De kleine rotatie

Beleggers zien steeds minder in groeiaandelen, ik noem ze liefkozend fashion stocks. Steeds meer geld stroomt uit deze categorie aandelen en stroomt in waardeaandelen. Bloomberg meldt:

Last month, we noted that high flying tech names were crashing back to earth. After terrific run ups, companies such as Twitter Inc., LinkedIn Corp., SolarCity Corp., Netflix Inc. and Tesla Motors Inc. all have taken a shellacking.

Percentage off from recent highs:

• Twitter -42 percent
• LInkedIn -34 percent
• SolarCity -33 percent
• Netflix -26 percent
• Facebook -22 percent
• Tesla -20 percent
• Priceline -14 percent
• Google -11 percent

Dit betekent niet dat alle technologie aandelen waardeloos zijn of minder waard worden. Het is alleen de trend die veranderd van groeiaandelen in 2012 en 2013 naar waardeaandelen in 2014. Copypaste van Bloomberg:

But not all tech stocks are getting pasted. Holding up well so far this year are the old names like Microsoft Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. These are profitable, mature, dividend-yielding companies that give value investors something to hang their hats on. So far this year.

Microsoft is up 6.6 percent; its 2.8 percent yield probably isn’t hurting either. Same with Cisco, yielding 3.4 percent; it was up 1.3 percent this year as of Friday. Oracle has gained 5.7 percent so far this year.Indeed, when we look around at what has been working this year, we find established names with strong dividend yields and (more or less) reasonable price-to-earnings ratios.

Consider how well the following has held up relative to the broader market: What has been working (trailing P/E)

• Johnson & Johnson (18)
• Merck (16)
• Caterpillar (19)
• Oracle (17)
• Microsoft (14)
• Hewlett-Packard (11)
• United Technologies (20)

Deze grafieken van Eddy Elfenbein laten de veranderende markt zien. Even ter uitleg: Het zwarte lijntje staat voor waardeaandelen en het gouden lijntje voor de groeiaandelen.

Kleine uitleg van Eddy Elfenbein zelf: 

Here’s a look at the S&P 500 (blue line, left scale) along with its trailing dividends (black line, right scale). The two lines are scaled at a ratio of 50-to-1 so whenever the lines cross, the dividend yield is exactly 2%.

Bloomberg is trouwens niet de enige die dit bericht. Wall Street Journal bevestigt:

De krant geeft diverse voorbeelden, ik pik er eentje uit:

Chris Bertelsen, chief investment officer of Global Financial Private Capital has recently bought shares of Microsoft Corp. MSFT +0.15%  and Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO -0.53%  Cisco yields 3.4% and is up 1.3% this year, while Microsoft yields 2.8% and is up 6.6% in the year to date.

"What we're trying to do is find those stocks that couple their dividends with a progressive growth rate," Mr. Bertelsen said. "The dividend is like sprinkles on the side."

Voor iedereen die liever dichter bij huis wil beleggen. Er is een index waarin meer dividend wordt betaald dan in de S&P 500: de AEX! Het dividend is 3%. Keurig percentage, maar het is ook wel eens meer geweest, zoals u ziet. Hier de reden.