Ontvang nu dagelijks onze kooptips!

word abonnee
Van beleggers
voor beleggers
Uitgebreid zoeken

Beurscodes, betekenis en hulp bij zoeken

Europa

AEX
Euronext Amsterdam
BRU
Euronext Brussels
PSE
Euronext Paris
LIS
Euronext Lissabon
CHX
CBOE Europe, grote(re) EU aandelen
NAV
Investment Funds (NAV)

Noord-Amerika

NYS
New York Stock Exchange
OTC
CBOE BZX Exchange (US)
TSE
Toronto Stock Exchange

Kunt u een instrument niet vinden?

Zoek dan via de zogenaamde ISIN code. Elk instrument, aandeel etc. heeft een unieke code.

Kies vervolgens - wanneer er meerdere resultaten zijn - de notering op de beurs van uw keuze.

Waar vind ik die ISIN code?

Google de naam van het instrument, aandeel etc. met de toevoeging 'ISIN'.

Als zoeken op ISIN code geen resultaten oplevert hebben wij het instrument of aandeel niet in onze koersendatabase.

desktop iconMarkt Monitor
  • Word abonnee

  • Inloggen

    • Geen account? Registreren

    Wachtwoord vergeten?
Markt vandaag Koersen Forum Premium IEX Expert
Home  /  Forum  /  Koffiekamer  /  Richard Abma - Hindenburg-risico

Koffiekamer« Terug naar discussie overzicht

Richard Abma - Hindenburg-risico

Volgen
61 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  11. [verwijderd] 26 juli 2010 21:51
    quote:

    Goodnight Vienna schreef:

    [quote=akro]
    er is op 6 juli GEEN hindenburg signaal geweest. Het aantal 52 week hoog en 52 week laag voldeed niet aan de voorwaarde van 2,2 % van het aantal verhandelde fondsen.
    [/quote]
    Als dat maar geen Titanic teken is!oei.oei
    bij de titanic had je nog tijd voor een reddingsboot de hindenburg was sneller beneden. Als je dit signaal gelooft dan liever de titanic dan de hindenburg.

    de bos
  12. [verwijderd] 26 juli 2010 22:05
    Vermoedelijk kruist binnen nu en 2 weken de dalende eblijn de opkomende vloedlijn en dat duidt onvermijdelijk op een zeer sterke golden cross. Hihi. Vergeet al die grafieken nu maar (dat waren wijsheden toen nog niet iedereen toegang had tot de beurs; deze wordt nu bepaald door o.a. huisvrouwen).
  13. [verwijderd] 27 juli 2010 00:17
    De Hindenburg is aan het eind van de tweede wereldoorlog vergaan. Na een heroische strijd in soms heel erg dikke mist moest het Duitse schip zijn meerdere erkennen in de geconcentreerde alliantische zeemacht.

    De Hindenburg werd totaal lek geschoten en zonk.

    Het is godsonmogelijk dat er nu nog signalen worden afgegeven door dat schip en dus nog onmogelijker dat analisten ze ontvangen.

    Maar stel dat er nog wel signalen komen en ook van al die andere oorlogsbodems die zijn gezonken.

    Wanneer krijgen we de signalen van de Karel Doorman door en stel voor dat die signalen die van de Hindenburg kruisen...????

    En wat dacht van al de gezonken U boote en andere onderzeeers ????

    En de UFO's ??? In de buurt van Zevenbergen zijn vandaag een paar graancirkels ontdekt. Gezien de perfect geometrische lijnen met hydraterende divergentie moet dat het lang verwacht bull-signaal zijn !!!

    vriendelijke groet
    winckie

  15. [verwijderd] 27 juli 2010 03:24
    Beste Richard,

    Hoe verzin je het! Best wel knap.

    Maar nu even de realiteit. Voorlopig zit je er dus weer mooi naast. De koersen zijn aan het stijgen.

    De wereldeconomie blijft domweg groeien, en dat is bepalend.

    Men heeft geleerd van zijn fouten. De financials kruipen uit het dal. De huizenmarkt kruipt uit het dal. Het is alleen nu nog wachten op verbetering van de werkeloosheid. Bij iedere recessie komt die achteraan.

    Je hebt weer heel veel verloren de laatste maanden!

    Wilde ik toch wel even kwijt!
  16. [verwijderd] 27 juli 2010 07:59
    Hindenburg...van die Zeppelin die vlam vatte?

    De spreekwoordelijk luchtballon (nou o.k., waterstofballon) die leegloopt(in vlammen opgaat)?

    even opgezocht...idd:

    Hindenburg Omen
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search
    The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, the crash of the German zeppelin on May 6th 1937.

    Contents [hide]
    1 History
    2 Mechanics
    3 Criteria
    4 Possible or known weaknesses
    5 Conclusions
    6 Recent events
    6.1 Historical events
    7 External links

    [edit] History
    Credit for discovery of the Omen is given to Jim Miekka, a friend of Kennedy Gammage. Kennedy who was probably the foremost expert on the Omen (and associated with the Sudbury Report) suggested to Jim that it be dubbed the Hindenburg Omen after that ill-fated dirigible, doomed to crash.

    [edit] Mechanics
    The Hindenburg Omen is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market—specifically the NYSE.

    The main goal of the indicator is to determine if a higher overall probability exists such that a stock market crash has a higher likelihood than normal.

    The Hindenburg Omen can also assess to a limited extent if a probability of a severe decline is on average higher than normal.

    The general rationale behind the indicator is that "under normal conditions" either

    1.A substantial number of stocks set new annual highs
    2.A substantial number of stocks set new annual lows
    3.Conditions 1 & 2 cannot both take place at the same time, it is either one or the other—but not both
    However, this indicator mainly tracks new lows and downside risk. This is a part of its strength and part of its weakness.

    A healthy market requires some degree of internal uniformity, whether the direction of that uniformity is up or down.

    [edit] Criteria
    The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen has five criteria:

    1.That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
    2.That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75. This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
    3.That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
    4.That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
    5.That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
    These measures are calculated each evening using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen.

    A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.

    The Hindenburg Omen mechanism can be applied to other stock exchanges like Paris, Berlin, Tokyo or Sydney but the criteria for it must overall be the same.

    [edit] Possible or known weaknesses
    To eliminate false positives some technical analysts (as a rule) have imposed the condition that the Hindenburg Omen

    "must be triggered 3 times in a row within a month from the 1st triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid"
    must be valid when "all tightly coupled triggerings are within a fortnight" (14 working days)
    will indicate a possible future downturn or correction, depending on the magnitude of any "one off" triggering
    One off Hindenburg Omen signals are always considered unconfirmed as the indicator has a high false alarm rate. A train of 3 to 5 coupled Hindenburg Omens are preferred by analysts wherever possible.

    The 2.2% number seems to be tied to (or gives the appearance of being) the average growth within the US economy since 1955, an average of only about 2%. The original creators of this signal have not fully explained their use of 2.2% constant, and they themselves may not know why this constant works.

    The condition of the "NYSE 10 Week Moving Average is rising" may be subject to tweaking up or down 3 or 4 weeks. This condition's overall role in removing noise of the weekly flux of the stock market is unclear or not well understood.

    The effects of the recent merger of the NYSE with Euronext may have an effect on future predictions, but it is assumed that carefully filtering out non-US stocks from the triggering signal may restore the signal to its original functionality.

    A small family of Hindenburg Omens (with minor changes in each one) performing as a voting block could potentially perform better than the single voting mechanism in place right now (with its mechanisms to avoid false triggering).

    The Hindenburg Omen indicator was devised during the longest peacetime economic growth in US history (1955-2007). It is totally unknown how it will cope with multi-year or quarter century economic depression conditions.

    Central bank intervention in the stock market can interfere with the triggering mechanism of the Omen. It must be noted that the triggering conditions—with respect to central bank intervention—are quite difficult to manipulate. Most of the Omen's indicators are long term and of a broad market nature. Central banks intervening in the market to keep the Hindenburg Omen from triggering is unknown as there are related market triggers to indicate a downturn is coming—and this one is probably the hardest and costliest to rig.

    [edit] Conclusions
    Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days.

    The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%.

    However, the occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down, although every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen.

    Because of the very specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, it is possible that this phenomenon is simply a case of overfitting. That is, if one backtests through a large data set and tries enough different variables, eventually correlations are bound to be found that don't really have any predictive significance.

    The fact remains that out of the previous 25 confirmed signals only 8% (two) have failed to predict at least a mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines, so it is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress.

    [edit] Recent events
    No Hindenburg Omen has been triggered so far in 2010, and none since the market lows in 2009. The deciding factor for this has been the number of New Lows, mostly less than 20 - far too few. After the market lows of early 2009, a bullish period started, carried by almost all industrial sectors (and therefore preventing a significant number of annual lows from any sectors).
    Therefore, in terms of the Mechanics of the Hindenburg Omen, "normal conditions" have prevailed and no Omen was triggered.

    [edit] Historical events
    2007 Events

    June 13, 2007: There were 3,428 NYSE issues traded, with 96 New Highs and 95 New Lows, the common number equal to 2.77 percent of total issues traded, above the minimum requirement of 2.20 percent. The McClellan Oscil
  18. liebregts301 27 juli 2010 14:16
    Aardige redenering. Ik mis echter een ding. Zijn er gevallen, waarin het signaal wel gegeven is maar er geen daling plaatsvond en zo ja, hoe verhouden deze zich t.o.v. de signalen, die wel door een daling (of crash) gevolgd werden? Beantwoording van deze vraag levert een beter onderbouwd beeld op van de geloofwaardigheid van het signaal dan wat we in het artikel lezen, dunkt me.
61 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Word nu gratis lid of log in met je emailadres en wachtwoord.

Direct naar Forum

Markt Vandaag

Stijgers

instrument koers absoluut verschil relatief verschil
INPOST 17,890 +1,87 +11,67%
THEON INTERNAT 11,120 +0,52 +4,91%
Wereldhave 14,540 +0,30 +2,11%
Philips Koninklijke 27,320 +0,34 +1,26%
NSI 20,250 +0,20 +1,00%
RENEWI 7,600 +0,07 +0,93%
WDP 24,620 +0,22 +0,90%
RELX 41,700 +0,36 +0,87%
Sligro 12,820 +0,10 +0,79%
Eurocommercial Properties 24,500 +0,15 +0,62%
NN Group 44,890 +0,24 +0,54%
CTP 16,400 +0,06 +0,37%
PostNL 1,211 +0,00 +0,25%
KPN 3,757 +0,01 +0,24%
Vastned 24,350 +0,05 +0,21%
Ahold Delhaize 31,080 +0,06 +0,19%
DSM FIRMENICH AG 119,000 +0,20 +0,17%

Dalers

instrument koers absoluut verschil relatief verschil
ASML 681,000 -39,00 -5,42%
AMG Critical Materials N.V. 13,350 -0,71 -5,05%
Kendrion 12,340 -0,54 -4,19%
Alfen N.V. 12,120 -0,52 -4,08%
Basic-Fit 21,740 -0,92 -4,06%
Pharming 0,655 -0,03 -3,89%
EBUSCO HOLDING 0,964 -0,04 -3,65%
RANDSTAD NV 42,000 -1,56 -3,58%
SIGNIFY NV 20,460 -0,70 -3,31%
BESI 103,750 -3,50 -3,26%
PROSUS 32,315 -1,06 -3,18%
ASMI 533,800 -17,00 -3,09%
NX FILTRATION 4,590 -0,15 -3,06%
JDE PEET'S 20,540 -0,62 -2,93%
JUST EAT TAKEAWAY 12,400 -0,37 -2,86%
TomTom 4,904 -0,14 -2,79%
Brunel 8,700 -0,25 -2,79%
HEIJMANS KON 23,250 -0,65 -2,72%
Aperam 23,140 -0,62 -2,61%
Fugro 20,140 -0,50 -2,42%
TKH 35,640 -0,84 -2,30%
SHELL PLC 30,205 -0,70 -2,25%
BAM 3,550 -0,08 -2,20%
FASTNED 15,720 -0,34 -2,12%
Air France-KLM 8,050 -0,17 -2,12%
ForFarmers 3,055 -0,06 -2,08%
AALBERTS NV 33,540 -0,68 -1,99%
Sif Holding 12,220 -0,24 -1,93%
Nedap N.V. 56,200 -1,00 -1,75%
Galapagos 24,980 -0,42 -1,65%
AZERION 1,380 -0,02 -1,57%
Heineken 81,080 -1,26 -1,53%
Van Lanschot Kempen NV 39,900 -0,60 -1,48%
CM.COM 6,270 -0,09 -1,42%
AEX 879,29 -12,57 -1,41%
IMCD 146,900 -1,95 -1,31%
ALLFUNDS GROUP 5,135 -0,07 -1,25%
Akzo Nobel 57,640 -0,68 -1,17%
Avantium 1,788 -0,02 -1,11%
UMG 22,930 -0,25 -1,08%
ING 15,966 -0,17 -1,04%
Fagron 19,120 -0,20 -1,04%
ASCX 1.164,66 -11,83 -1,01%
ABN AMRO BANK N.V. 15,265 -0,14 -0,88%
Arcadis 63,850 -0,55 -0,85%
ArcelorMittal 20,000 -0,17 -0,84%
EXOR NV 97,400 -0,80 -0,81%
ADYEN NV 1.258,200 -10,20 -0,80%
B&S Group SA 4,570 -0,04 -0,76%
ACOMO 17,200 -0,12 -0,69%
SBM Offshore 16,100 -0,10 -0,62%
OCI 28,380 -0,16 -0,56%
AMX 881,61 -4,89 -0,55%
Aegon 5,420 -0,03 -0,55%
Corbion 23,420 -0,12 -0,51%
Wolters Kluwer 149,700 -0,60 -0,40%
ASR Nederland 44,130 -0,14 -0,32%
Accsys 0,648 0,00 -0,31%
Flow Traders 17,680 -0,04 -0,23%
Vopak 42,560 -0,08 -0,19%
UNILEVER PLC 59,080 -0,06 -0,10%
vlag naam koers verschil relatief verschil
AEX 879,29 -12,57 -1,41%
AEX GR 3.436,03 -49,10 -1,41%
Germany40^ 18.264,00 -37,90 -0,21%
FTSE 100 8.181,47 -60,24 -0,73%
EURO50 4.725,60 0,00 0,00%
US30^ 40.345,30 0,00 0,00%
Nasd100^ 18.411,70 0,00 0,00%
US500^ 5.408,62 0,00 0,00%
Japan225^ 35.246,90 0,00 0,00%
VD-NEW 19,41 +1,76 +9,97%
#/^ Index indications calculated real time, zie disclaimer