Crucell« Terug naar discussie overzicht

1. yinx 18 juli 2006 16:38

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   •    yinx

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   Reactie Kempen 18-7-2006
   
   Drops development of Aerugen
   
   Crucell announced that it has decided to suspend further clinical development of Aerugen, its vaccine for the prevention of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in cystic fibrosis patients. Although Crucell had already been downplaying this vaccine, we still need to lower our price target from €30 to €28.
   We reiterate our Buy recommendation, as approval for Crucell’s pentavalent vaccine is expected in the short term, which should be a major trigger for the stock.
   
   �� Valuation In our model we had valued the Aerugen programme at €99m, or €1.7 per Crucell share. As the development of Aerugen is suspended our risk adjusted DCF price target declines from €30 to €28. On our new estimates and the current share price of €14.70 Crucell trades at 12.0 times 2008 P/E, which we find undemanding given the high growth Crucell will be experiencing in the coming years.
2. yinx 30 augustus 2006 11:54

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   Hier de update n.a.v. q2 cijfers(onderbouwing van ) Kempen 30-8-2006.
   
   Remember to deliver in September
   -Crucell reported Q2 06 results with sales in line with our estimate, but a higher loss. In our opinion, the main focus should not be on the results, but on the comments Crucell gave on its Quinvaxem vaccine, as the company is confident it will obtain pre-qualification from the WHO in September. We lower our price target from €28 to €27 due to higher COGS and R&D, but reiterate our Buy recommendation.
   
   - Crucell reported Q2 06 results with sales in line with our estimate, but a higher loss. Sales came in at €21.7m versus our estimate of €22.7m. Gross margin was lower at €5.7m, as we were looking for €11.1m. This was due to accounting issues that valued inventories higher and consequently increased COGS. R&D was €19.2m, higher than our estimate of €8.9m, as we has pencilled in a decline in R&D costs at Berna. This resulted in a reported net loss of €25.7m versus our €14.9m.
   
   - In our opinion, the main focus should not be on the results, but on the comments Crucell gave on its Quinvaxem vaccine. By reiterating its revenues guidance of €130-150m for FY 2006, the company implies that it anticipates pre-qualification from the WHO in September. The reason why Crucell is so confident is because the WHO needs to carry out the same tests as Crucell and the Korean Food and Drug Administration have done. Since the outcomeof these tests has been positive, it is Crucell's conviction that the outcome of the WHO tests will be positive as well. Moreover, Crucell anticipates obtaining the pre-qualification in September, as the first upcoming tender for UNICEF closes in October and this offers an immediate opportunity for selling their product in large quantities.
   
   - Besides its Quinvaxem programme, Crucell is well on track to move several programmes into the clinic in the coming month, being influenza, Ebola, malaria, rabies and tuberculosis. Since most of these programmes are partnered or paid for using external funding or grants, Crucell will only bear the cost of two programmes, being West Nile and rabies.
   
   - Crucell indicated that it intends to arrange funding from several foundations for its malaria vaccine. We believe that a likely foundation to fund this programme would be the Gates Foundation, which has been highly active in the field of malaria. Furthermore, Crucell stated it is confident that it can move this programme forward on its own, which should create more value for Crucell.
   
   - We lower our estimates, as we now assume higher COGS and R&D for the coming years. Consequently, we lower our price target from €28 to €27, but
   reiterate our Buy recommendation.
   
   
3. yinx 30 augustus 2006 11:55

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   •    yinx

     Lid sinds: 09 nov 2000

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   Hier de update m.b.t. q2 cijfers Kempen 30-8-2006.
   
   Remember to deliver in September
   
   -Crucell reported Q2 06 results with sales in line with our estimate, but a higher loss. In our opinion, the main focus should not be on the results, but on the comments Crucell gave on its Quinvaxem vaccine, as the company is confident it will obtain pre-qualification from the WHO in September. We lower our price target from €28 to €27 due to higher COGS and R&D, but reiterate our Buy recommendation.
   
   - Crucell reported Q2 06 results with sales in line with our estimate, but a higher loss. Sales came in at €21.7m versus our estimate of €22.7m. Gross margin was lower at €5.7m, as we were looking for €11.1m. This was due to accounting issues that valued inventories higher and consequently increased COGS. R&D was €19.2m, higher than our estimate of €8.9m, as we has pencilled in a decline in R&D costs at Berna. This resulted in a reported net loss of €25.7m versus our €14.9m.
   
   - In our opinion, the main focus should not be on the results, but on the comments Crucell gave on its Quinvaxem vaccine. By reiterating its revenues guidance of €130-150m for FY 2006, the company implies that it anticipates pre-qualification from the WHO in September. The reason why Crucell is so confident is because the WHO needs to carry out the same tests as Crucell and the Korean Food and Drug Administration have done. Since the outcomeof these tests has been positive, it is Crucell's conviction that the outcome of the WHO tests will be positive as well. Moreover, Crucell anticipates obtaining the pre-qualification in September, as the first upcoming tender for UNICEF closes in October and this offers an immediate opportunity for selling their product in large quantities.
   
   - Besides its Quinvaxem programme, Crucell is well on track to move several programmes into the clinic in the coming month, being influenza, Ebola, malaria, rabies and tuberculosis. Since most of these programmes are partnered or paid for using external funding or grants, Crucell will only bear the cost of two programmes, being West Nile and rabies.
   
   - Crucell indicated that it intends to arrange funding from several foundations for its malaria vaccine. We believe that a likely foundation to fund this programme would be the Gates Foundation, which has been highly active in the field of malaria. Furthermore, Crucell stated it is confident that it can move this programme forward on its own, which should create more value for Crucell.
   
   - We lower our estimates, as we now assume higher COGS and R&D for the coming years. Consequently, we lower our price target from €28 to €27, but
   reiterate our Buy recommendation.