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Home  /   Forum   /   Royal Dutch Shell   /   Uitstappen? Is het echt never sell Shell? -- Vervolg

Aandeel SHELL PLC AEX:SHELL.NL, GB00BP6MXD84

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
30,720   +0,050   (+0,16%) Dagrange 30,555 - 30,795 4.438.875   Gem. (3M) 6,1M

Uitstappen? Is het echt never sell Shell? -- Vervolg

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24.109 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 839 840 841 842 843 ... 1206 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 7 wiegveld 22 juli 2023 21:31
    Europe started building wind farms in the 1990s. Above, wind turbines in the North Sea. COURTESY OF VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
    The new, more urgent age of American offshore wind started at the tail end of Barack Obama’s presidency, when the BOEM began leasing more large ocean-bed parcels for wind development. The agency has now approved leases on more than 2.7 million acres of ocean bottom, an area equivalent to a square more than 60 miles on each side.

    It’s what happens after leases are signed that has stalled the process. The gap between when offshore wind developers secure rights and when the first steel enters the water can run many years. The Montauk project that just placed its first turbine won its lease in 2013, and has since been navigating various approval processes. To get a project off the ground, developers have to wait for states to hold bidding processes to supply power to regulated utilities. After that, the permitting process to lay cables and protect marine life can take years, not to mention the possibility of legal challenges. In that period, developers face considerable inflation risks.

    Companies now caught in the inflation trap are almost all from the other side of the ocean. The projects being developed along the East Coast may have American-sounding names like Commonwealth Wind, but they’re backed almost entirely by European companies that pioneered the modern wind industry and have been working on it for decades. Outside of General Electric (GE), few large U.S. firms are involved. Denmark’s Orsted is the market leader, and its stock the purest play on wind development. Utilities from several European countries have also invested heavily through U.S. subsidiaries.

    Companies such as BP, Shell, and Equinor, known for oil production, have lately turned to offshore wind to decarbonize their energy mix in the face of government and investor pressure. With high cash flows from fossil fuels in the past few years, those companies plowed large investments into offshore wind.

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    As competition rose, bids on acreage in one section of the ocean off New York skyrocketed last year. Several European companies, including joint ventures involving TotalEnergies (TTE) and Shell, paid more than $700 million each for sections of the ocean bottom. The parcels contained less acreage than farms other companies had leased for less than $10 million prior to the pandemic, according to Freshney, the Credit Suisse analyst. “The cost just went through the roof,” he says. “It was a bubble.”

    Other costs soared, too, because of inflation pressures that have also hurt other industries. Steel is much pricier than it was prior to the pandemic, for instance. A consultant hired by the wind developer on Shell’s Massachusetts project estimated that costs have risen more than 20% since 2019, and rising interest rates have added more financial stress. “This is not an industry that is in a healthy and mature state,” the report said. Another problem: The supply chain to build wind turbines is nowhere near ready to handle the influx of projects. Installation capacity is at 20% of where it needs to be, according to a study by energy consultant Wood Mackenzie.

    Now, states are trying to manage the fallout. Offshore wind projects backed by Shell, BP, Iberdrola, and several others have already said they need to renegotiate the contracts, with the implicit—and sometimes explicit—threat that they could pull out. The new terms will have to be more lucrative for project developers, with electricity prices probably linked to inflation.

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    Regulators now face a “huge problem from a ratepayer’s perspective,” said Ronald Gerwatowski, chairman of the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission, at a recent hearing about offshore wind. Developers can essentially hold regulators hostage by threatening to walk away from already-permitted projects unless rates are hiked.

    Already, some states have agreed to change policies in a way that could lead to more-expensive rates. In Maryland, a new law shifts some of the federal Inflation Reduction Act’s support from consumers to wind developers. Previously, Maryland law said 80% of the federal benefits had to go to the consumers.

    New Jersey’s legislature also just passed a law that will redirect federal tax money to Orsted to complete an offshore project known as Ocean Winds 1 that will supply enough power for 500,000 homes. Those funds were previously expected to go to electricity consumers. Republicans opposed it, with state Sen. Edward Durr calling it a “huge handout at the expense of New Jersey utility customers,” one that could cost up to $1 billion. Orsted tells Barron’s that the bill denied each New Jersey ratepayer only about $2.40 per year, and won’t result in a real hike in electricity rates.
  2. forum rang 7 wiegveld 22 juli 2023 21:31
    After New Jersey passed the bill, developers of another wind project in New Jersey—Atlantic Shores, backed by Shell and French utility EDF—said they needed similar support. “Tens of thousands of real, well-paid, and unionized jobs are at risk,” the developers said. “Hundreds of millions in infrastructure investments will be forgone without a path forward.” The governor’s office declined to comment about the request.

    Orsted is also talking to New York officials about boosting payments to wind developers based on inflation rates. New York’s new contracts have mechanisms that allow for inflation adjustments, but the contracts that Orsted signed in the past don’t.

    “We sign multidecade contracts to sell the power at an agreed price before the project is ever built,” says Orsted spokesman Ryan Ferguson. The per-megawatt value has to pencil out over a 25-year contract, but “they’re not doing so based on current development costs.”

    New York officials say they are reviewing Orsted’s proposals for inflation adjustments. The state is already expecting wind power to be more expensive than other sources. “Electricity consumers across the state can expect to see slight increases in electricity bills to support offshore wind development once the projects enter commercial operation,” says a spokesman for the New York energy agency.

    Equinor and BP also have two projects in the state, and have asked officials to reconsider the rates they originally signed on for. The companies “have seen the estimated costs of our projects rise sharply,” said Teddy Muhlfelder, an executive at Equinor Renewables Americas, in a statement. The companies remain “strongly committed” to the projects, and are looking for a way forward, he added. The state is reviewing the request.

    By next year, Massachusetts residents will be receiving 800 megawatts worth of wind energy from the Martha’s Vineyard project, enough to power 400,000 homes or so. But developers of two other projects in the state that collectively were expected to add 2.4 gigawatts—three times as much as the Vineyard project—have attempted to pull out of their contracts. Commonwealth Wind, owned by a subsidiary of Iberdrola, just reached a deal with three utilities to terminate its contract and pay a $48 million fee. And developers of SouthCoast Wind, owned by Shell, EDP, and Engie, said last month that they’re planning to terminate their contract. In a statement, Rebecca Ullman, SouthCoast’s director of external affairs, said the company is still in discussions with utilities over the contracts and is “looking forward to future [offshore wind] procurements in New England.”

    Massachusetts just released a new draft request for proposals that could push the whole process back considerably, and allows for more inflation-related adjustments. Roy, the state legislator, said in an interview that he now expects Massachusetts’ major wind projects to come into service in 2031 or 2032, instead of in the late 2020s, and be “more costly.”

    State regulators and utilities have fought some proposals to pay wind developers more, but momentum is building for these contracts to be repriced or rebid. That gives the companies a better chance to make adequate returns—though Freshney anticipates asset impairments ahead as higher construction costs diminish their expected profits.

    Some companies are eyeing novel strategies to make wind projects pay off. BP CEO Bernard Looney said in an interview with Barron’s earlier this year that BP plans to juice returns by integrating the power its wind turbines produce into other segments of its business—essentially upselling the electrons into its hydrogen and electric-vehicle-charging businesses. “We will have a 10 gigawatt demand for electrons in our own charging infrastructure,” he said. Shell’s Sawan has outlined a similar strategy.

    But even with those potential projects, the public investment case for offshore wind now looks iffy. Orsted, the most direct way to bet on offshore wind, has already written down the value of one of its U.S. projects. The stock is up 25% from its October lows, but it’s too soon to signal an all-clear. The industry may be in the early stages of a bad-news cycle, with more impairments to come at various companies, Freshney says. Other issues loom, including protests about how the turbines impact whales.

    Eventually, hundreds of turbines are likely to be humming up and down the coasts, and in the Gulf of Mexico, too. They will represent a step forward in the fight against climate change. Paying for them will be anything but a breeze.

    Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com
  8. vanpuffelen 23 juli 2023 19:58
    quote:

    Arie Jan schreef op 23 juli 2023 19:44:

    Ik las dat er ma di wo geen buy backs zijn? Is het klaar of is dit voor de cijfers deze week? Kan het nergens vinden namelijk.
    "The company has entered into an arrangement with a single broker consisting of three irrevocable, nondiscretionary contracts, to enable the purchase of ordinary shares on both London market exchanges (the London Stock Exchange and/or on BATS and/or on Chi-X) (pursuant to two ‘London contracts’) and Netherlands exchanges (Euronext Amsterdam and/or on CBOE Europe DXE and/or on Turquoise Europe) (pursuant to one ‘Netherlands contract’) for a period up to and including July 21, 2023."

    www.shell.com/investors/information-f...
  14. forum rang 4 onsnieuwemeer@gmail.com 24 juli 2023 08:43
    Toch even gekeken wat de grootste overnames ooit waren.. AOL die Time Warner overnam (ik zat er indertijd midden in.. is overigens niet goed afgelopen) en Vodafone - Mannesheim (zegt me dan weer weinig). Alle grote overnames in de telco/content/access wereld. 300 miljard is de overnamesom in geld van vandaag.. Wat dat betreft zou het kunnen, maar het komt dus maar heel, heel sporadisch voor.
  17. PaulRD 24 juli 2023 10:42
    Ik verwacht deze week toch wel een behoorlijke dip om de volgende redenen:
    1) Cijfers gaan tegenvallen (olie en gasprijzen zijn behoorlijk gedaald)
    2) Nieuwe topman gaat alle mogelijke pijn direct nemen bij de presentatie van de cijfers
    3) Koers boven 28 houdt over het algmeen niet lang stand.
    4) Algemeen sentiment kan omslaan omdat AEX tegen de hoogste stand van het jaar staat.
    5) Ideeen om uit renawable te gaan zal Shell op termijn niet goed doen.
  19. [verwijderd] 24 juli 2023 11:04
    quote:

    PaulRD schreef op 24 juli 2023 10:42:

    Ik verwacht deze week toch wel een behoorlijke dip om de volgende redenen:
    1) Cijfers gaan tegenvallen (olie en gasprijzen zijn behoorlijk gedaald)
    2) Nieuwe topman gaat alle mogelijke pijn direct nemen bij de presentatie van de cijfers
    3) Koers boven 28 houdt over het algmeen niet lang stand.
    4) Algemeen sentiment kan omslaan omdat AEX tegen de hoogste stand van het jaar staat.
    5) Ideeen om uit renawable te gaan zal Shell op termijn niet goed doen.
    Je kan ook denken dat als de nieuwe topman nu al pijn neemt,het hierna beter gaat worden
  20. forum rang 9 Ron-tron system 24 juli 2023 11:06
    quote:

    PaulRD schreef op 24 juli 2023 10:42:

    Ik verwacht deze week toch wel een behoorlijke dip om de volgende redenen:
    1) Cijfers gaan tegenvallen (olie en gasprijzen zijn behoorlijk gedaald)
    2) Nieuwe topman gaat alle mogelijke pijn direct nemen bij de presentatie van de cijfers
    3) Koers boven 28 houdt over het algmeen niet lang stand.
    4) Algemeen sentiment kan omslaan omdat AEX tegen de hoogste stand van het jaar staat.
    5) Ideeen om uit renawable te gaan zal Shell op termijn niet goed doen.
    We hebben natuurlijk wel geen inzicht op langere termijn maar de ceo van shell heeft duidelijk gezegd dat hij enkel geïnteresseerd is in renawable als deze bewijst rendabel te zijn bv min 8% netto inkomsten op investeringen.
    Slim want of subsidies om groen te gaan uitlokken of wachten tot het rendabel is.
    Laat de anderen maar investeren en de kosten dragen,

    Europa gaat in een krimp op zijn economie maar ja Europa is maar een kleine speler dus de olieprijs gaat hier niet meteen op reageren.

24.109 Posts
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