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lovelyrita 27 november 2008 09:22

By S. John Tilak and Purwa Naveen Raman

BANGALORE, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Navigation devices are likely

to fall out of favor with consumers this holiday season as

worsening economic conditions make the once hugely popular

gadgets more discretionary than ever.

As the holiday season kicks off this weekend -- popularly

known as the Black Friday weekend -- cautious consumers might

pick a single device that serves both as a phone as well as a

navigation device.

The larger portable navigation devices makers, Garmin Ltd

and Dutch rival TomTom, are expected to tide

over the crisis, but smaller players with weaker economies of

scale would have to pull back or even go out of business.

Only a year ago, it was a very different story. The PND

market was one of the fastest growing areas within consumer

electronics and the devices occupied top spots on holiday wish

lists of consumers.

But now the industry is facing a slowdown in growth for the

first time in its short history.

"You've got the credit crunch, you've got a squeeze on

consumers and you've also got a market that's moving from a high

growth phase to a maturing market," Strategy Analytics analyst

Joanne Blight said.

"And you've got smartphones coming in and taking in some of

the market away," she added.

Nokia and other handset makers have been

agressively adding GPS capabilities even to their low-end models.

While there is no doubt the market will take a blow, analysts

are unclear as to how deep the wounds would be.

"We're really entering terra incognita in terms of the

consumer, what he or she is going to act like in a season where

credit is tight and job security potentially is quivering and the

value of one's precious asset -- one's home -- is in precipitous

decline," Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner said.

"These are all questions that all consumers -- not just

consumers of GPS devices -- are having to weigh right now," he

added.

According to a recent survey by the National Retail

Federation, this Black Friday weekend could see 5 percent fewer

shoppers than last year.

Canalys analyst Caroline Chow said the portable navigation

device has always been perceived as a luxury product, not a

necessity, regardless of price.

"It's not like people need one, but it would be a

nice-to-have," Chow said.

This holiday season, consumers have a lower appetite for PNDs

compared with devices like HDTVs, blu ray players and

smartphones, which are expected to grow, said Mark Teitell of

Oliver Wyman.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Scott Sutherland expects

Garmin's revenue to fall 4 percent in the fourth quarter due to a

fall in prices even though he expects units to grow.

PRICE CUTS VERSUS GROWTH

Garmin Ltd and Dutch rival TomTom have

been more cautious on cutting prices since summer, as an

agressive price war earlier this year had crimped their margins.

But they might be forced to do so now, as a reluctance to cut

prices runs a risk of losing potential customers.

The basic models of TomTom and Garmin sell for below $100 at

present, almost half of what they used to sell at last year.

While the companies do not have pressure from a strong third

player in the market, the real threat comes from smarphones,

increasinly armed with navigation capabilities.

The number of smartphones with global positioning

system-capability overtook that of portable navigation devices in

the Europe, Middle East and Africa region in the third quarter,

figures from Canalys show.

Apart from Nokia's smartphones, Apple's iPhone 3G

and Research in Motion's BlackBerry Bold come

with GPS.

FUTURE BLEAK ANYWAY

This holiday season might signal the end of rapid growth that

marked the industry.

There's only a small proportion of consumers who have very

high demand for route guidance support, Blight said.

"I think all those people who did need route guidance have

bought them (PNDs) already," Blight said, refering to the North

American and European markets.

Garmin shares have lost more than 80 percent of their value

since the beginning of this year; TomTom shares are down 92

percent.

"So the credit crunch won't be an excuse for PND market

slowdown as it was happening anyway. The credit crunch will just

severely compound the problem for PND vendors," Blight said.

kriekfreak 27 november 2008 10:16

Wat een verschrikkelijke lay-out.

Beperktedijkbewaking 27 november 2008 10:43

Tja, Lovely Rita, 'meter-maid' (met dank aan de Beatles), what about TomTom?
In 1989 reed ik al rond in Eindhoven, als gast van Philips, met een voorloper van zo'n in-car navigatie-unit...
Men voorzag een grote toekomst, en ik ook.
MAAR: met beleggen heeft dat niks te maken.
Philips verkocht de zaak jaren later aan Mannesmann, 3x raden waarom, en die verkochten het weer..., etc.

Goddijn cs. van Tomtom zagen een business-opportunity, en wie zou ze dat kwalijk nemen? Ze hebben al lang gecashed.
Ook Teleatlas kende ik al 17 jr geleden. Had toen aandelen willen kopen. Maar toen ze naar de beurs gingen, vond ik ze te duur. Enfin, op eigen kracht hebben ze het niet gered.
'Uitvindingen' zijn even leuk, er kan even winst op gemaakt worden (zie Nokia), maar op de wat langere termijn worden het spelletjes van handige jongens.

Nu even een inside tip:
Tom2 wil realtime navigatie-adviezen gaan geven, dus incl. de actuele files.
Jawel, gebaseerd op de situatie van 30 min geleden. Ze gebruiken gegevens van reizigers die een traject al afgelegd hebben. Voorspellen kunnen ze niet, nog geen 15 min vooruit. Daar heb je dus weinig aan als je in je auto stapt.
Kan het beter? Ja, en die kennis is bij verkeersingenieurs (en RWS) in huis, niet bij Tom2.
Ik wacht dus maar even.. Al is Tom2 beleggingstechnisch wel erg hard afgestraft. Maar ja, inzicht is 1 ding, beleggen is andere koek...

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Zomaar twee journalisten met een mening.

lovelyrita

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kriekfreak

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