Aandeel ADYEN NV AEX:ADYEN.NL, NL0012969182

quote:

DeZwarteRidder schreef op 15 augustus 2024 09:17:

Hoeveel van de winststijging komt van rente-inkomsten.....???

Dat is ca 168 miljoen in Halfjaar 2024.

Vorig jaar was dat ca 93 miljoen.

quote:

RobbieG schreef op 15 augustus 2024 09:46:

Hoi allen, als belegger op basis van trends / technische analyse ben ik op basis van de getallen van Voda gaan vragen aan ChatGPT wat een geschikte koers zou zijn voor Adyen. De resultaten wijken nogal af van de prijs waarin gehandeld wordt. Wie kan duiden waar ChatGPT een verkeerde afslag neemt?

Ik ben erg benieuwd!

To assess a good value for Adyen's stock price, we can begin by calculating key financial ratios that help in valuation, such as the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio and the Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio.

Given data:

EBITDA H1: EUR 423.1 million
Net Income (Net Profit) H1: EUR 409.6 million
Revenue (H1): EUR 1.03 billion
These are half-year figures, so for annualization, we typically double the figures (assuming similar performance in H2). However, it’s important to note that actual figures can vary in H2.

Step 1: Annualizing the Data
Annualized EBITDA: EUR 423.1 million * 2 = EUR 846.2 million
Annualized Net Income: EUR 409.6 million * 2 = EUR 819.2 million
Annualized Revenue: EUR 1.03 billion * 2 = EUR 2.06 billion
Step 2: Estimating the P/E Ratio
To estimate a stock price using the P/E ratio, we need:

Earnings Per Share (EPS): This is calculated as the annualized net income divided by the number of shares outstanding.
P/E ratio: A P/E ratio appropriate for the sector.
If we assume Adyen has an industry-standard P/E ratio (for the technology or fintech sector, let's assume 20-40 based on historical averages), the stock price can be estimated as:

Stock Price
=
EPS
×
P/E ratio
Stock Price=EPS×P/E ratio
Step 3: Estimating the EV/EBITDA Ratio
To estimate a stock price using the EV/EBITDA ratio, we need:

Enterprise Value (EV): This can be derived from the EV/EBITDA ratio typical for the sector.
EV/EBITDA ratio: This varies by industry but let's assume 15-25 for fintech.
Enterprise Value
=
EBITDA
×
EV/EBITDA ratio
Enterprise Value=EBITDA×EV/EBITDA ratio
Step 4: Calculating the Stock Price
Assuming:

Total Shares Outstanding: If we know this, we can calculate the stock price.
Net Debt: We adjust EV to find market capitalization by subtracting net debt from EV.
Without the exact number of shares and net debt, I can only guide through the process. However, here's how you can proceed:

Determine EPS: If Adyen has, for example, 100 million shares outstanding:

EPS = EUR 819.2 million / 100 million = EUR 8.192 per share.
Estimate Stock Price using P/E:

If P/E ratio = 30: Stock Price = 8.192 * 30 = EUR 245.76 per share.
If P/E ratio = 40: Stock Price = 8.192 * 40 = EUR 327.68 per share.
Estimate Stock Price using EV/EBITDA:

Assume EV/EBITDA = 20:
Enterprise Value = EUR 846.2 million * 20 = EUR 16.924 billion.
Subtract net debt (assume EUR 1 billion net cash): Market Cap = EUR 16.924 billion + 1 billion = EUR 17.924 billion.
Stock Price = EUR 17.924 billion / 100 million shares = EUR 179.24 per share.
Conclusion
Based on the sector's P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, the stock price could be estimated anywhere between EUR 179 to EUR 328 per share, depending on the specific multiples applied and the company’s balance sheet specifics. This range should be adjusted further based on actual P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios that are currently prevalent in the market for comparable companies.

quote:

RobbieG schreef op 15 augustus 2024 09:46:

Hoi allen, als belegger op basis van trends / technische analyse ben ik op basis van de getallen van Voda gaan vragen aan ChatGPT wat een geschikte koers zou zijn voor Adyen. De resultaten wijken nogal af van de prijs waarin gehandeld wordt. Wie kan duiden waar ChatGPT een verkeerde afslag neemt?

Ik ben erg benieuwd!

To assess a good value for Adyen's stock price, we can begin by calculating key financial ratios that help in valuation, such as the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio and the Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio.

Given data:

EBITDA H1: EUR 423.1 million
Net Income (Net Profit) H1: EUR 409.6 million
Revenue (H1): EUR 1.03 billion
These are half-year figures, so for annualization, we typically double the figures (assuming similar performance in H2). However, it’s important to note that actual figures can vary in H2.

Step 1: Annualizing the Data
Annualized EBITDA: EUR 423.1 million * 2 = EUR 846.2 million
Annualized Net Income: EUR 409.6 million * 2 = EUR 819.2 million
Annualized Revenue: EUR 1.03 billion * 2 = EUR 2.06 billion
Step 2: Estimating the P/E Ratio
To estimate a stock price using the P/E ratio, we need:

Earnings Per Share (EPS): This is calculated as the annualized net income divided by the number of shares outstanding.
P/E ratio: A P/E ratio appropriate for the sector.
If we assume Adyen has an industry-standard P/E ratio (for the technology or fintech sector, let's assume 20-40 based on historical averages), the stock price can be estimated as:

Stock Price
=
EPS
×
P/E ratio
Stock Price=EPS×P/E ratio
Step 3: Estimating the EV/EBITDA Ratio
To estimate a stock price using the EV/EBITDA ratio, we need:

Enterprise Value (EV): This can be derived from the EV/EBITDA ratio typical for the sector.
EV/EBITDA ratio: This varies by industry but let's assume 15-25 for fintech.
Enterprise Value
=
EBITDA
×
EV/EBITDA ratio
Enterprise Value=EBITDA×EV/EBITDA ratio
Step 4: Calculating the Stock Price
Assuming:

Total Shares Outstanding: If we know this, we can calculate the stock price.
Net Debt: We adjust EV to find market capitalization by subtracting net debt from EV.
Without the exact number of shares and net debt, I can only guide through the process. However, here's how you can proceed:

Determine EPS: If Adyen has, for example, 100 million shares outstanding:

EPS = EUR 819.2 million / 100 million = EUR 8.192 per share.
Estimate Stock Price using P/E:

If P/E ratio = 30: Stock Price = 8.192 * 30 = EUR 245.76 per share.
If P/E ratio = 40: Stock Price = 8.192 * 40 = EUR 327.68 per share.
Estimate Stock Price using EV/EBITDA:

Assume EV/EBITDA = 20:
Enterprise Value = EUR 846.2 million * 20 = EUR 16.924 billion.
Subtract net debt (assume EUR 1 billion net cash): Market Cap = EUR 16.924 billion + 1 billion = EUR 17.924 billion.
Stock Price = EUR 17.924 billion / 100 million shares = EUR 179.24 per share.
Conclusion
Based on the sector's P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, the stock price could be estimated anywhere between EUR 179 to EUR 328 per share, depending on the specific multiples applied and the company’s balance sheet specifics. This range should be adjusted further based on actual P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios that are currently prevalent in the market for comparable companies.

quote:

Speedbox schreef op 15 augustus 2024 11:09:

Opties zijn ook de weg kwijt en staan in het rood. Hoe kan dat in hemelsnaam ????
C1200 sept24 en C1400 dec24

quote:

Speedbox schreef op 15 augustus 2024 11:09:

Opties zijn ook de weg kwijt en staan in het rood. Hoe kan dat in hemelsnaam ????
C1200 sept24 en C1400 dec24

quote:

NielsjeB schreef op 15 augustus 2024 11:59:

[...]
IV crush

quote:

Speedbox schreef op 15 augustus 2024 12:25:

[...]

Ja had er nog nooit van gehoord en net opgezocht. Weet dat opties ingewikkeld in melkaar zitten maar dit slaat alles vandaag. Had beter losse aandelen kunnen kopen dus. Heb zelf altijd een rekensommetje indien out of the money van : gedeeld door twee en maal 0,7 en dat klopt meestal wel. Dat zou nu ongeveer €34 euro moeten zijn maar krijg maar €0,85 op de C1200 sep24

quote:

de schaatser schreef op 15 augustus 2024 16:02:

Toen ik vanochtend de cijfers zag, wilde ik niet wedden of we gelijk, naar beneden of naar boven zouden gaan met de koers. Immers we vielen met de cijfers ongeveer volgens de uitkomst van de analisten. Vaak vindt de handel het wel goed zo, maar dat we in het juiste sentiment vallen vandaag had ik in mijn stoutste dromen niet durven dromen. Kortom een pracht resultaat.

quote:

de schaatser schreef op 15 augustus 2024 16:02:

Toen ik vanochtend de cijfers zag, wilde ik niet wedden of we gelijk, naar beneden of naar boven zouden gaan met de koers. Immers we vielen met de cijfers ongeveer volgens de uitkomst van de analisten. Vaak vindt de handel het wel goed zo, maar dat we in het juiste sentiment vallen vandaag had ik in mijn stoutste dromen niet durven dromen. Kortom een pracht resultaat.