951 ... 1499 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 4 LexKalin 23 september 2024 22:17
    quote:

    Verit schreef op 23 september 2024 21:42:

    [...]

    Zin in tranches kopen van bleeknaasjes en petters op het AEX casino, met het dag gilde die de koers omlaag manipuleert omdat ze voorkennis hebben van exportrestricties die oud nieuws zijn geworden sinds de recessie in Amerika gaat losbarsten terwijl het forum hier wordt volgeklad?

    Ja joh! Lekker luieren. Wie doet er nog een muziekje bij?

    youtu.be/qOofbG0_ypY?si=q-lLHsDuiP1zBHj4
    Briljante terechte samenvatting
  2. Verit 23 september 2024 23:04
    ASML: Export Restriction Priced In Already; Upgrade To Buy (Seeking Alpha)

    Summary

    I upgraded ASML to a ‘Buy’ with a one-year price target of €810 per share, reflecting the stock's current pricing of China export restrictions.

    Despite China's progress in EUV technology, I believe they are still a decade behind ASML, mitigating immediate competitive threats.

    ASML's near-term revenue may decline by 8% in FY24, but I remain optimistic about long-term growth driven by AI, automotive chips, and IoT.

    I believe the expanded export restrictions have minimal financial impact on ASML, and I anticipate a 14% organic revenue growth rate from FY25 onwards.


    I downgraded ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) to 'Sell' in July 2024, arguing the near-term risk of China's export restrictions. Since then, the stock price has declined by more than 16%. In hindsight, I made the right call by cashing out my ASML positions. Recently, Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment filed a patent application covering an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine, and I think China has made some early progress in the EUV market. Meanwhile, the Dutch Government added 1970i and 1980i to the export restriction list. I think most of these risks are now reflected in their stock price; therefore, I added ASML to my portfolio again and upgraded to a 'Buy' rating with a one-year price target of €810 per share, or $904 in USD.

    Export Restriction & China's Progress in EUV Technology

    As discussed in my previous article, the Biden administration informed its allies that it was planning the most severe trade restrictions if ASML continued to sell advanced semiconductor technologies to China. On September 7th, the Dutch government expanded their export control measure to advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. As a result, ASML needs to obtain a license if they export 1970i and 1980i immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) machine, spare parts, and software updates to China. As shown in the table below, the Dutch government has outlined very specific export restrictions for lithographic equipment.

    Dutch Government

    As reported by Financial Times in September 2024, US and Japan were close to reaching a deal to curb exports to China's chip industry, a strategic move aimed at further restricting EUV/DUV-related exports to China. However, the potential export restriction from Japan would have an impact more on Japanese semiconductor equipment companies.
    At the same time, Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment filed a patent application covering an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in September. Local Chinese media praised their progress in the high-end EUV market. As reported by the media, there are two products in the market right now:
    One DUV lithography machine operates at a wavelength of 193 nm, with a resolution below 65 nm and an overlay accuracy below 8 nm;
    The other DUV machine operates at a wavelength of 248 nm, with 110 nm resolution and 25 nm overlay accuracy,
    In contrast, ASML's DUV can operate at a resolution of below 38 nm with an overlay accuracy of 1.3 nm. Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment launched their DUV lithography machines with 90 nm resolution in 2018. Since then, the company has attempted to advance into the 65 nm market; however, their progress has been significantly impacted by U.S. government export restrictions on high-end chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. After six years, they have finally advanced to 65 nm in the DUV lithography machine. I estimate China is still at least a decade behind ASML's technology. As such, I am not overly concerned about China's progress in the lithography machines market.

    Outlook and Valuation Update

    As discussed in my previous coverage, ASML delivered an impressive booking growth in Q2 FY24. As depicted in the chart below, it is evident that ASML has already bottomed out their booking growth over the past few quarters. As revenue growth typically lags several quarters behind their booking growth, I anticipate their revenue growth will start to recover starting in FY25.

    ASML Quarterly Results

    For their near-term growth, I am considering the following factors:
    On September 6th, ASML issued a release indicating the expanded export restriction will not have any impact on their financial outlook for 2024 or on their longer-term growth target. As discussed, ASML needs to obtain export licenses from the Dutch government for shipments of its TWINSCAN NXT:1970i and 1980i DUV immersion lithography systems. As ASML hasn't quantified the financial impact of the expanded China export restrictions, I estimate the sales of TWINSCAN NXT:1970i and 1980i DUV in China would be less than 1% of total revenue. Again, the Dutch government just requires ASML to obtain an export license before shipments. As such, ASML might or might not be able to sell their 1970i and 1980i to China going forward. I guess it is subject to the geopolitical relationship between the U.S. and China.

    As analyzed in my previous coverage, I anticipate FY24 will be a transition year for ASML as the semiconductor fabs normalize their manufacturing capacity. As such, I forecast ASML's revenue will decline by 8% in FY24.

    For the growth from FY25 onwards, I remain optimistic about ASML's growth potential, as the overall semiconductor market will be boosted by AI training/inference, as well as automotive chips and industrial/IoT. In my previous DCF model, I anticipated ASML would deliver 15% organic revenue growth. However, due to the expanded export restriction, I am reducing the normalized organic revenue growth rate to 14% in the current model.
    On the margin side, I model 20bps annual margin expansion, driven by 10bps from gross profits due to price increases and 10bps from operating leverage from SG&A costs. As ASML continues to repurchase their own stock, I forecast the total number of shares outstanding will decline by 1% annually.
    With these assumptions, the DCF and free cash flow from equity (FCFE) can be summarized as follows:

    ASML DCF
    The cost of equity is calculated to be 13% assuming: a risk-free rate 3.6%; beta 1.51; equity risk premium 6.5%. Discounting all the FCFE, the one-year target price is calculated to be €810 per share, or $904 in USD. As such, the current stock price has already priced in the expanded export restrictions, according to my DCF model.

    Key Downside Risk

    During their Q2 FY24 earnings call, the management indicated their intention to increase capacity next year to meet the growing demands for their high-end EUV products. The company is ramping up their 2-nanometer capacity, as the foundry players plan to adopt 2 nm starting in the second half of 2025. I think it makes sense for ASML to expand their capacity, considering the strong recovery in bookings. Having said that, the capacity increase will put some pressure on their free cash flow growth in the near term, as the company is more likely to increase CAPEX in FY25.

    Conclusion

    I think the current stock price has already priced in the near-term challenges related to the expanded China restrictions. ASML remains a respectable player in the EUV market, benefiting from global semiconductor growth. Therefore, I am buying back my ASML position and upgrading it to a 'Buy' rating with a one-year price target of €810 per share or $904 in USD.
  3. Verit 23 september 2024 23:42
    quote:

    LexKalin schreef op 23 september 2024 23:18:

    Het zou mij enorm teleurstellen als wij een jaar op 810 zouden moeten wachten want het rond mijn breakeven op dat moment is.
    Als er niks fundamenteel wijzigt aan de plannen en vooruitzichten denk ik dat we in september 2025 aardig boven die 810 gaan zitten.

    Maar zover zijn we nog niet. Eerst maar eens de volgende kwartaalcijfers en outlook bekijken.
  4. forum rang 6 Inion 23 september 2024 23:55
    quote:

    Verit schreef op 23 september 2024 23:42:

    [...]

    Als er niks fundamenteel wijzigt aan de plannen en vooruitzichten denk ik dat we in september 2025 aardig boven die 810 gaan zitten.

    Maar zover zijn we nog niet. Eerst maar eens de volgende kwartaalcijfers en outlook bekijken.
    De rentedaling gaat mee helpen.
  5. Bertus 24 september 2024 04:36
    quote:

    Verit schreef op 23 september 2024 23:42:

    [...]

    Als er niks fundamenteel wijzigt aan de plannen en vooruitzichten denk ik dat we in september 2025 aardig boven die 810 gaan zitten.

    Maar zover zijn we nog niet. Eerst maar eens de volgende kwartaalcijfers en outlook bekijken.
    2025 lijkt wel redelijk goed te komen, het probleem zit bij de daarop volgende jaren, die lijken toch wat minder te worden, dan zijn we de rente verlaging echt wel nodig om op niveau te blijven, 810 zou al een mooi niveau zijn, ruim 10% boven het huidige niveau
  6. forum rang 6 Op en Neer 24 september 2024 05:34
    quote:

    Inion schreef op 23 september 2024 23:55:

    [...]

    De rentedaling gaat mee helpen.
    Er komen nog vele kleine stappen renteverlagingen, welke gunstig zijn voor met name de tech aandelen. Bovendien we hebben steeds meer chips nodig. De lange termijn ziet er nog steeds goed uit.
  7. forum rang 10 voda 24 september 2024 06:31
    Beursupdate: AEX op Wall Street

    (ABM FN-Dow Jones) Op Wall Street zijn maandag twee van de acht AEX-genoteerde fondsen ten opzichte van het slot in Amsterdam hoger gesloten. ASML was met een winst van 0,7 procent de sterkste stijger. Aegon was met een verlies van 0,5 procent de sterkste daler.

    Aegon (-0,5%)
    ArcelorMittal (-0,2%)
    ASML (+0,7%)
    ING Groep (0,0%)
    Philips (-0,2%)
    RELX (+0,1%)
    Shell (-0,2%)
    Unilever (0,0%)

    Euro/dollar: 1,1113

    Op basis van de bovenstaande koersuitslagen zou de AEX index, die sloot op 903,47 punten, zijn geëindigd op 903,01 punten.

    Bron: ABM Financial News
  8. forum rang 6 Nakennis 24 september 2024 09:08
    On US visit, Dutch politician talks importance of ASML, China trade
    On a visit to Washington, the Dutch economy minister underlined the importance of China as a trading partner and repeated that ASML must be allowed to ‘do business as freely as possible’.

    Published: 1:00pm, 24 Sep 2024

    On a visit to Washington, the Netherlands’ economy minister on Monday underlined the importance of China as a trading partner and repeated that Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML must be allowed to “do business as freely as possible”.

    Dirk Beljaarts underlined that his meeting with US Deputy Secretary of Commerce Don Graves was to promote bilateral trade, not to negotiate over export restrictions, which do not fall under his purview.

    Beljaarts’ visit comes ahead of an expected expansion of US rules restricting semiconductor exports to certain computer chip plants in China.

    ASML is the largest supplier of equipment to computer chip makers. Earlier this month, the Netherlands government began requiring export licenses for more of ASML’s product range to China, following pressure from the US.

    ASML headquarters in Veldhoven, Netherlands, Jan. 24, 2024. Photo: Bloomberg
    ASML headquarters in Veldhoven, Netherlands, Jan. 24, 2024. Photo: Bloomberg
    While the US is an important Dutch ally and trading partner, Taiwan, China and South Korea are ASML’s biggest markets.

    “The Chinese are an important trade partner, as is the United States and many other countries in the world, and we have our own economy to upkeep and to make sure that our companies can do business as freely as possible,” Beljaarts said.

    “We know that ASML is a crown jewel for the Netherlands, which we are very proud of, and from our perspective, it’s important that the company can operate as freely as possible within the boundaries that are there. And what we discussed primarily is how we can further progress the cooperation between the two countries.”
  9. forum rang 6 Nakennis 24 september 2024 09:11
    Vertaling vanuit translate:

    Tijdens een bezoek aan Washington onderstreepte de Nederlandse minister van Economie maandag het belang van China als handelspartner en herhaalde hij dat de Nederlandse fabrikant van halfgeleiderapparatuur ASML “zo vrij mogelijk zaken moet kunnen doen”.

    Dirk Beljaarts onderstreepte dat zijn ontmoeting met de Amerikaanse vice-minister van Handel Don Graves bedoeld was om de bilaterale handel te bevorderen, en niet om te onderhandelen over exportbeperkingen, die niet onder zijn bevoegdheid vallen.

    Het bezoek van Beljaart loopt vooruit op een verwachte uitbreiding van de Amerikaanse regels die de export van halfgeleiders naar bepaalde computerchipfabrieken in China beperken.

    ASML is de grootste leverancier van apparatuur aan computerchipfabrikanten. Eerder deze maand begon de Nederlandse overheid exportvergunningen te eisen voor een groter deel van ASML’s productassortiment naar China, onder druk van de VS.

    ASML-hoofdkantoor in Veldhoven, Nederland, 24 januari 2024. Foto: Bloomberg
    Terwijl de VS een belangrijke Nederlandse bondgenoot en handelspartner zijn, zijn Taiwan, China en Zuid-Korea de grootste markten van ASML.

    “De Chinezen zijn een belangrijke handelspartner, net als de Verenigde Staten en veel andere landen in de wereld, en we hebben onze eigen economie die we moeten onderhouden en ervoor moeten zorgen dat onze bedrijven zo vrij mogelijk zaken kunnen doen”, aldus Beljaarts.

    “We weten dat ASML een kroonjuweel is voor Nederland, waar we erg trots op zijn, en vanuit ons perspectief is het belangrijk dat het bedrijf zo vrij mogelijk kan opereren binnen de grenzen die er zijn. En wat we vooral hebben besproken, is hoe we de samenwerking tussen de twee landen verder kunnen bevorderen
29.974 Posts
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