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Aandeel Wereldhave Belgium BRU:WEHB.BL, BE0003724383

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
45,000   -0,100   (-0,22%) Dagrange 44,800 - 45,200 1.109   Gem. (3M) 1,4K

Forum Wereldhave Belgium geopend

497 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 ... 25 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. forum rang 7 HCohen 23 november 2021 08:59
    Wereldhave Belgium REIT: Not Only Waffles And Beer In The Belgium Retail Market
    Nov. 22, 2021 9:20 PM ET

    Summary
    The Belgium stock market has a developed REIT field with a lot of different types of REITs.
    Specifically, Wereldhave Belgium has a strong ~50% P/NAV discount and ~50% lower P/EPRA (FFO) multiple compared to peers.
    WEHB has a resilient portfolio of suburban properties, making 90% of total assets and 85% of rental income.

    Investment thesis
    Our investment recommendation is a BUY as WEHB can be a good growth story for the REITs portfolio because:

    WEHB has a considerable discount by a fundamental multiple P/NAV (~ 50% potential upside)

    At the same time, the stable cash flow of WEHB is valued only 11x P/FFO (EPRA) metric (vs. 24x industry average)

    Also, the future recovery of the Belgian office market gives an opportunity to catch a 9-10% EUR dividend yield in subsequent years

    Belgium Market Outlook
    Belgian economic growth is gradually bouncing back to pre-COVID levels. 10-year bonds are in the positive zone.

    Intro
    Belgium is well-known for its waffles and beer. Did you know that till the 1970s, Belgian pupils could buy light beer in bars without a passport? I did not either. With the silent envy, I am starting to examine the one new thing you have to know about Belgium – the local REITs market (one of the oldest in the world since 1995) and its tastiest waffle: Wereldhave Belgium (EBR:WEHB).

    Analysts from C&W also forecast a strong rent growth and office space demand in Antwerp and Brussel (basically, where WEHB's offices are located).

    According to the report, the retail market is still at full speed with a robust Q3. Indeed, 110,000 sqm of take-up has been recorded, setting the total for 2021 to an impressive 342,000 sqm despite the unprecedented economic climate. Six hundred eighty deals were closed since the start of the year, demonstrating retailers’ willingness to continue their expansion.

    Footfall in Flanders and Wallonia is around 80% of the pre-COVID levels – a good signal for the WEHB retail portfolio. According to the C&W MarketBeat retail report Q32021, footfall (the measurement of the number of people entering a shop or shopping mall) across regions is witnessing a positive recovery since the ease of containment measures in April 2021. However, the situation is different in Brussels and Wallonia / Flanders. Indeed, according to the latest figures available, footfall in Flanders and Wallonia is around 80% of the pre-COVID levels while footfall in Brussels is still 50% lower.

    Wereldhave Belgium Business Model
    Wereldhave Belgium is a public subsidiary company of the Dutch REIT - Wereldhave (AMS:WHA) (OTCPK:WRDEF) (owning ~ 65% stake), which previously had three core real estate businesses in Europe - in France, Netherlands and Belgium. However, In 2020 Wereldhave decided to phase out from France, sold 4 out of 6 French assets as of Q3 2021, and finished its divestment program in other two countries, focusing on ascending the internal efficiency of the business.

    Today Wereldhave Belgium is a Retail REIT focusing on shopping centers and retail parks in Belgium and Luxembourg (~89% of the portfolio) with a modest allocation to office space (~9% of the portfolio). In terms of geographical breakdown, it has a good diversification within the country with less than 20% share of each region.

    Firstly, let’s look at the public market to understand the WEHB share on the market.

    For this purpose, I have created a pie chart with NAV of top-12 Belgium REITs.

    As you can see, WEHB’s market share is relatively small, though it assumes there can be additional growth opportunities, while majors (with industrial portfolios) have the highest valuations.

    Secondly, 8 out of 12 REITs operate in more than two countries, while WEHB operates only in Belgium, which allows its team to focus on the local market.

    Thirdly, WEHB real estate portfolio. Office and Retail properties are primarily located in the South part of the country, with 85% of the rent from shopping centers and retail parks. To better understand the WEHB’s portfolio, you should know that Belgium has two separate regions in terms of everything. As I discuss Commercial Real Estate, Flanders and Wallonia have different rental rates, occupancy rates, infrastructure, etc.

    Key drivers in details
    Dividend rain
    Even though WEHB’s dividend policy was quite specific (management used “optional stock dividends” instead of cash),

    this REIT collected almost all rental income in 2020 and is on the good track in 2021. The stock is currently trading around 48.55 EUR, which means a 9-10% dividend yield. Thus, it should stay stable, not depending on the dilution (since cash should be effectively invested in redevelopment to increase rental income). At the same time, WEHB has a relatively low LTV ratio (around 30%).

    P/NAV~35% discount gives rational reasons for BUY
    NAV is a measure that provides a clear residual value of properties after deducting all liabilities that a company holds. Therefore, P/NAV (stock price to NAV per share) is one of the most valuable ratios to estimate a fair value of a REIT. However, I should note that NAV is different for investors in Europe and the US. Simply speaking, Europe has additional regulations in the reporting system for REITs called EPRA. Therefore, they have, for instance, their own EPRA Earnings and EPRA NAV. The most crucial difference is that properties are reevaluated every year and always have a market price. In other words, they don’t have D&A for the Real Estate in the usual way of US GAAP.

    EPRA Net Asset Value

    However, it is not so different. I can use the standard NAV metric and get possible future upside to the current property fair value. Generally speaking, NAV represents the net value of an entity and is calculated as the total value of the entity’s assets minus the total value of its liabilities. Based on the current real estate portfolio, I have got a potential 50% upside. Moreover, our waffle could be even taster with a future increase in rental income because of inflation and decreasing vacancy rates.

    By the way, my rough estimates of Implied Cap Rate is (~ 7.5%) and WACC (~ 1.4%) as of November 2021 gives a huge margin of Cap Rate Spread investing safety = 7.5% - 1.4% = 6.1%!

    P / EPRA (a.k.a. FFO) driver
    REIT shows resilient rental income during pandemic, and it gives additional reason to consider a purchase. I also checked P / NTM FFO metrics for REITs in Belgium. The equivalent for FFO in Europe is EPRA Earnings. EPRA Earnings is similar to NAREIT FFO (NAREIT FFO means net income (computed by U.S. GAAP) of a property, excluding gains (or losses) from sales of depreciable property and impairments of depreciable real estate assets, plus D&A, and after adjustments for unconsolidated partnerships and joint ventures). However, the measures are not the same – as EPRA Earnings has its basis in IFRS, and FFO is based on US GAAP. As a result, WEHB has a ~50% discount towards the average market P / NTM FFO of the Belgium REIT market.

    If I try to analyze only similar Retail and Mixed-use REITs in Belgium, then there is still a reasonable discount!

    Conclusion
    To sum up, I think that WEHB can be an excellent addition to a diversified portfolio of European REITs for a value investor due to its risk/reward profile and reasonable cheapness due to relatively low P/NAV and P/EPRA multiples, compared to other Belgium REITs. I am looking forward to seeing H2 2021 report, which may reveal two potential triggers for future share growth: a) rebounding of the occupancy of the office portfolio, and b) changes in dividend policy strategy.
  2. Kojo 4 januari 2022 17:34
    quote:

    bankwerker schreef op 3 januari 2022 13:07:

    [...]
    Gelukkig heb ik ze gehouden ??
    Ik deel uw mening. WEB verkoop ik niet, ook al kan ik momenteel een meerwaarde van goed 50% realiseren. Vooreerst omwille van het dividend. In tweede instantie omdat een mogelijke terugval beperkt is door de stevige bodem boven € 45. In derde instantie omdat de koers in 2022 nog verder zal herstellen tot een niveau tussen € 55 en € 60.
  3. [verwijderd] 12 januari 2022 13:43
    Volgens mij is er veel in het nieuws gekomen wat dit aandeel doet stijgen, alleen niet in de vorm van een rechtstreeks artikel. Je moet het er zelf uithalen :)

    De kranten stonden vol over al die Nederlanders die naar belgie kwamen om te shoppen omdat ze zelf een lockdown hebben. Dat zullen ze in hun center in Genk ook wel gemerkt hebben.
    Winkeliers spraken van veel hoger dan verwachte omzet.

    De prognose voor H2 was ook laag gehouden met covid onzekerheden en dat is toch veel beter verlopen dan H1 waarin er nog gedwongen sluitingen waren. Op zijn minst 4€ dividend moet toch lukken, dit samen met minder onzekerheden een goede reden om te kopen aan deze prijs.
  4. molenveld 12 januari 2022 18:46
    De winstprognose die WEHB zelf gaf in het Q3 rapport is €4,30 p/a, dwz nog €0,99 in Q4, dit lijkt zeker haalbaar (rampkwartaal Q2 2020 was 0,97, Q2 2021 0,98).

    4€ dividend zou dan een payout van 93% betekenen, dat is hoger dan gebruikelijk, maar ik verwacht niet dat men het dividend nogmaals zal laten dalen.

    Maar ook bij beter dan verwachte Q4 resultaten verwacht ik geen hoger dividend dan €4. Zelfs bij een resultaat van pakweg €4,50 a 4,70, zou dit een normale payout van 85-89% impliceren. Ik denk niet dat men op dit moment onnodige risico's zal nemen met vroegtijdige dividendverhogingen.

    Pas nadat zo goed als alle Covid-beperkingen opgeheven worden (wat het winkelen betreft toch) zullen we terug met dividendgroei aanknopen. Maar in tussentijd ben ik met €4 alvast heel tevreden. :-)
  5. DJ o Harry 14 januari 2022 10:22
    WERELDHAVE FINANCIAL CALENDAR

    10 Feb 2022 | Press Release Results FY 2021
    10 Mar 2022 | Publication Annual Report 2021
    14 Mar 2022 | Convocation Annual General Meeting of Shareholders
    22 Apr 2022 | Trading update Q1 2022
    25 Apr 2022 | Annual General Meeting of Shareholders

    27 Apr 2022 | Ex-dividend date
    28 Apr 2022 | Dividend record date
    3 May 2022 | Payment date dividend

    22 Jul 2022 | Press Release Results H1 2022
    27 Oct 2022 | Trading update Q3 2022
  6. forum rang 7 HCohen 30 januari 2022 12:26
    Wereldhave Belgium nieuws, WHB vangt bot bij raad van state

    Raad van State verwijst protest tegen eenrichtingsverkeer Overpoortstraat naar prullenmand
    www.hln.be/gent/raad-van-state-verwij...
    www.wereldhavebelgium.com/portfolio/o...
    GENT, De veranderingen die voor deze maand staan gepland in de Overpoortstraat, zullen er ook effectief komen. De vastgoedbeheerder Wereldhave, die het complex beheert waar Albert Heijn Overpoort in huist, was naar de Raad van State gestapt tegen de plannen, die volgens hen te weinig rekening houden met de bedrijven, maar ving bot.

    Sabine Van Damme 01-01-22, 12:18
    De plannen voor de Overpoortstraat zijn bekend gemaakt, en worden al in de zomer uitgevoerd. Enkel nog busverkeer in 1 richting, bredere voetpaden, terrassen en zelfs bomen. Maar dat ziet Wereldhave niet zitten. Zij beheren het gebouw waar onder meer de Albert Heijn in zit. En ze vrezen dat hun pand veel minder vlot bereikbaar zal zijn met de nieuwe regels. Dat maakt dat de leveringen voor de AH moeilijker zullen worden. De vrachtwagens zullen niet meer via de Heuveilpoort de straat in kunnen rijden, maar om moeten via de Kunstlaan. Ook de smallere rijweg baart hen zorgen.

    Wereldhave tekende protest aan tegen de plannen bij de Raad van State. Ze claimden dat de stad onzorgvuldig is geweest bij de opmaak van de plannen, en dat er te weinig rekening is gehouden met de bedrijven in de buurt. Er zou ook geen overleg geweest zijn met het Vlaams gewest, wegbeheerder van de stadsring R40. De Raad van State veegde dat protest echter van tafel. Zij stellen dat de stad de wet niet overtreedt met de plannen, over de inhoud van die plannen spreken ze zich niet uit.
  7. forum rang 7 HCohen 6 februari 2022 11:41
    www.wereldhavebelgium.com/nieuws/nieu...
    Corporate update
    18 January 2022, 06:00 PM CET
    Wereldhave Belgium NV heeft beslist haar Financiële Kalender voor 2022 licht aan te passen.

    De publicatie van het persbericht over de resultaten 2021 wordt vervroegd en zal op dinsdag 8 februari 2022 na beurssluiting (in plaats van woensdag 9 februari 2022 zoals oorspronkelijk aan de markt gecommuniceerd werd) plaatsvinden.

    Voor bijkomende informatie:

    Nicolas Beaussillon
    Chief Executive Officer
    Investors.relations@wereldhave.com
    +32 2 732 19 00
497 Posts
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