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Home  /   Forum   /   Euronav   /   Forum geopend voor Euronav

Aandeel CMB.TECH BRU:CMBT.BL, BE0003816338

Laatste koers (eur) Verschil Volume
11,600   +0,090   (+0,78%) Dagrange 11,600 - 11,600 1.973   Gem. (3M) 27,8K

Forum geopend voor Euronav

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19.441 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 531 532 533 534 535 ... 973 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  2. GiGa 18 mei 2020 11:42
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIV-h88EM6M&a...

    GUYS; "you don't see the forest for all the trees" (not sure if you have that expression in english, but you need to zoom out and see the bigger picture!)

    First; why is it that you can fix a 1 year TC for a VLCC for 75k when the spot is say 55k? Also, you can fix a 3 year TC for 45k. Why aren't tankers fixing when spot is going to collape? And why will charterers pay more than spot to fix a price when spot is going to collapse? Part of the answer is a risk premium (second wave, new cosco sanctions, continued over-supply etc), but both tanker companies and charterers expect the rates to be (way) higher than break-even for a long time (or, more likely, way higher for a short time and then collapse)

    Second; this will be very volatile. However, some tankers have "hedged" more than others (i.e fixed 1 and 3 years TCs) and some are fully on spot. Also, another way to calm your nerves is by having companies that have a higher payout-ratio (it doesn't matter too much of the PPS is down 75% if they've paid 50% in dividends - at least that's how I feel)

    Third; this is NOT about contango, this is about something way bigger and the current super-contango is just a bonus that might have accelerated the next super-cycle! Take a look at the rates in Q4. Q4&Q1 are the good seasons, but not THAT good. Something happened in Q4 (well, before, but it started to materialize in Q4) and the spikes from the Cosco-sanctions shows just how tight the tanker-market is (was)

    This is a three-phased LONG term (for tankers! jikes) investment;
    1) super-contango and floating storage
    2) the house of pain
    3) the IMO2020/IMO2030-squeeze super-cycle

    We're in phase 1 with most tankers currently at PE of 2,5 from Q1 and Q2 alone (and some of them pay 75-100% of net profits in dividend), but this is not where the big gains will be (read on).

    Analyst estimates are a total collapse of rates in Q3&Q4, but I believe that will happen later (maybe Q4, but likely 2021). We still have a over-supply, and we still need to work of the floating storages, fixed all the chaos and congestion that all this has caused, and as soon as rates start to go down to break-even then tankers will leave the fleet for those post-poned drydocks. Phase 2 will be ugly, but I don't know when it will happen, and I don't know for how long. However, I have chosen to go all in BEFORE phase 2. Why? Well, besides not knowing how low the shareprices will fall, I expect most of my companies to have earnings for FY2020 so that the current PPS (my cost-basis is higher) equals a PE of 1,5. Also I can easily see scenarios where this actually turns out to be a PE of sub 1 (call it a free option of a second wave or something).

    Phase three is where it really gets interesting. Here's the thesis I invested in pre-coronoa;
    1) An old VLCC uses ca 90 tons of fuel pr day vs 45 tons for a new one
    2) IMO2020 requires ships to either use expensive low-sulphur fuel (VLSFO), or have expensive scrubbers (which allows the tanker to use cheap high-sulphur fuel, HSFO)
    3) Fuel-cost (pre-corona that is, things has changed, at least short-term) for a 2002 ship without scrubber is 90x436 pr day, and for a new ship with scrubber it is 45x310. I.e a difference of 25 290$ pr day. Remember the number John (or is it Jon?) stated about VLCC-rates? Wasn't that 25k? huh How can that be? Well, charterers pay for the fuel cost on to of the actual rate (well, actually they compensate from a standard fuel-rate, but the effect is the same). This means that old ships without scrubbers will have to undercut new ships with scrubbers a massive 25k per day, which happens to be break-even (ish) for the new ship! I invested pre-corona in the latter, because the difference was so big that it would ensure a higher profit than for a old vessel [note that the spread for the fuel increased a lot, before it collapsed, but we still have some effect from the extra fuel spent pr day, although the fuel cost have come down]
    4) This is all well and good in a bull-market; there is room for the old ladies to earn some money, and for the new ladies to earn a lot of money, but what happens when the 15+ year old ladies who barely makes money needs to go through an expensive survey ? The owner knows that she barely makes money, and that she will have to undertake a new expensive survey in 30 months - will the extra investment repay itself, or should the owner scrap her? (in addition there is a requirement for a the ballast water treatment system coming up)
    5) Ca 25% of the world fleet is 15+ years
    6) The rates in Q4 increased primarily because of tankers beeing tanken of the market for retrofitting scrubbers, showing how tight the market was (NB! I don't expect oil consumption to be as high post-corona, so we will not have as tight a market anymore)
    7) Remember phase 2 above? Some analysts predicts rates of 8-11k (!) for Q3 and Q4 (too early IMO, and maybe too low rates as well, IDK). If a modern scrubber-outfitted VLCC get rates of 10k, then an old lady will not even get to cover running costs, she will only be covered part of the fuel cost... This should give a cap on the rates I believe, and also a lot of scrapping (who's going to pay for expensive surveys every 30 month only to not use the ship?)
    8) After some scrapping we'll have a balanced fleet (pushing rates higher so that some old ladies earn some money), but we'll still have old ladies leave the fleet (the surveys will still be too expensive)
    9) At the same time, oil consumption will increase (maybe this will be magnified from Covid)
    10) The orderbook is at historical [edit:] lows
    11) And - for anyone who's bothered to read this far - here is the beauty, the IMO2020/2030-squeeze; remember that IMO2020 put rules of sulphur, and how this drastically changed the economics of the fleet? Well, there will be new rules in place from 2030. What kind of rules? Don't know, haven't been settled yet, but this time it is CO2 and IMO2020 has enourmous consequences for those ships that were orderes 5-20 years ago. So, Mr Shipowner; do you want to order an VLCC now, have it delivered in 18-24 months (or more if a second wave delays), into a possible bear-market, only to have 8 (instead of 15-20) years of earnings before you might need to do massive investments? (the like of the scrubbers) Or, are you going to settle with the fleet you have, cash in from a bull-market, and wait till there are more clarification regarding what the rules will be so that you can order a ship that does NOT need to have massive new investments?
  3. GiGa 18 mei 2020 11:44
    Gentlepeople; after this phase with the current crazy rates, on the other side of the coming storm, I believe that we'll have a super-cycle that MIGHT (or might not be) something that we've never seen in shipping before (NB! there is ONE extreme scenario that might destroy or delay this, I'll leave it at the very end). A bull-market that might both have higher sustained rates than before (demand and supply folks) and that might be longer than before (we will have some ships being ordered going forward, but I don't think we'll see the big waves coming until there is clarifications about IMO2030 - and then the first wave will come after 18-24 months, which might not be large enough to match the actual demand)

    PS. I currently have no exit strategy. I will delever some through dividends (and probably sell some stocks if the prices go very high in phase 1), but I'm in this one for phase 3. One of the few times in history one can be a long-time investor in tankers (if you can handle the volatility that will come)

    NB! Please do NOT invest in ONE tanker company, do a basket approach (unless you know more than me) - especially if you own NAT.

    PS: Jo(h)n, if you're reading this; There is one possible bear-scenario here: a deep and long DEpression. If the oil consumption droppes MORE than those 15+ ladies, then we could see a prolongued bear-marked. However, the Great REcession is only a blip. Maybe you could look into how much oil consumption could drop if the world enters a new depression? (and how many tankers we need to get rid of to compensate?)
  10. Vavli 18 mei 2020 14:00
    quote:

    objectief schreef op 18 mei 2020 11:48:

    Giga, wil je svp. die grote teksten niet copy pasten. Elke belegger met interesse kan ze zelf opzoeken.
    Niet akkoord. Laat iedereen maar posten wat hij of zij belangrijk vind. Je moet niet alles lezen. Als je een tekst te lang vindt, kan je die toch negeren?
  11. forum rang 4 Yes we can 18 mei 2020 15:02
    quote:

    Vavli schreef op 18 mei 2020 14:00:

    [...]

    Niet akkoord. Laat iedereen maar posten wat hij of zij belangrijk vind. Je moet niet alles lezen. Als je een tekst te lang vindt, kan je die toch negeren?
    Hhhmmm, is wel een beetje vervelend bij doorscrollen. Vooral als dan een antwoord wordt gegeven waar het originele bericht voluit nog eens opnieuw boven het antwoord staat.
  12. forum rang 8 objectief 18 mei 2020 15:09
    quote:

    Vavli schreef op 18 mei 2020 14:00:

    [...]

    Niet akkoord. Laat iedereen maar posten wat hij of zij belangrijk vind. Je moet niet alles lezen. Als je een tekst te lang vindt, kan je die toch negeren?
    Hoeft ook niet; maar is het gewoon verboden (copy rights) hele artikelen van anderen te plaatsen en voor de lezer zeer vervelend al die details die geen invloed hebben op de koers.
  13. [verwijderd] 18 mei 2020 15:30
    quote:

    objectief schreef op 18 mei 2020 15:09:

    [...]

    Hoeft ook niet; maar is het gewoon verboden (copy rights) hele artikelen van anderen te plaatsen en voor de lezer zeer vervelend al die details die geen invloed hebben op de koers.
    Misschien moet je minder wakker liggen van de koers en zo veel mogelijk proberen bij te leren van het bedrijf en de business zelf. Slaap je trouwens beter van.
  15. [verwijderd] 18 mei 2020 15:46
    quote:

    Thole schreef op 18 mei 2020 15:42:

    Wat er ook gebeurt van 9u tot 15u30, die Amerikanen gooien het toch altijd helemaal overhoop precies... Alsof de wereld verandert op het moment dat daar de beurs open gaat.
    Dat is niet normaal meer ! Een maat van mij zegt dat daar koersmanipulatie achter zit !
  20. Hansbeurs 18 mei 2020 16:16
    Hoe je het ook wendt of keert, het blijft zeer frustrerend om te zien hoe dit aandeel op en neer gestuurd wordt, en dan met name “neer”. Ik heb inmiddels opgegeven om logische verklaringen voor dit verschijnsel te bedenken..... voor mij zijn die er niet en moeten we gewoon berusten in de realiteit. Ik geloof zeker dat het aandeel ondergewaardeerd is, maar heb geen idee wanneer de koers naar een normaal niveau gaat geraken
19.441 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 531 532 533 534 535 ... 973 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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