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Home  /  Forum  /  OCI  /  OCI - 2022: Nu of nooit!

Aandeel OCI AEX:OCI.NL, NL0010558797

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
23,400   -0,270   (-1,14%) Dagrange 23,350 - 23,780 172.890   Gem. (3M) 295,5K

OCI - 2022: Nu of nooit!

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7.660 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 103 104 105 106 107 ... 383 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 12:55
    quote:

    eduardo3105 schreef op 8 maart 2022 12:50:

    [...]
    Op koersverloop en omdat zij misschien de regels in Europa zat zijn.
    Daarnaast de meeropbrengst van de verkoop van losse delen tov huidige koers.

    Maarja dat geldt dan alleen voor biomcn en oci nitrogen, die regels.
    En biomcn is net ondergebracht in oci methanol group.
    En oci nitrogen is afhankelijk van ammonia uit het midden oosten.
    Dat maakt die fabriek ook minder aantrekkelijk.
    Maar be my guest. Sawiris mag van mij alles wel verkopen
  3. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:12
    Hoe denken jullie dat OCI kan profiteren van de versnelde energie transitie van voornamelijk de EU?
    Wat is de EU van plan en hoe kan OCI daarop inspelen? Willen ze nog sneller over op waterstof? En dat OCI via ammonia daarop kan inspelen? Gaan ze schepen op stookolie verbieden en de scheepvaart 'dwingen' om over te stappen op methanol motoren?
  4. forum rang 9 objectief 8 maart 2022 14:34
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:12:

    Hoe denken jullie dat OCI kan profiteren van de versnelde energie transitie van voornamelijk de EU?
    Wat is de EU van plan en hoe kan OCI daarop inspelen? Willen ze nog sneller over op waterstof? En dat OCI via ammonia daarop kan inspelen? Gaan ze schepen op stookolie verbieden en de scheepvaart 'dwingen' om over te stappen op methanol motoren?
    Gezien de koers van OCI YTD gestegen is en die van andere bedrijven soms zelfs meer dan 25% gedaald; constateer ik dat dit bedrijf al maximaal profiteert. Als je nog meer verwacht, dan kan het deksel zomaar op je neus vallen.
  5. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:51
    quote:

    objectief schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:34:

    [...]

    Gezien de koers van OCI YTD gestegen is en die van andere bedrijven soms zelfs meer dan 25% gedaald; constateer ik dat dit bedrijf al maximaal profiteert. Als je nog meer verwacht, dan kan het deksel zomaar op je neus vallen.
    Dan beoordeel je de koers van OCI alleen op basis van de index.
    OCI verdiend haar geld met verkoop van kunstmest, niet met handelen op de beurs....
  7. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:56
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:54:

    www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/agribus...
    About to Get Uglier
    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put a major dent in the likelihood of local urea prices
    significantly declining ahead of the winter and spring application period. We now expect
    global urea prices will increase again to levels just below the November peak for the next
    couple of months, before tapering once again by mid-year.
    Fertiliser markets are likely to be impacted by the crisis in three ways:
    1. Export capacity: Russia itself is a major exporter of fertilisers, especially of ammonium nitrate
    (46% of global exports), ammonia (23%), urea (15%) and mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP)
    (14%). With the addition of Belarus, a total of 40% of global Muriate of Potash exports come
    from the region.
    Although we are yet to see any official sanctions on fertilisers, the impact of other sanctions,
    such as the removal of Russian Banks from the SWIFT payments system, is highly likely to
    reduce the ability of importers to purchase products, even if they could get it out of the region
    (see 2).
    2. Port Access: Many ports across the Black Sea region are now closed. Shipping lines are also
    avoiding Baltic ports due to the high war insurance premiums and the risk ships may get stuck
    in the region.
    3. Gas Supply: The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been halted and EU gas prices again have
    escalated. Russia typically supplies about one third of the EU’s natural gas. Given natural gas is
    the main feedstock for urea, high natural gas prices may elevate urea prices once again.
  8. Dubbeldip 8 maart 2022 15:20
    quote:

    objectief schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:34:

    [...]

    Gezien de koers van OCI YTD gestegen is en die van andere bedrijven soms zelfs meer dan 25% gedaald; constateer ik dat dit bedrijf al maximaal profiteert. Als je nog meer verwacht, dan kan het deksel zomaar op je neus vallen.
    Vreemde beredenering. Zo kun je ook zeggen: Gezien de koers van CF Industries meer dan 35% YTD of op 6 maanden niveau 120% gestegen is constateer ik dat OCI minimaal profiteert. Glas halfleeg of halfvol?

    Zoals BB zegt, OCI doet in kunstmest niet in beurshandel
  9. HD_Erik 8 maart 2022 15:23
    quote:

    BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:54:

    www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/agribus...
    A further escalation and recent heavy
    sanctions on Russia, which will disrupt
    Russian exports of grains, energy and
    fertilisers, is only to a limited extent
    priced in and could still drive prices up.
  20. forum rang 6 BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 19:17
    OCI NV (OCI NA)
    We introduced OCI NV in our first letter which was for the second quarter of 2019. We
    think everything we wrote at the time remains highly relevant. Well, two and half years
    later the shares are only modestly higher, hurting overall fund performance (and having
    traded as much as 50% lower during much of 2020) and yet it remains one of our fund’s
    largest positions. Let’s review some of the pertinent points.
    • Demand for Methanol and ammonia, both used in industrial processes, began
    to weaken in late 2019, this was of course exacerbated by Covid-19 in 2020 and
    led to a plunge in prices., not helped by the major feedstock natural gas price
    collapsing. Despite this and significant plant turnarounds, EBITDA in the
    methanol business was 40% higher in 2020 than in 2019. This was due to a
    disciplined market, which took out capacity and shutout high-cost players.
    Industrial demand came roaring back quickly. Natural gas and oil also recovered
    and even went far higher than pre-COVID levels. This has led to 2021 EBITDA in
    only the first three quarters to be over 100% higher than all of 2020 as prices
    improved drastically.
    • Demand for urea and other nitrogen-based fertilizers were little impacted by
    COVID, however natural gas and coal prices fluctuated with lower prices early
    in 2020 pushing prices to multiyear lows. More importantly for OCI, a flood of
    cheap LNG into Europe, for a very short period flipped global cost curves as
    their fixed priced North African and Middle East contracts temporarily hurt them.
    This of course reversed quickly and now prices have skyrocketed around the
    globe but particularly in Asia and Europe. Higher gas prices have propelled
    nitrogen fertilizer prices dramatically (think $226/ton in the second quarter of
    2020 to as high as $1000 in the fourth quarter of 2021). Nitrogen fertilizer EBITDA
    is some 60% higher in only the first three quarters of 2021 versus 2020. China and
    Russia have put export quotas on some fertilizers as they seek to protect local
    farmers. China’s coal prices have also soared higher as not only environmental
    Page 7
    Palm Harbour Capital LLP
    info@palmharbourcapital.com
    www.palmharbourcapital.com
    issues but also their political relationship with Australia and Indonesian shortages
    affects coal prices and puts their consolidating coal to urea producers out of
    action in the global markets.
    • Not only did COVID affect energy markets in strange ways, but it has also
    delayed projects so additional capacity is limited and transport costs have also
    put a premium on local supplies.
    • Another factor buoying the market is corn prices (and other agricultural products
    that require nitrogen). Corn ended its decade long bear market and is up over
    100% from the lows in 2020. This is due to lower plantings in the US, drought in
    Brazil, globally low inventories, strong Chinese demand due to African Swine
    Fever having killed off their pig herds, which they now need to be rebuilt as well
    as strong demand for ethanol. This has fattened farmer pockets and enabled
    them to buy more fertilizers to seek better yields.
    • Another potential source of growth for both ammonia (the precursor to urea) and
    methanol is the greenification of the energy market. Both have been touted as
    potential candidates to replace bunker fuel in the maritime industry and act as a
    carrier for green hydrogen for other energy uses. This is in the early stages of
    development but could potentially add another leg to the supply/demand story.
    • The past four quarters of high product prices and strong production has led to
    significant cash flows. The company has done several deals (as we alluded to in
    our original write up), which are leading to significant cash-ins. This in turn is
    leading to a significantly stronger balance sheet. The company had above 5x net
    debt to trailing EBITDA in late 2019 and early 2020 with around $5 billion of gross
    debt. This is now drastically different as EBITDA has soared and gross debt has
    plunged. At the end of the third quarter this metric was at only 1.7x with gross
    debt of about $3.8 billion. it is likely to be even lower come the end of the year
    as the recent deals bring in significant cash. This is especially the case when we
    look at the holding company level.
    When we first wrote about OCI we mentioned a JV they had formed with ADNOC
    combining their North African assets with ADNOC’s Abu Dhabi plants. This company
    has subsequently refinanced itself allowing for a special dividend of about $1.2 billion,
    of which 58% or $675 million goes to OCI holding company. The partners then listed
    Fertiglobe on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange leading to IPO proceeds for OCI’s 8% stake
    sold of $461 million. Now as OCI consolidates Fertiglobe, the net debt picture is not
    changed by levering Fertiglobe. However, if we strip Fertigloble out and take the
    consolidated net debt of OCI at the end of the third quarter and subtract Fertigloble’s
    adjusted net debt post transaction of around $1.1 billion and then subtract the IPO
    proceeds we get less than $750 dollars of net debt at the Holdco and keeping
    Fertigloble separate, an equity value of their 50% stake of roughly $4 billion (compared
    to OCI’s equity market cap of $5.5 billion at year-end).
    Page 8
    Palm Harbour Capital LLP
    info@palmharbourcapital.com
    www.palmharbourcapital.com
    When we first wrote we also mentioned Saudi interest in the methanol business. This
    deal unfortunately never happened as it was rumored at a very attractive price for the
    full business. However, recently OCI sold a 15% stake in the business to ADQ and Alpha
    Dhabi Holdings for $375 million implying a price of $2.5 billion for the whole business
    (6.8x trailing EV/EBITDA). This is another $375 million cash in at the Holdco level
    reducing net debt further to less than $400 million.
    Given that we have a market price value for Fertiglobe, which looks reasonable based
    on peers, cash flows and EV per ton of ammonia equivalent capacity, the recent
    transaction in the methanol business, and reasonable EBITDA and cash flow multiples
    on the US and European nitrogen businesses, we can put together a sum-of-the parts.
    We come up with a very conservative 60% upside. Just take equity values, with
    Fertiglobe’s 50% stake at $4 billion and the remaining Methanol at $2.1 billion, that leaves
    the US and European nitrogen businesses with an implied negative $650 million value
    despite minimal debt. Just looking at CF Industries and Yara we find a negative equity
    value a bit unreasonable. The US plant cost over $4 billion to build and is situated in a
    highly desirable location.
    Another way to look at it is on a pure cash flow basis. Let’s look at 2023 and 2024 when
    prices come back to earth. We reckon they can still do $700 million of free cash flow,
    after minorities. On a $5.5 billion market cap that is a 12.7% yield. Given the holding
    company will be net cash sometime in 2022 (ignoring any potential dividend payments)
    we think most of that can be paid out to shareholders. This could easily imply a stock
    price 100% higher.
    OCI is still an advantaged commodity player. Yes, there are risks and in the short-term
    many things can happen as COVID has demonstrated but we think on a normalized
    basis the stock should trade between 50-100% higher. Given the owner and his track
    record, we are sure this value will eventually be realized.
7.660 Posts
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