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China, Economische Wondere Wereldmacht

747 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 24 25 26 27 28 ... 38 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. [verwijderd] 24 juli 2007 19:44
    quote:

    dokter Lee schreef:

    Heeft iemand de hausse rondom het nieuwe China fonds van HSBC gevolgd? Op de tweede handelsdag in HK gingen de aandelen van HSBC Dragon China Fund (0820.hk) 41,5% omhoog, terwijl het fonds vrijdag al een plus van 20% liet zien. Het aardige is dat het fonds nog geen enkele dollar heeft geinvesteerd in A, B of H-shares en nog steeds op een berg cash zit. Kortom, de hausse rondom China is nog lang niet voorbij.

    Dokter Lee
    Hang Seng was één van de weinige beurzen die vannacht stevig in het groen bleef, ik ben overtuigd dat er opwaartse druk is en zal blijven, ben blij dat je nog post, dat was lang geleden.

    Thanks

  2. [verwijderd] 26 juli 2007 13:00
    China's Debt Rating Upgraded by Moody's to A1 (Update6)

    By Zhang Dingmin


    Barges transport cargo on the Huangpu river in Shanghai July 26 (Bloomberg) -- China received its highest-ever debt rating from Moody's Investors Service, buoyed by $1.3 trillion of foreign reserves that shield the economy from overseas slumps.

    The long-term foreign-currency rating rose one level to A1, the fifth-highest ranking, Moody's said in a statement today. The company assessed China's local-currency debt for the first time, assigning the same level.

    ``The external balances are in such a commandingly powerful position that it's very hard to look out five years and think anything could happen that would be serious enough to cause a credit event,'' said Tim Condon, head of research for Asia at ING Groep NV in Singapore.

    China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, grew 11.9 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in more than 12 years, powered by exports that pushed reserves to a world record. Moody's also upgraded South Korea's debt this week as exports swell currency holdings in Asian economies and fuel growth.

    The fifth upgrade in nine years puts China alongside Greece and the Czech Republic. Standard & Poor's today raised the outlook for its A rating for China to positive from stable. The ranking is the company's sixth highest.

    Credit-default swaps based on $10 million of China's dollar-denominated have fallen to $17,000 today from $26,100 in June 2006 as increasing foreign-exchange reserves boosted confidence the country can repay its debts.

    `Ludicrous' Investment

    The swaps rose $1000 today, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., as investors protected themselves from damage to global credit markets from defaults in U.S. sub-prime mortgages.

    ``People are just trying to insulate themselves from potential damage in the U.S. credit markets and credit markets generally by buying any protection they can,'' said Condon. ``You know we're sort of in a ludicrous zone when we've got the high-grade Asian sovereigns widening out as well.''

    Government bonds fell today in China, where investors are focused on government efforts to curb inflation that jumped to a 33-month high in June. The yield on the three-year bond rose 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point.

    ``China's very strong external payments position provides insulation from external shocks and allows the authorities time to expand and deepen structural reform,'' said Moody's Senior Vice President Tom Byrne. Financial or economic turbulence ``would not likely damage the government's creditworthiness.''

    China Development

    China's foreign debt stood at $323 billion at the end of 2006.

    China Development Bank, a so-called policy bank that lends mainly to infrastructure projects, may invest in Barclays Plc, the U.K. bank competing to buy ABN Amro Holding NV in the largest financial-services takeover. China Development has borrowed overseas in the past.

    The yield on Citic Resources Holdings Ltd.'s $1 billion of U.S. dollar bonds due in 2014 narrowed to 260 basis points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries at 11:32 a.m. in Hong Kong, down from 285 basis points yesterday, the lowest since July 23, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.

    The average yield since the bonds were sold in May has been 214 basis points over U.S. Treasuries.

    Better Banks

    Moody's highlighted the improved strength and supervision of the large state-owned commercial banks and upgraded the long- term deposit and debt ratings for seven lenders to A1 from A2. They were: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp., Agricultural Bank of China, China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China and the local unit of HSBC Holdings Plc.

    China spent 3.5 trillion yuan ($460 billion) bailing out and recapitalizing state lenders since 1998, according to the ratings company. Industrial & Commercial Bank yesterday overtook Citigroup Inc. as the world's largest bank by market value.

    Chinese government revenue has grown ``rapidly'' and is likely to reach 20 percent of gross domestic product in 2007 from less than 10 percent a decade ago, Moody's said, citing the improvement as another reason for the upgrade.

    Trade tensions may pose ``some risk'' and ratings will remain sensitive to relations with Taiwan, Moody's said.

    Hong Kong's rating rose to Aa2 from Aa3 after government finances improved, the ratings company said in a separate statement today. Standard & Poor's raised the outlook for its AA rating for the city to positive from stable.

    ``The Hong Kong government has almost no debt and large and growing fiscal reserves, equivalent to about one quarter of GDP,'' said Moody's Vice President Steven Hess.
  3. [verwijderd] 28 juli 2007 16:29
    Chinese economy remains in 'good shape'

    By Xiao Xin (China Daily)
    Updated: 2007-07-28 08:31

    The Chinese economy remains in good shape despite some problems that appeared as the economy soared in the first half of this year, top Chinese officials said.

    China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 11.9 percent in the second quarter and 11.5 percent in the first six months of 2007.

    But Ma Kai, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that more efforts have been made this year to ensure that the economy grows in a sound and stable manner.

    The commission announced on Friday that the central government had contributed a further 10 billion yuan ($1.32 billion) to the drive to promote energy saving and cut pollutant emissions. It also increased investment in agriculture and stabilizing pork prices.

    The State has also taken a series of measures to rein in investment, slow down exports, increase imports and reduce liquidity, which has pushed up the prices of assets.

    As a result, positive signs have emerged that point to more balanced economic development.

    The economic structure, which has leant towards industry and investment, has improved as the service sector grows and consumption rises.

    In addition, the competitiveness of Chinese firms has been improved as a result of technological upgrading.

    The profit-making capacity of Chinese enterprises is also on the rise. Major industrial enterprises raked in a total of 900 billion yuan ($118.9 billion) in profit in the first five months of this year, up 42.1 percent year-on-year.

    Chinese farmers reaped a hard-won harvest this summer despite severe natural disasters, such as heavy rainfalls.

    Energy efficiency is also improving, while energy consumption per unit of GDP is continuing to fall, as is the emission of pollutants.

    Xie Fuzhan, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said the economy is generally in good shape, as its quality is improving and people benefit more from economic growth.

    The economic growth rate should not be the only factor for judging the soundness of the economy, he said. A comprehensive method should be adopted that looks at the economy from such perspectives as improvements in employment, economic quality, structure and people's living standards, added Xie.

    Although consumer prices are rising strongly, they have been driven mainly by rising food prices, which are also a victim of international grain price rises.

    Analysts said that as domestic supply is growing rapidly, food prices would not continue to rise.

  4. [verwijderd] 1 augustus 2007 12:41
    Chinese economie geen echte zeepbel?

    De Chinese economie groeide in het tweede kwartaal met 11,9 procent, het snelste groeiritme in 12 jaar. Vorige week werd aan de legendarische belegger Marc Faber dan ook gevraagd wat de kans is dat de Chinese economie oververhit en nadien in een recessie belandt.

    "Naar mijn mening zijn er waarschijnlijk wel een aantal excessen op het vlak van kapitaalbestedingen en uiteindelijk zal de Chinese economie ook wel vertragen. Een daling van de groei van 11 procent naar 5 of 6 procent zou eigenlijk al een serieuze vertraging betekenen. We moeten ons echter realiseren dat China een immens groot land is waardoor een vertraging in 1 bepaalde regio of deelsector van de economie gecompenseerd kan worden door een betere prestatie in andere regio's of andere sectoren.

    Indien we de recessies van de Verenigde Staten tijdens de voorbije 200 jaar bekijken zien we dit fenomeen ook. Tijdens de oliecrisis van de jaren '80 deed Texas het heel slecht maar presteerde het noordoosten van de Verenigde Staten erg goed. In de jaren '90 was er een recessie in Californimaar groeiden andere regio's wel sterk.

    De beschikbare geldmiddelen van de Chinese gezinnen bedragen meer dan 100 procent van het bruto nationaal product van China en gemiddeld zijn de Chinezen voor slechts 10 procent gevesteerd in de aandelenmarkt. Er is misschien wel een zeepbel op de Chinese aandelenmarkt, maar dus niet n die zware schade zal berokkenen aan de economische vooruitgang," aldus dhr Faber.
  5. [verwijderd] 24 augustus 2007 16:44
    quote:

    The Artist schreef:

    [quote=dokter Lee]
    Heeft iemand de hausse rondom het nieuwe China fonds van HSBC gevolgd? Op de tweede handelsdag in HK gingen de aandelen van HSBC Dragon China Fund (0820.hk) 41,5% omhoog, terwijl het fonds vrijdag al een plus van 20% liet zien. Het aardige is dat het fonds nog geen enkele dollar heeft geinvesteerd in A, B of H-shares en nog steeds op een berg cash zit. Kortom, de hausse rondom China is nog lang niet voorbij.

    Dokter Lee
    Hang Seng was één van de weinige beurzen die vannacht stevig in het groen bleef, ik ben overtuigd dat er opwaartse druk is en zal blijven, ben blij dat je nog post, dat was lang geleden.

    Thanks

    Ik wil t.l. kopen op de chinese index wat raad je me aan HSCEI of SHENZHEN?

    b.v.b.d. Anneke.

  6. [verwijderd] 24 augustus 2007 16:46
    quote:

    rjm schreef:

    [quote=The Artist]
    [quote=dokter Lee]
    Heeft iemand de hausse rondom het nieuwe China fonds van HSBC gevolgd? Op de tweede handelsdag in HK gingen de aandelen van HSBC Dragon China Fund (0820.hk) 41,5% omhoog, terwijl het fonds vrijdag al een plus van 20% liet zien. Het aardige is dat het fonds nog geen enkele dollar heeft geinvesteerd in A, B of H-shares en nog steeds op een berg cash zit. Kortom, de hausse rondom China is nog lang niet voorbij.

    Dokter Lee
    [/quote]

    Hang Seng was één van de weinige beurzen die vannacht stevig in het groen bleef, ik ben overtuigd dat er opwaartse druk is en zal blijven, ben blij dat je nog post, dat was lang geleden.

    Thanks

    Ik wil t.l. kopen op de chinese index wat raad je me aan HSCEI of SHENZHEN?

    b.v.b.d. Anneke.

    Allebei Anneke.

    Als ge trouwt dan koopt ge toch ook een kind, ge blijft toch niet met ene vent, nee, daar komt ne kleine aap bij.
  7. [verwijderd] 24 augustus 2007 16:53
    quote:

    The Artist schreef:

    [quote=rjm]
    [quote=The Artist]
    [quote=dokter Lee]
    Heeft iemand de hausse rondom het nieuwe China fonds van HSBC gevolgd? Op de tweede handelsdag in HK gingen de aandelen van HSBC Dragon China Fund (0820.hk) 41,5% omhoog, terwijl het fonds vrijdag al een plus van 20% liet zien. Het aardige is dat het fonds nog geen enkele dollar heeft geinvesteerd in A, B of H-shares en nog steeds op een berg cash zit. Kortom, de hausse rondom China is nog lang niet voorbij.

    Dokter Lee
    [/quote]

    Hang Seng was één van de weinige beurzen die vannacht stevig in het groen bleef, ik ben overtuigd dat er opwaartse druk is en zal blijven, ben blij dat je nog post, dat was lang geleden.

    Thanks

    Ik wil t.l. kopen op de chinese index wat raad je me aan HSCEI of SHENZHEN?

    b.v.b.d. Anneke.

    [/quote]

    Allebei Anneke.

    Als ge trouwt dan koopt ge toch ook een kind, ge blijft toch niet met ene vent, nee, daar komt ne kleine aap bij.
    Rare vergelijking, maar toch bedankt.
    Gr. Anneke.
  8. [verwijderd] 2 september 2007 09:53
    'Amnesty liegt over Olympische Spelen in China'
    zaterdag 1 september 2007 11:05

    In zijn campagne tegen de Olympische Spelen in China licht mensenrechtenorganisatie Amnesty International het publiek verkeerd voor en wordt de werkelijkheid verdraaid.

    Actie van Amnesty International tegen de Olympische Spelen
    Dat zegt het Nederlandse IOC-lid Hein Verbruggen, die zegt op persoonlijke titel te spreken, vandaag in de Volkskrant.

    Zo beweert Amnesty dat de Chinese stad Peking de organisatie van de Spelen pas toegewezen kreeg nadat de regering beloofde de mensenrechtensituatie te verbeteren.

    'Leugen'
    'Dat is een leugen. Dat heeft het IOC nooit van de Chinezen gevraagd. Dat kan ook niet, want dan begeven we ons op politiek terrein,' zegt Verbruggen.

    Het IOC heeft volgens het IOC-lid alleen afgesproken dat China zich niet bemoeit met de pers: de internationale media moeten alles kunnen schrijven over de Olympische Spelen. Volgens Verbruggen is de Chinese regering deze belofte tot op heden ook perfect nagekomen.

    Ook denkt hij dat de Olympische Spelen uiteindelijk een positief effect op de mensenrechten in dat land zullen hebben.

    Gedwongen
    Verder beweert Amnesty dat honderdduizenden inwoners van Peking gedwongen uit hun huis worden gezet. Ook een 'platte leugen' volgens het IOC-lid, die zegt dat het om hooguit 7.000 Chinezen gaat.

    'Als ik in Helmond kom en mijn oude wijk ligt tegen de grond, dan heet dat stadsvernieuwing. Als het in China gebeurt, is het een schending van de mensenrechten,' zegt Verbruggen.

    'Verkeerd signaal'
    Verbruggen zegt zich te realiseren dat hij door deze uitspraken mogelijk wordt gezien als iemand die de Chinese politiek verdedigt. Maar hij vindt dat de mensenrechtenorganisatie wel eerlijk moet zijn in zijn campagnes.

    Amnesty noemt de uitspraken van Verbruggen een 'klap in het gezicht van de verdedigers van de mensenrechten en een volstrekt verkeerd signaal aan de Chinese autoriteiten'.

    Door Robbert de Witt
  9. [verwijderd] 3 september 2007 07:19
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=itB7E7TRGhc

    You want to bash China because the media exposes China as a yellow economic peril or a communist villain? Watch this very objective and educational video to understand the complexities first.

    China Thinks Long-term, But Can It Relearn to Act Long-term?

    "China is the most unresolved nation of consequence in the world," Orville Schell began. It is defined by its massive contradictions. And by its massiveness - China's population is estimated to be 1.25 to 1.3 billion; the margin of error in the estimate is greater than the population of France. It has 160 cities with a population over one million (the US has 49). It has the world's largest standing army.

    No society in the world has more millennia in its history, and for most of that history China looked back. Then in the 20th century the old dynastic cycles were replaced by one social cancellation after another until 1949, when Mao set the country toward the vast futuristic vision of Communism. That "mad experiment" ended with Deng Xiaoping's effective counter-revolution in the 1980s, which unleashed a new totalistic belief, this time in the market.

    So what you have now is a society sick of grand visions, in search of another way to be, focused on the very near term.

    These days you cannot think usefully about China and its potential futures without holding in your mind two utterly contradictory views of what is happening there. On the one hand, a robust and awesomely growing China; on the other hand a brittle China, parts of it truly hellish - The Long Now Foundation"
    The public has a right to be informed.
  10. [verwijderd] 3 september 2007 07:43
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5g-HHK5krc

    Stop Racism. Stop. Think.

    The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in Japan, China's biggest food importer, said in July that 99.42 percent of the imported food from China in 2006 met safety standards, the European Union trailing with 99.38 percent and 98.69 percent of the U.S.

    This video is against China-bashers who try to emulate moral crusaders, but are actually imperialist puppets or simply ,historically seen, racists. boycotting Chinese goods will not improve human rights in China, but destroy millions of jobs and send millions of Chinese back to the coutryside and crush their hope for a better life. the human rights card is just a race card. ask the chinese people what they want and they will say work. how fair is it, to blame and target a people for their thrift and industriousness?
    What the financial perpetrators don't want you to know. The Revelation: Tibet is a case of Machiavellian warfare, the Dalai Lama is just a pawn!
  11. [verwijderd] 5 september 2007 11:57
    Chinezen rukken fors op in aandelenhitparade

    Drie van de grootste zes beursgenoteerde bedrijven komen uit China: ICBC (de grootste bank), China Mobile en PetroChina. De opmars van de Chinese bedrijven is indrukwekkend: begin april werd de wereldwijde top zes nog bevolkt door vijf Amerikaanse aandelen en door het Russische Gazprom.

    (tijd) - De Chinese aandelen profiteren van de lokale aandelengekte: steeds meer Chinezen ruilen hun spaarboekjes in voor beleggingen op de beurs. Daardoor zijn de aandelenkoersen op de beurzen van Sjanghai en Shenzhen zowel dit als vorig jaar ruim verdubbeld. Ook in volle kredietcrisis stuurden de beleggers de aandelen naar recordhoogten.

    Om aan de hoge vraag te voldoen, zet de overheid de bedrijven aan nieuwe aandelen uit te geven. Verschillende miljardenemissies staan op stapel, onder meer van PetroChina en van China Construction Bank.
  12. [verwijderd] 6 september 2007 07:53
    quote:

    erwin1 schreef:

    zou er nog een leuk koopdipje komen op de HS?

    eigenlijk heb ik altijd succes gehad met het kopen van de HS op de (soms zware) dips ipv kopen als de trein rijdt.
    op dit moment is dat een verschrikkelijk moeilijke vraag, vandaar dat ik altijd in de trein blijf zitten, echt waar, no joke, ook Dr Lee verwacht een klein dipje, maar ik weet het niet, volgens mij gaat de Hang Seng rond de 24.000 punten blijven hangen als een dronken Chinees, niet wetende wat ie wil.

    maar eens ie een tijdje boven de 24.000 punten plaats neemt is ie weer weg, oldman heeft al in een andere draad geschreven dat JP Morgan een koersdoel van 29.000 punten heeft eind 2008.

    Reden te meer om in de trein te zitten en op dipjes bij te kopen, ook robin01 past deze strategie toe.
  13. [verwijderd] 11 september 2007 11:44
    quote:

    The Artist schreef:

    Premier van China ( vertaald in het Engels )

    Dalian - Wen Jiabao

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=qObqnBlpN2w
    China Focus: Summer Davos concludes with hope, suggestion and appeal

    2007-09-08 07:50:43 Xinhua English

    Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivers a special address during a plenary session to welcome guests of the Inaugural Annual Meeting of the New Champions in the Plenary Hall of the Dalian World Expo Center in Dalian, a coastal city in northeast China's Liaoning Province, Sept. 6, 2007.



    DALIAN, Sept. 8 (Xinhua) -- As the curtain of three-day Summer Davos meeting in Dalian of northeastern China is lowered, participants are loaded with hope while voicing suggestions and making appeals.

    Held in a developing country which has stunned the world with sustained economic miracle over the past three decades, the global meeting of the World Economic Forum surely had focused its heated topics on China's economic expansion.

    Unexpected by the participants, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out China's economic hike was shadowed by problems such as unstable factors, imbalances and the lack of sustainability.

    In spite of the challenges, he expressed confidence in the country's future economic growth. "Will such development momentum continue? My answer is yes. We are fully confident..." he said.

    Nearly 2,000 domestic and foreign officials, specialists and business people could feel China's determination to achieve sustainable development the moment they arrived in Dalian, when their shuttle buses were powered by hybrid engines and the World Expo Center covering 140,000 square meters was cooled with sea water.

    China announced the ambitious goal of reducing the energy consumption of per unit of its GDP (gross domestic product) by 20 percent and pollutant emission by ten percent during the 11th Five-year Plan (2006-2010).

    Thomas L. Friedman, author of the book The World is Flat, observed that China is undergoing a second economic transformation from polluting economy to clean economy, which can be harder than the transformation from planned economy to market economy.

    However, he noted that the "green transformation" not only means challenge but also opportunity, and China is likely to become an innovator of low-cost green technologies.

    Samuel A. DiPiazza, chief executive officer with Pricewaterhouse Cooper, pointed out that China has advantages in its cheap labor force and innovation capability. "Finding the right way, its high-value-added industries can boom like those with lower added values," he said.

    Asia Chairman of Morgan Stanley Stephen Roach believed that China is undergoing an unavoidable travail period, after which its service industry shall stride onto a new stage.

    Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pledged at the Summer Davos that the government will "be committed to a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable path of development that puts people's interests first."

    "The premier's speech gives us a deeper insight into the inner thinking of China's development at current stage and higher degree of confidence in the country's future," said Professor Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum.

    Talking about the Summer Davos, he believed it is "successful and fruitful". "This is probably the best meeting...and sessions from early morning to late night are interactive," he said.

    He asked the delegates three questions in a panel session: Did you make a new partner? Did you find an idea that could make virtual change in your business strategy? Did you become aware of more responsibility concerning environmental protection and social wellness?

    As to the first question, two thirds of the attendants put up their hands, while their responses to the last two questions were unanimously positive.

    E. Neville Isdell, chairman and chief executive officer of the Coca-Cola Company, was inspired by the meeting, especially a conversation with Premier Wen Jiabao. "China is currently our fourth largest market, but I hope it could become No.1." He was optimistic.

    Liu Jiren, chairman and chief executive officer of China's Liaoning-based Neosoft Group, said that he had found a partner of his company during the meeting, figured out the company's future direction and identified its responsibility.

    A growth company community for "big companies in the process of becoming giant and multinational" has been set up during the meeting. Liu's Neosoft is one of the members.

    Economic issue is not the only one grabbing the spotlight of the meeting.

    At a plenary session on Saturday afternoon, Dr. Peter Piot, executive director of the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS(UNAIDS), called on businesses to shoulder more responsibility while educating their employees.

    "China is making enormous progress in combating HIV/AIDS," he said. "It has fully recognized the hazard of the disease and the government is becoming more transparent in publicizing relevant information."

    According to estimates by the country's Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization, China has about 650,000 people living with HIV/AIDS at present, 75,000 of them have developed AIDS.

    "Protecting the employees is not only out of morality, but also for the interests of the company," he said. However, he noted that few Chinese companies in the tide of economic boom realized the problem.

    Piot suggested AIDS be included into a company's risk assessment.

    He also said that the policies of non-discrimination should be drafted in the company, education as how to protect against the fatal disease be conducted and all employees should have access to free condoms.

    Sir Martin Sorrel, chief executive officer of WPP Group, the world's second biggest advertising and marketing company, added that companies also have social responsibility to do their own part in the anti-AIDS campaign.

    "Pharmaceutical companies should make breakthroughs in developing new medicines while logistic companies help deliver the medicine," he said.

    Kawada Ryuhei, member of the House of Councilors in Japan, shared his experience as an HIV-infected with other participants. The 31-year-old man got infected by blood transfusion when he was a kid but has always remained optimistic.

    After his speech titled "I do not give up hope", the modest Japanese was greeted with thunderous applause. "People's support made my future path shining with more hope," he beamed.

    While participants were packing their luggage to leave the glitzy glass-walled World Expo Center, Tianjin City about 800 km away began to count down for the next session of Summer Davos.

    "As Tianjin is closer to Beijing, I hope we can draw more participants," said Dai Xianglong, mayor of the coastal city.

    Klaus Schwab said he hoped the next session would be another success.


  14. [verwijderd] 16 september 2007 14:41
    US sub-prime crisis to hit India, China

    New Delhi, Sept 16


    The slackening of US economy due to the sub-prime mortgage crisis will significantly impact the Indian and Chinese economies, which will find difficult to insulate themselves from the global slowdown, a survey said.

    External trade in merchandise and services accounts for 45 per cent of the Indian economy and could impede the Indian growth story, it said, adding that the external sector has been growing at 30 per cent over the last four years.

    In a survey conducted by industry body Assocham Business Barometer poll of 319 CEOs and CMDs, it revealed that 86 per cent of them did not agree with a premise that growth in Indian economy is largely domestic driven.

    Almost 72 per cent of the CEOs said any downturn in American consumer spending and the employment growth will have a direct impact on the European, Chinese and Japanese economies with which India finds itself largely integrated.

    ''The problem of weakening housing prices in the US and the sub-prime mortgage crisis are indicative of declining trend of aggregate demand and consumer spending. This could decelerate the overall growth of US economy as consumer spending constitutes 70 per cent of the US's GDP,'' said Assocham President Venugopal Dhoot.

    An official data stated that about 60 per cent of India’s exports go to the US, Europe, China and Japan which have largely seen export-led growth mostly influenced by high-spending American consumers.

    The signs of slowdown in US economy have started appearing. The non-farm payroll numbers in August have shown declined for the first time since 2003 as jobs fell by 4,000 in last month. Private payrolls growth has slowed to average 70,000 in the past three months from 1,65,000 in the second half of 2006.

    While only 23 per cent of the ABB respondents felt that the strong Asian growth will sustain the economic growth in the event of a slowdown in the US.

    Seventy-six per cent of them said a widespread slowdown in world economic growth is inevitable.

    The recent UNCTAD Report has also warned that present slowdown in the US economy caused by reversal in previously booming housing market could disrupt the global economic expansion.

    Almost 79 per cent of the CEOs surveyed felt that the economic conditions in the Indian economy are poised for slowdown. Sharp slump in the growth of industrial production in July 2007 at 7.1 per cent against 13.2 per cent in same month last year, is seen as an early indication of deceleration in pace of economic expansion.

    The manufacturing sector which accounts for 79.3 per cent of the index of industrial production has taken the maximum hit with almost 50 per cent reduction in growth in July from 14.3 per cent in 2006 to 7.2 per cent this year. The slowdown in manufacturing is prompted by slack in machinery, transport equipments, metals, minerals and textile sector during April-July 2007 attributable to high interest rates and rupee appreciation.

    The capital goods sector has registered 12.9 per cent growth in July this year as compared to 18.3 per cent same period last year.

    Ninety-one per cent of the CEOs were concerned about slowdown in manufacturing growth as it is a job-oriented sector. Government is planning to shift labour from crisis-ridden agriculture sector to manufacturing sector.

    About 76 per cent of the respondents said export growth is an important contributor to GDP growth of the Indian economy. With the merchandise exports growth slowing down to 18.52 per cent in July 2007 compared to 40.27 per cent growth in July 2006, it would be difficult to maintain the growth momentum.

    As rupee appreciated by 8.2 per cent during April to July, the export growth in rupee terms was mere 3.10 per cent this year against the growth of 31.77 per cent in the month of July previous year.

    --- UNI

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