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Home  /   Forum   /   Arrowhead Research   /   Forum Arrowhead Research geopend

Aandeel Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals OTC:ARWR.Q, US04280A1007

Vertraagde koers (usd) Verschil Volume
19,465   -0,035   (-0,18%) Dagrange 19,180 - 20,210 4.011.133   Gem. (3M) 1,4M

Forum Arrowhead Research geopend

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8.654 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 ... 433 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  2. forum rang 6 4finance 21 januari 2020 19:20
    quote:

    hosternokke schreef op 21 januari 2020 18:12:

    [...]
    We zitten op ca. -35% vanaf de high. Gap gesloten. Tijd om te kopen.

    Wel, zo werkt het bij USA bio's niet. Het kan heel stijgen weken lang en daarna ook weer heel hard dalen zonder aanleiding. Een andere deel in de USA wordt nu wakker. Ben benieuwd wat de stand einde van de dag is. Let wel, het daalt al 2 maanden.

  3. forum rang 5 Hulskof 21 januari 2020 19:24
    quote:

    4finance schreef op 21 januari 2020 19:20:

    [...]

    Wel, zo werkt het bij USA bio's niet. Het kan heel stijgen weken lang en daarna ook weer heel hard dalen zonder aanleiding. Een andere deel in de USA wordt nu wakker. Ben benieuwd wat de stand einde van de dag is. Let wel, het daalt al 2 maanden.

    Vind je dan dat je eigenlijk te vroeg hebt gekocht? Want je bent onlangs toch ingestapt? Achteraf is het altijd makkelijk praten natuurlijk. Als het nu nog eens 15 procent doorzakt, voel ik me mogelijk ook bekocht. Maar alleen omdat ik dan met een hoop meer stukjes had kunnen zitten dan nu. ;-)
  4. forum rang 4 RW1963 21 januari 2020 19:29
    quote:

    RW1963 schreef op 14 januari 2020 09:25:

    Mensen bedankt voor jullie opbeurende berichten ;-)
    Een week geleden schreef ik bovenstaande.
    Ook nu lees ik weer positieve berichten.
    En Tom3 was eens wel heel erg positief.
    Maar de realiteit is wel dat we in plm. 2 maanden toch al weer zo'n $ 25,- gezakt zijn. Daar wordt je niet vrolijk van. Het is voor mij moeilijk optimistisch te blijven.
    Ik hou ze overigens nog steeds vast !
  5. mvdln 21 januari 2020 19:37
    twitter.com/MarkC53916729/status/1219...

    Just saw the whole Leerink quote and he has it backwards. "The regulatory path for lead asset ARO-AAT remains uncertain, and competitor data from Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) is a threat to the program, SVB Leerink said." $ARWR is a threat to $VRTX w/inhaled ENAC for CF
  7. forum rang 6 4finance 21 januari 2020 19:41
    quote:

    Hulskof schreef op 21 januari 2020 19:24:

    [...]

    Vind je dan dat je eigenlijk te vroeg hebt gekocht? Want je bent onlangs toch ingestapt? Achteraf is het altijd makkelijk praten natuurlijk. Als het nu nog eens 15 procent doorzakt, voel ik me mogelijk ook bekocht. Maar alleen omdat ik dan met een hoop meer stukjes had kunnen zitten dan nu. ;-)
    Ik heb ze duidelijk te duur gekocht $56,15. Bij 1K stuks aandelen is dat een behoorlijk verschil ;-)
    Heb het voornemen om bij te kopen, maar kijk de kat nog even uit de boom. Het zakt wel erg hard.
  8. mvdln 21 januari 2020 19:53
    Shares of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) crashed to a two-month low Tuesday after an analyst initiated overage of ARWR stock with an underperform rating.

    SVB Leerink analyst Mani Foroohar expects competitive headwinds to batter ARWR stock over the next year. Further, Big Pharma rivals are likely to launch cardiovascular and lipid drugs with massive sales forces before Arrowhead reaches the market, he said.

    "We see the next 12 months as far more challenging than the past two years as Arrowhead faces sky-high expectations in the face of increasingly clear competitive headwinds," he said in a note to clients. Foroohar initiated coverage with an ARWR stock price target of 32.

    In morning trading on the stock market today, ARWR stock tumbled 13.3%, near 48.90, in moderate volume.
    IBD Newsletters
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    ARWR Stock Tumbles On Bearish Report

    Biotech company Arrowhead is working on a technology that interferes in ribonucleic acid, or RNA. RNA acts as a messenger, carrying instructions from the DNA that control protein creation. The technology is often called RNAi.

    Arrowhead's lead drug is called ARO-AAT. If approved, it would treat alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, a genetic condition that can cause lung and liver problems. It's important to note that Arrowhead's drug is the furthest along among RNAi-focused companies.

    But Foroohar sees ARWR stock challenged by the likes of Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX). Vertex is further behind Arrowhead in developing a treatment for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. But Vertex's drug could improve liver and lung disease "with the convenience of a pill," he said.

    "An update on the first of several Vertex (drugs called) correctors is expected in 2020 and represents a major risk catalyst to our — and Street — ARO-AAT estimates," he said.
    Rivaling Big Pharma In Cardio Diseases

    A number of assets in Arrowhead's pipeline focus on cardiovascular and lipid disorders. But the biotech company is far from the only player in this space.

    Arrowhead's targets are genetically validated. But the biotech company is going up against larger Big Pharma stalwarts in these disorders, Foroohar said.

    This suggests "the orphan pricing necessary for Arrowhead to capture value from these assets may not be realizable, as launching these drugs against lower-priced competitors with broad labels, robust datasets and sizable sales forces is outside Arrowhead's core competency," he said.
    ARWR Stock Benefits From RNAi Deal

    Further, ARWR stock benefits from an RNAi partnership with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in hepatitis B. But even that can't save ARWR stock, Foroohar said. He also noted investors have baked a substantial acquisition premium into shares.

    "A partnering transaction for key Arrowhead pipeline assets or strong data from Vertex in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency or competitors in cardio-metabolic programs could flatten this premium," Foroohar said.

    Shares of Arrowhead have high ratings, according to Investor's Business Daily's standards. The biotech company has a Composite Rating of 98 out of a best-possible 99. This puts ARWR stock in the top 2% of all stocks in terms of key growth metrics.

    Arrowhead stock also has a top-notch Relative Strength Rating of 99, putting ARWR stock in the top 1% of all stocks in terms of 12-month performance.
  9. Missolapola 21 januari 2020 19:56
    Dit hoort er echt allemaal bij, en het doet mij eigenlijk niks.
    Er zijn 2 fondsen waar ik een grenzeloos vertrouwen in heb, deze en GLPG natuurlijk ;-)
    GLPG staat een stuk verder in z’n maturiteit maar ARWR zal het zeker ook gaan maken.
    Dus niet teveel aandacht besteden aan deze waan van de dag.
    Het komt goed, zonder twijfel.
  11. forum rang 6 Tom3 21 januari 2020 20:33
    quote:

    4finance schreef op 21 januari 2020 19:41:

    [...]

    Ik heb ze duidelijk te duur gekocht $56,15. Bij 1K stuks aandelen is dat een behoorlijk verschil ;-)
    Heb het voornemen om bij te kopen, maar kijk de kat nog even uit de boom. Het zakt wel erg hard.

    Heb net mijn belang met 5% uitgebreid rond de $47,80. De actie van Leerink lijkt sterk op de downgrade op 30 november 2019 door Cantor Fitzgerald. De koers zakte die dag met $ 10. Over dik een jaar zullen deze schommelingen wel uitdoven, bij collega Alnylam is vandaag dus niets aan de hand. Dicerna, Fate, Miragen en Affimed gaan wel door het putje.

    Voor de lange termijn belegger denk ik dat het allemaal ruis is. Die Leerink analist met haar $ 30+ koersdoel is onrealistisch pessimistisch nu de professionals net voor $ 58 hebben ingekocht.
  12. forum rang 5 Hulskof 21 januari 2020 20:49
    Doet mij ook denken aan het beruchte Kempenrapport over Pharming vorig jaar. Dat zorgde voor zoveel paniek bij de (vooral particuliere) beleggers dat de koers een enorme smak maakte. Het duurde wel even eer die hersteld was, maar er waren bij Pharming dan ook geen verdere triggers toen.
  13. forum rang 6 Tom3 21 januari 2020 23:12
    En Pharming sloot vandaag op Euro 1,45. Het koersdoel ad Euro 0,40 van Kempen uit juli 2019 is overigens nog steeds niet herzien. Stifel Nicolaus heeft 6 dagen geleden haar koersdoel verhoogd van Euro 1,60 naar Euro 2,0. Dit heeft klanten van Kempen dus veel geld gekost, maar kennelijk is dat niet zo belangrijk.

    Tenthoff, met ranking #322 -Foroohar van Leerink bekleed plaats #1.919- van 5.855 (Tipranks) analisten, heeft op 8 december het koersdoel nog verhoogd van $ 72 naar $ 80. Heeft die eerste iets finaal over het hoofd gezien??
  14. forum rang 6 Tom3 22 januari 2020 00:26
    Het commentaar van Holden van 26 minuten geleden op Yahoo:

    For all you people who are scared off by this reach down between your legs and give you lil' guys a squeeze to be sure they are all still in the right place.

    Leerink is exclusively a healthcare shop. So when they come out with a sell people listen to them. But then you have to step back and look at the full picture. Who was not on the cover of their last deal? Leerink. Who has made a big bet on and been covering Vertex for a number of years? What is Vertex's big bet to get out of the CF exclusivity space? Vertex. Who just launched a p2 A1AT study? Vertex.

    "Safety profile and regulatory path for lead asset ARO-AAT (alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency) remains uncertain, and competitor data from VRTX (MP) is an existential threat to the program." Hmmm ARWR is in a pivotal study. VRTX just launched a non-AD p2 study. Who's regulatory path seems more clear? Why has VRTX not applied for a Superiority Finding to obtain Orphan drug designation? If they have applied, why hasn't one been granted?

    "Development of the cardiovascular and lipid pipeline is behind Big Pharma competitors which are likely to launch lower-priced agents with broad labels, robust data, and sizeable sales forces before ARWR reaches the market." Really? Which BP candidates are ahead of ARWR for ANG3 and APOC3, two first-in-human indications? Funny he doesn't name them.

    "JNJ can’t save the day at these valuations...
    The hepatitis B virus (HBV) program (along with other targets), partnered with JNJ, offers non-dilutive milestones and royalties for ARWR, but is more than fully valued at current levels." I don't see a a strategic options analysis that could legitimately lead one to that conclusion.

    Small molecules often generate off-target toxicity. And yet this analyst has formed a conclusion that ARWR will encounter lung problems when the safety data show exactly the opposite.

    This is a Classic situation where and analyst has been left of the cover of a deal and is now looking for ways to beat up the company. Why didn't he put a sell on the stock at $73? Because his bankers wouldn't let him as the deal was still pending. Now that the deal has been priced he is free to beat up the company which is in direct competition with his big name, VRTX. This negative report was fed to him by VRTX IR and a few of Leerink's hedge fund clients. Hence the total lack of specificity.

    And for all you clowns who think this somehow changes ARWR's M&A situation, why would you think that. They didn't try to sell at a premium to $73. Why would they now try to w try to sell at $47? What they are going to do is hit the gas on fundamentals, to the extent they are not running flat out on that front.

    I believe we are 30 days or so from Hif2 receiving regulatory clearance. And we are inside of 60 days from filing ENaC IND. Perhaps someone is feeling competitive pressure and is attacking the would-be competition?
  16. forum rang 6 Tom3 22 januari 2020 08:58
    Het antwoord van Bioboyscout op Yahoo is ook nuttig om gelezen te worden:

    I received many emails today for obvious reasons. I wish I could provide more color on the price action, unfortunately I'm in the same boat as the rest of you. I think Holden did a great job explaining the problems with Leerink's valuation arguments and I believe that there's a lack of adequate research on Leerink's end.

    First off, Leerink's valuation of AMG 890 is greatly lowered because they assume that a good percentage of the lp(a) patient population can be treated by statins. This tells me that they don't know what lp(a) is about. It is a fact that statins do NOT reduce lp(a) at all, which is why it's such a desired drug, and pcsk9 just does not lower lp(a) enough, as doctors are looking for a deeper knock down. Secondly, Leerink believes that the knockdown of the AAT protein could exacerbate AATD lung disease - I find that statement to be without merit and it further shows how little they know about A1AT and how Arrowhead's drug works in the liver only and not in the lungs. Third, they apply a 0% terminal growth rate in their valuation calculation, the standard terminal growth rate is typically 2% or 3%, and this has a significant impact on the valuation in the negative direction - this should not be overlooked.

    The valuation I have is based on the research I did on Arrowhead's drug pipeline and I purposely disclose exactly how I get those numbers in a calculator so that you can adjust those numbers the best way you see fit. So feel free to run the numbers the way you think it should be.

    A good number of analysts now agree with my price target, and it looks like Leerink is the outlier (kind of like how I was the outlier back in August). If you look at Arrowhead's history, when Cantor downgraded, the stock price dipped for a couple days and then not only fully recovered, but it then went on a historic run. I would also point out that as time goes on and no negative news comes to light, the stock price should rise, as Arrowhead is advancing not only their current drugs, but it's also introducing more new drugs into the clinic. With that said, the price is obviously dictated by what the market bears. I think Leerink will have a similar impact as Cantor did. If you purchased my report, you saw my notes from my latest meeting with management, and I think that's a good guide. Would love to hear what everyone else thinks, so please feel free to share your thoughts and analysis.
  18. forum rang 6 Tom3 22 januari 2020 10:15
    quote:

    Hulskof schreef op 21 januari 2020 20:49:

    Doet mij ook denken aan het beruchte Kempenrapport over Pharming vorig jaar. Dat zorgde voor zoveel paniek bij de (vooral particuliere) beleggers dat de koers een enorme smak maakte. Het duurde wel even eer die hersteld was, maar er waren bij Pharming dan ook geen verdere triggers toen.
    Bij Arrowhead zijn inderdaad veel meer triggers. Dirk H.is wat dat betreft wel een baken (nadat hij eerder de run-up helemaal gemist heeft).
  19. forum rang 6 Tom3 22 januari 2020 10:35
    quote:

    mvdln schreef op 21 januari 2020 19:37:

    twitter.com/MarkC53916729/status/1219...

    Just saw the whole Leerink quote and he has it backwards. "The regulatory path for lead asset ARO-AAT remains uncertain, and competitor data from Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) is a threat to the program, SVB Leerink said." $ARWR is a threat to $VRTX w/inhaled ENAC for CF
    AB, bijgaand artikel aangehaald in bovenvermelde tweet zegt meer dan genoeg:

    www.biopharmadive.com/news/vertex-hit...
  20. forum rang 6 Tom3 22 januari 2020 10:37
    Hier de volledige tekst van genoemd artikel:

    Vertex hits a biomarker bump on road to new drug
    Credit: Ryan McKnight, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.
    AUTHOR
    Jacob Bell@realjacobbell
    PUBLISHED Sept. 17, 2019

    Vertex may have misjudged the data that regulators will want to see before approving one of the company's most prized pipeline drugs.
    On Monday, the Food and Drug Administration held a workshop on developing medicines for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, a genetic disorder where lack of a protein called AAT causes lung and liver damage. Vertex aims to treat the disorder with VX-814, an experimental therapy that should yield Phase 2 proof-of-concept results by next year.
    Older treatments for the disease gained approval based on how much AAT was in patients' plasma. Vertex has said VX-814 could be initially cleared for market based on that measure, yet equity analysts who covered Wednesday's workshop aren't so sure. They now believe the FDA will be looking for functional data like improved liver and lung health, which could make a pivotal trial for Vertex's drug "larger and longer than anticipated," according to Geoffrey Porges of SVB Leerink.
    Dive Insight:
    Investors have pushed Vertex about what diseases it will target beyond cystic fibrosis. On the company's second quarter earnings call, executives were quick to tout the positive effect VX-814 showed in preclinical testing, and how the drug was quickly advancing into Phase 2.

    R&D chief Reshma Kewalramani, who is poised to be Vertex's new CEO, said the mid-stage study would be of "very reasonable" size and duration because its main goal revolves around AAT levels and activity. Yet that data may not be enough for regulators.

    Slides from the meeting cited by Porges show that the FDA wants future AAT deficiency clinical trials to show "substantial evidence of clinical effectiveness." To do so, the drug in question should demonstrate a positive trend on endpoints like FEV1, an indicator of lung health that measures how much air a person can breathe out in one second.

    Porges argues that such endpoints present a challenge to Vertex and other AAT deficiency drugmakers, since few patients are diagnosed with the disease and, presumably, only a fraction of them would be enrolled in clinical trials.

    A functional endpoint rather than a biomarker endpoint could extend a pivotal study of VX-814 from several months in duration to several years by Porges' estimates. It would also "significantly increase the patient sample required, as the pre-test assumptions and variability would be less well-known than for a standard assay of serum AAT levels."

    While data requirements may become tougher, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee pointed out potential bright spots. The FDA, he noted, will consider the "totality of data" when making approval decisions. It might also allow investigators to use a larger p-value when evaluating the statistical significance of a drug's effect, he said.

    The FDA hasn't yet published any guidance to drugmakers on development of drugs for AAT deficiency, but Porges expects that to change soon. Whether or not biomarker endpoints are considered should go some ways to determining how long Vertex's road to a new drug might take.
8.654 Posts
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