Ontvang nu dagelijks onze kooptips!

word abonnee
IEX 25 jaar desktop iconMarkt Monitor

Perpetuals, Steepeners« Terug naar discussie overzicht

POPSM

63 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. Hoover 27 mei 2017 10:04
    Fitch Downgrades Popular's IDR to 'B'; Puts on Rating Watch Negative
    (The following statement was released by the rating agency) BARCELONA/LONDON, May 19 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has downgraded Banco Popular Espanol S.A.'s (Popular) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B' and Viability Rating (VR) to 'b' and placed them on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) following the deterioration of the bank's capital metrics in 1Q17. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary. The downgrade of Popular's ratings reflects its deteriorated capital position from already weak levels and Fitch's opinion that there is increased risk about the bank's ability to execute a material remedial action to restore its solvency and accelerate the reduction of problem assets. At end-March 2017 Popular's fully loaded common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was a very low 7.3%, having deteriorated from the 8.2% reported at end-2016. The RWN reflects further downside risks in the absence of a remedial action in the short term, which would leave the bank with limited capital buffers over regulatory requirements, reduce its flexibility to divest problem assets without jeopardising solvency and impact investor and customer confidence, ultimately weakening its funding and liquidity profile. KEY RATING DRIVERS IDRS, VR AND SENIOR DEBT Popular's ratings are driven by very weak asset quality metrics undermined by the bank's large problematic exposure to real estate developers and thin capital buffers relative to peers. In addition, they reflect our view of the difficulties the new senior management team has encountered in executing material remedial actions soon after its appointment. Impairment charges remained high in 1Q17 and translated into a net loss of EUR137 million in the quarter. This contributed to the weakening of the capital ratios, also dented by the identified shortfalls in impairment reserves, adjustments required by the auditors and capital deductions related to the financing of shares, as announced by the bank on 3 April 2017. Capital encumbrance by unreserved problem assets increased to a high 4.2x fully loaded CET1. The bank currently meets its regulatory capital requirements, but we believe its solvency is highly vulnerable to further adverse events. Popular's asset quality is the weakest among Fitch-rated Spanish banks. The stock of problem assets (non-performing loans (NPLs) and net foreclosed assets) improved only modestly in 1Q17 and still accounted for a very high 27% of gross loans and foreclosures at end-March 2017. The reserve coverage for problem assets improved marginally but remains slightly below domestic peers at around 47%. We understand that the new senior management team has the mandate to restore the bank's capital position and implement a credible strategy to work out the bank's large problem assets in the short term. In April the bank publicly announced two possible actions: a capital increase or a corporate transaction. However, it is still uncertain which strategy the bank will execute and the timeframe for completion. In our view, delaying the decision or its execution increases the risk of a further deterioration in Popular's credit fundamentals. Popular's franchise and liquidity buffers are particularly sensitive to customer and investor sentiments. The bank's funding profile is underpinned by its retail deposit base, which proved stable during the first three months of 2017. At end-March 2017 available liquidity buffers were acceptable in light of upcoming wholesale debt maturities. The 'RR4' Recovery Rating reflects average recovery assumptions for senior debt. SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR Popular's Support Rating (SR) of '5' and Support Rating Floor (SRF) of 'No Floor' reflect Fitch's belief that senior creditors can no longer rely on receiving full extraordinary support from the sovereign in the event that the bank becomes non-viable. The EU's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive and the Single Resolution Mechanism for eurozone banks provide a framework for resolving banks that is likely to require senior creditors participating in losses, if necessary, instead of or ahead of a bank receiving sovereign support. SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES Popular's subordinated (lower Tier 2) debt issues are rated one notch below the bank's VR to reflect the below-average loss severity of this type of debt compared with average recoveries. Popular's preferred stock and perpetual Tier 1 convertible notes are rated three notches below the bank's VR to reflect the higher loss severity risk of these securities (two notches) compared with average recoveries as well as moderate incremental risk of non-performance relative to its VR (one notch). RATING SENSITIVITIES IDRS, VR AND SENIOR DEBT Fitch expects to resolve the RWN on Popular's ratings upon the announcement of a firm strategy or within the next six months if the bank's credit fundamentals deteriorate further. We will downgrade Popular's ratings if the bank does not take the necessary steps to strengthen capitalisation and enable a faster reduction of problem assets. Fitch anticipates that in the absence of a decisive strategy to restore capital ratios in the short term, Popular will be highly vulnerable to even modest shocks on asset quality or further adjustments that could jeopardise its solvency. At the same time, the risk of customer sentiment deterioration could increase and ultimately erode Popular's franchise and destabilise its customer deposit base. Conversely, Fitch will remove the RWN and affirm the ratings if the bank takes remedial actions that result in a material improvement of capitalisation and asset quality. The ratings do not factor in the possibility of a corporate transaction including the acquisition of Popular by another financial institution. If such a transaction was to materialise Fitch would assess the rating implications for Popular. SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR An upgrade of the SR and upward revision of the SRF would be contingent on a positive change in the sovereign's propensity to support its banks. This is highly unlikely, in Fitch's view. SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES The ratings of the instruments are primarily sensitive to a change in the bank's VR, which drive the ratings, but also to a change in Fitch's assessment of the probability of their non-performance relative to the risk captured in the bank's VR. The rating actions are as follows: Banco Popular Espanol S.A.: Long-Term IDR: downgraded to 'B' from 'B+', placed on RWN Short-Term IDR: 'B', placed on RWN Viability Rating: downgraded to 'b' from 'b+', placed on RWN Support Rating: affirmed at '5' Support Rating Floor: affirmed at 'No Floor' Long-term senior unsecured debt programme: downgraded to 'B'/RR4 from 'B+/RR4', placed on RWN Short-term senior unsecured debt programme and commercial paper: 'B', placed on RWN Subordinated lower Tier 2 debt: downgraded to 'B-'/RR5 from 'B'/RR5, placed on RWN Perpetual Tier 1 convertible notes: downgraded to 'CC'/RR6 from 'CCC'/RR6 BPE Financiaciones S.A.: Long-term senior unsecured debt and debt programme (guaranteed by Popular): downgraded to 'B'/RR4 from 'B+/RR4', placed on RWN Short-term senior unsecured debt programme (guaranteed by Popular): 'B', placed on RWN Popular Capital, S.A.: Preferred Stocks: downgraded to ''CC'/RR6 from CCC'/RR6
  2. leisele 27 mei 2017 15:30
    www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2017-...

    The buyers of the Popular estimates about hidden losses of more than 3,000 million

    The first estimates carried out by Santander, Bankia, BBVA, Caixabank and Sabadell have confirmed the omens about the state of the balance sheet of the financial entity

    AUTHOR
    AGUSTÍN FRAMEWORK
    Contact the author
    amarco13
    TAGS
    NEWS FOR BANCO POPULAREMILIO SARACHO BANCO POPULARJP MORGANLAZARDPROVISIONSFINANCIAL SECTOR
    READING TIME4 min
    21.05.2017 – 05:00 pm
    Banks that have analyzed the documentation provided by JP Morgan and Lazard to discuss the possible purchase of the Popular Bank have already taken their first conclusions. The first carried out by the departments of risk of Santander, Bankia, BBVA, Caixabank and Sabadell is that the entity chaired by Emilio Saracho has hidden losses due to an inadequate classification of the credits of at least 3,000 million euros, which has raised doubts about the real value of the financial group and its capital needs.
    According to sources from up to four potential buyers, Popular, you should make immediate provisions for this amount. The entity, on this point, has declined to make any comment, although it is a public that is carrying out a revaluation of its real estate assets to know if they are good-valued in its balance sheet or if they are in the books overrated. The results of this exercise will be crucial to measure the status of the bank's balance sheet.

    Banco Santander hires Citi to purchase Banco Popular
    AGUSTÍN FRAMEWORK
    Ana Botín has been placed in the hands of the us investment bank to develop a formal proposal and to defend the operation with its institutional shareholders
    From Popular to ensure that this new pricing is the usual that is done every year, just like any other financial entity. But sources within the bank recognize that, obviously, this new analysis is going to conclude that they are necessary new provisions for the risk related to operations with the sector of the brick. The analysts assume that this internal review will result in some needs of short-term capital of between 3,000 and 4,000 million.
    Banks that have analyzed the documentation –80 operations issues and other 120 chosen by each buyer randomly– go beyond if they take into account the so-called expected losses. What also concerns them is that that range, between 60 and 70% corresponds to loans previously in arrears that have to be gifted in the next twelve months. Popular already made a sanitation extraordinary, when recognized losses of 3.485 million, that have fallen short, as he admitted himself Saracho.
    It would be very difficult for any of the candidates to absorb the people's Bank made a tender offer with a premium over the current stock price
    Obviously, these are the first conclusions that you have reached Santander, Bankia, BBVA, Caixabank and Sabadell, deductions that have led some potential buyers to consider preliminary bids very far from the expectations of the board of directors of the Popular. According to the same sources, who requested total anonymity given the sensitivity that has led to the announcement of the sale, some of the banks have gone to the auction at the request of the minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos, interested in the consolidation of the Spanish banking sector and to avoid that the bid is deserted.
    [What happens with the Popular?]
    These numbers are going to be hairstyles in the next two weeks with additional documentation for those interested in submitting binding offers to know the risks that they assume. Several investment banks that are advising Santander, Bankia, BBVA, Caixabank and Sabadell indicate that, as already put forward several analysis firms, the value of the Popular could be negative in function of the amount of hidden losses, which would make it difficult to the candidates to absorb the bank linked to the Opus Dei made a TAKEOVER bid with a premium over the current price.
    The political factor, the risk for Bankia
    According to preliminary estimates, the effort to stay with the Popular would involve a capital increase of close to 6,000 million euros. A volume of actions which would lead to a dilution directly on the shareholders, since the benefits of integration to be the bank most profitable of Spain, as a result of the synergies by the workforce reduction, closure of offices and the application of the tax credits for the losses of the previous years, would not be until years later.

    Who is going to win the bid for Banco Popular?
    E. SEGOVIA
    In the Moneytalks this week, Eduardo Segovia speaks to us of one of the largest auctions bank produced in the history of Spain, the Bank
    In the case of Bankia, its entity status nationalised, recognize that your first goal is to return the money to the spaniards, after the injection to 22,400 million that it received from the State in may of 2012. In addition, they admit that with the current composition of the Congress, with the PP without a majority, it would be very difficult to defend the rescue of a private bank whose president has been dismissed —Angel Ron— with close to € 20 million between salary, pension and compensation. Even so, for the moment just need to keep doing numbers.
  3. forum rang 4 shaai 27 mei 2017 21:09
    Oké, gat van 3mrd, maar er zijn kopers, die willen alleen 3mrd minder betalen, oftewel 0. Eerst right issue?
    Market cap te hoog, dus sowieso short/puts/turbo.

    Met al een overname gepland, desnoods rights issue en kennelijk niet direct problemen bij de andere Spanjolen (anders waren dat geen kopers) zal het met de bondjes wel loslopen, tenzij de rights issue zo misloopt dat er gedwongen conversie plaats gaat vinden bij de perps.
  4. Stapelaar 27 mei 2017 21:54
    Merkwaardig is dat cijfers 2015 acceptabele solvabiliteit lieten zien. Rights issue van een jaar geleden bracht 2.5 mrd op en zou samen met de winst van 2016 worden aangewend om de o.g. leningen met achterstanden af te waarderen om ze beter afwikkelbaar te maken. In 2017 zou de weg omhoog weer worden ingeslagen. Slogan op de website: step by step we are securing our way to the future. Afboekingen 2016 bedroegen 3.5 mrd.

    Market cap schommelt laatste tijd tussen 2.5 en 3.0 mrd en als de concullegas nu zeggen dat er nog 4 mrd afboekingen nodig zijn dan heeft de ECB ook behoorlijk zitten snurken. Overigens vindt er momenteel een routinematige ECB audit plaats las ik ergens. Overigens hebben de kopers er alle belang bij om negatief te doen over de waarde van de activa.

    Met dit soort berichten is een rights issue kansloos, tenzij een potentiele koper bereid is de niet te plaatsen stukken op te vangen.

    De 300M 6% perp van Popular Capital genoteerd in Amsterdam ISIN DE0009190702 doet nu rond de 70 en telt dit jaar nog maar voor 50% mee in de solvency. Spannend hoe dit gaat aflopen.
  5. inf01911 28 mei 2017 16:49
    Lastig, lastig.

    Ik heb de 11,5% CoCo met een trigger van 5,125 CET1. Dat leek toen veilig omdat eerst de 8,25% CoCo met een trigger van 7% CET1 zou moeten bloeden en dat leek voldoende reserve. Nu gaan er geruchten dat potentiele kopers Popular willen overhalen/dwingen om door administratieve afboekingen de CET1 tot onder 5,125% te verlagen. In dat geval kunnen beide CoCo's worden omgezet naar aandelen. Levert de koper een voordeel van 1,25 miljard op.

    Geen idee of dat 'zomaar' kan.

    Vraag is wat nu handig is. Omwisselen naar de retailperp van 6% is een mogelijke optie. Die staat niet veel hoger dan beide CoCo's. Het lijkt me dat in bovengeschetst scenario de retailperps buiten schot blijven In ieder geval zit er bij mijn weten geen 'automatische omwisseling' in.

    Iemand een mening hierover?
  6. Stapelaar 28 mei 2017 17:32
    Weet je tegen welke prijs van de aandelen zo'n omruiling moet plaatsvinden? De omruil gedachte is helaas niet onlogisch in dit steekspel.

    In dat geval neemt het aantal aandelen flink toe en zal een koper iets moeten met de bestaande en de omgeruilde stukken. Als de koper een bank is -waar het op lijkt uit te komen- is het voor de integratie nodig om alle stukken te bezitten.

    De 6% perps zijn oude stijl (non cum) en het is voor mij de vraag of ze (koper, spaanse overheid en Europese autoriteiten) deze buiten schot laten als de CoCo's worden getriggered. In ieder geval zal de coupon worden geschrapt na zo'n afwaardering. De kwartaallijkse betaaldatum is 20 juli en dan zijn de halfjaarcijfers er hopelijk nog niet;)

    Ik heb al een behoorlijke positie in de 6% perps (gemiddelde kostprijs 83) en durf voorlopig niet bij te kopen.
    De markt is er ook niet gerust op gezien het forse aanbod van de afgelopen tijd.

    Wat zijn de huidige marktprijzen voor jouw coco's?
  7. inf01911 28 mei 2017 18:18
    Ik heb de 11,5% CoCo (uitgifte 2013, trigger 5,125%) en die heeft volgens mij een omwisselverhouding op basis van een aandelenkoers van 1,653 euro. De huidige aandelenkoers staat rond de 0,67 euro. Daarmee kom je op zo'n 40%.

    Bijkomend probleem is natuurlijk dat tegen die tijd de aandelenkoers niet meer op 0,67 euro staat (en dat veel van de huidige CoCo-bezitters al dan niet gedwongen moeten verkopen wat na de conversie weer extra koersdruk zal opleveren).

    De koers van deze CoCo staat op zo'n 68% (varieert nogal).
  8. forum rang 4 shaai 28 mei 2017 21:38
    quote:

    inf01911 schreef op 28 mei 2017 16:49:

    Lastig, lastig.

    Ik heb de 11,5% CoCo met een trigger van 5,125 CET1. Dat leek toen veilig omdat eerst de 8,25% CoCo met een trigger van 7% CET1 zou moeten bloeden en dat leek voldoende reserve. Nu gaan er geruchten dat potentiele kopers Popular willen overhalen/dwingen om door administratieve afboekingen de CET1 tot onder 5,125% te verlagen. In dat geval kunnen beide CoCo's worden omgezet naar aandelen. Levert de koper een voordeel van 1,25 miljard op.

    Geen idee of dat 'zomaar' kan.

    Vraag is wat nu handig is. Omwisselen naar de retailperp van 6% is een mogelijke optie. Die staat niet veel hoger dan beide CoCo's. Het lijkt me dat in bovengeschetst scenario de retailperps buiten schot blijven In ieder geval zit er bij mijn weten geen 'automatische omwisseling' in.

    Iemand een mening hierover?
    Bij Bankia was er ook een gedwongen 'vrijwillige' omwisseling, dus Spanje werkt daar wel mee. Wat dat betreft is die retail daar niet per se veilig voor
  9. Stapelaar 28 mei 2017 22:47
    quote:

    inf01911 schreef op 28 mei 2017 18:18:

    Ik heb de 11,5% CoCo (uitgifte 2013, trigger 5,125%)
    De koers van deze CoCo staat op zo'n 68% (varieert nogal).
    Merkwaardig dat het m.i. ietwat hogere risicoprofiel toch leidt tot ongeveer dezelfde waardering als die van de 6% perp.
    Ook zou je mee moeten nemen in de beoordeling in hoeverre er aan couponrente is geaccrued. Bij de 6% is dat 0.68.
  10. forum rang 4 shaai 28 mei 2017 23:37
    quote:

    inf01911 schreef op 28 mei 2017 21:42:

    [...]
    En weet je toevallig zo welke formule daarbij is gehanteerd?
    Pfoehhh, lang geleden, imo ging het gelijk met een (rights??) emissie, en keeeg je tegen dezelfde emissieprijs ter waarde van ca 75% vd nominaal aandelen. Imo beetje zoals dat in Griekenland gebeurde waar de aandelen voor 50% werden getenderd en je voor de cash dan ook verplicht mee moest doen aan de emissie
  11. Hoover 29 mei 2017 09:09
    2mrd cap, 4mrd tekort, 1mrd winst per jaar. 20% marktaandeel SME Spanje ... die wordt overgenomen. Ik heb ook de 6% maar breidt niet uit. Probleem is slechte o/g leningen boek (37bn Euro !!) , maar wel al geprovisioned voor belangrijk deel. CET1 is nu rond de 8.5% maar dit is obv de nieuwe regels die pas in 2019 beginnen. Onder de huidige regels is het meer richting de 10%. Vandaar dat de coco's voorlopig veilig zijn. Boekwaarde van de aandelen is 30%. Dus als het probleem voor 4mrd wordt opgelost verbetert dit ook de boekwaarde en dus een deel van de verwatering. De grote Spaanse banken zijn tot nu toe afhoudend, reden hiervoor is dat hun ratio's ook niet zo best zijn. Positive note: BBVA heeft net een At1 uitgegeven voor een whopping "below 6%" yield.
    Negative note: de 6% is zeeeer illiquide. Bid offers van enkele punten.. als er iets gebeurt zit je stuck.
  12. forum rang 4 shaai 29 mei 2017 15:36
    quote:

    Stapelaar schreef op 29 mei 2017 12:58:

    Shorten van de aandelen is denk ik ook tricky. Ik heb al paar maal gezien dat kort voor ex claim gaan er een short squeeze plaatsvindt.
    kan het wel?
    ik keek ff snel bij mijn rekeningen en zag zo geen turbo shorts, alleen bij Saxo een CDF maar die kon ik niet shorten.
63 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Word nu gratis lid of log in met je emailadres en wachtwoord.