Aandeel ASML Holding AEX:ASML.NL, NL0010273215

quote:

SNSN schreef op 8 november 2017 18:57:

For the last months the stock has formed (bearish) 'rising wedge' pattern with the target price ~160 Eur for Nov 8.

The lower edge of that 'rising wedge' pattern was broken down yesterday at ~159.

As the lower pattern edge was broken (see above), the actual 'pattern target' should be ~142. However, the 'first target' is just around ~152 - strong resistance at the lower edge of rising (trading) channel formed since Aug 29.

In general, at current P/E = ~35 (price/earning ratio) the stock is highly overpriced. Actually above ~120 it's not an 'investment stock' any more, but just a 'trading stock' for the active 'mid-size speculators' - day-traders (using basic 'trading strategies' with usd & eur 'hedging accounts', given well expected declining for Eur/Usd-rates since Aug 29 - compare with the stock 'rising channel' above).

Indeed, 'investment stocks' usually have P/E ratios in the range 15 - 26. Compare with the P/E ratios for diff indices: P/E (S&P) = ~25; P/E (Nasdaq 100) = ~26; P/E (Dow Ind) = 21. For instance, for EPS = 9.2 Usd for 'Apple' (AAPL), the E/P ratio is just around ~19.

So, given stock's current annual earnings ~4.66 (1.23 + 1.05 + 1.08 +1.3) the stock's fair value is in the range ~ 70-121 (assuming the stock is an 'investment' one).

Again, given the Q3-report (take a look at the 'net booking') the 'net sales' in the next quarter Q4-2017 will be much lower, i.e. around ~2.28, than in the Q3-2017 (read old posts for details). As for the EPS for Q4-2017, it will be also well below the EPS from Q3-2017, to be precise - just around ~1.26, i.e. very close to the EPS = 1.23 for Q4-2016.

So, take care. Good luck.

quote:

SNSN schreef op 30 november 2017 12:10:

[...]

Pivot points (for Nov 30): PP=150.23
Resistance: R1=153.60
Support: S1=144.62; S2=141.25

The d-sentiment is still negative - the stock is trading under the PP-line.

As for st/mt-horizons, you were informed that the actual 'patter target' is ~142 (take a look above).

Actually the stock (and the sector) has passed by a 'bubble border' long ago (read recent posts). If briefly, the P/E ratio for the stock, being stable just slightly fluctuating around ~26 for many years 2013-2016, has sharply risen to ~35 just recently (at P/E ~19 for 'aex'). Though, for main indices, like for instance DJ,S&P, etc., the P/E-ratios stay almost constant within 2016-2017 (read recent posts for details). This confirms unproportional, much faster price rising (not justified by fundamentals) for the stock over its earnings.

Don't also forget that bearish reversal signal - 'dark cloud cover' (Nov 21&22) was followed by 'bearish engulfing' (Nov 28&29).

The price-volume correlations stay negative (read old posts).

As for standard indicators, the 'macd' is under the 'signal' and turning negative. The 'mfi', systemically falling down from its top ~90 on Nov 7, is current around ~40.

The fair value (based on company fundamentals) is just within the range ~70-120.

As for 'aex', the index is still busy with its 'right shoulder' (read recent posts for details).

Good luck.