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Home  /   Forum   /   Koffiekamer   /   Goud / Zilver / Platina / Palladium - Deel 17

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Goud / Zilver / Platina / Palladium - Deel 17

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Pagina: «« 1 ... 81 82 83 84 85 ... 87 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  3. [verwijderd] 28 oktober 2008 20:21
    market-ticker.denninger.net/

    Oh No.... Foreign Debt Bought by The Fed

    And so it begins... and ends...

    "Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Korea Development Bank was approved by the Federal Reserve to sell as much as $830 million of commercial paper to the U.S. central bank."

    That's right - our Federal Reserve is no longer backstopping just our stuff, nor even "arranging swaplines" - now we're buying foreign commercial paper issued by a foreign bank controlled by a sovereign!

    Jesus.

    Yeah, I know that the South Koreans are our friends. So what?

    Exactly how far does our printing of Treasuries go?

    Now we're printing up Treasuries (taking on debt as America) to be able to buy up foreign bank commercial paper?

    I've seen stupid before. This is beyond stupid.

    Significantly so.

    We're not only crowding out our own commercial and private lending (if you haven't noticed mortgage rates continue to rise for this very reason) now we're taking down foreign debt, issuing Treasuries to provide the cash with which to buy foreign commercial paper issued not by a US company, but by a foreign development bank controlled by a foreign government!

    Folks, this is outrageous.

    Your government's ability to fund its operating debt through taxing you has now been co-opted by The Federal Reserve without a vote and without affirmation of Congress to prop up foreign banking interests.

    When we provide foreign aid to a nation Congress appropriates the money and approves of the uses to which it will be put.

    This is a blatant open-handed purchase of foreign debt obligating the US taxpayer to pay through his or her taxes the interest on the treasuries issued to cover that buy - without a vote of Congress.

    That's bad enough.

    What's worse is that our "crowding out" is now extending to foreign banking interests.

    Down this rabbit hole lies a dislocation in currency and bond markets.

    Ben Bernanke is going to cause a Global Depression.

    In fact, he may already have gone too far down the rabbit hole to prevent it from happening.

    By the way, to those in Congress who might be reading this, you may wish to note that Ben has committed four of his five "how do I stop a deflation" ideas already - and has failed to stop the deflation. The four are, in short:

    1. Buy assets (Bear Stearns debt, et.al.)
    2. Low fixed-term loans (e.g. TAF, TSLF, etc)
    3. Acquire real or financial assets (TARP anyone?)
    4. Treasury issues debt which the Fed then purchases with newly-minted money (Fed Balance sheet doubling anyone?)
    5. Announcing an explicit ceiling on long-maturity Treasury debt.

    Why is this last one important? Because all of this coupon printing (Treasuries) along with 1-4 is extraordinarily inflationary. I know, Ben said its not in his Congressional testimony. He's lying. It is. You doubt that? Go look at the price of 30 year mortgage money and what has happened to it in recent weeks. Longer-term debt is very sensitive to potential future inflation and will turn upward long before the inflation actually appears, because the lender is stuck with the note for the entire period.

    So how do you stop long maturity Treasuries from shooting the moon on yield?

    You announce that you are capping the yield through unlimited purchases of same.

    That is, you'll buy as many as you need (printing as many dollars as necessary) to hold the price high and yield low.

    There is one problem with this - it is insanely inflationary, especially when the government is running a fiscal deficit.

    In fact it virtually guarantees a "feedback" cycle that ultimately will destroy both the government and the monetary system.

    Here's why.

    We currently require about $2 billion a day in foreign flow of funds into our Treasuries to fund our government's operation. We have "gotten away with this" and "enjoyed" unreasonably low yields on long maturity government debt because we buy a lot of foreign things - most specifically Chinese toys and oil. As we do so these governments become awash in dollars - effectively, we are exporting our (monetary) inflation to them in return for their imported goods. To prevent this inflation from destroying their economy they "sterilize" these dollars by buying Treasury securities with them, thereby removing the dollars from circulation and dampening the inflationary impact.

    But if Bernanke were to try to cap long yields foreign investors would immediately tender their bonds into The Fed, destroying this external funding source.

    Why?

    Because all those dollars would devalue the currency, and in doing so foreign interests would take an immediate and permanent capital loss on their bonds, as the dollar would be worth fewer of their native currency units than it was prior to the "capping" expedition. To avoid this risk they would both cut off their purchases of future bonds (since the capped coupon would not reasonably compensate them for the inflationary risk) and tender their present stock, choosing to buy something else (oil, raw materials such as cement, some other government's debt, etc) with their foreign capital flows - something that is not subject to being devalued at whim.

    This would force The Fed into an untenable position - capping bond yields creates an instantaneous circle jerk, and the requirement for foreign funding makes the implosion both quicker and more violent than it would otherwise be.

    Treasury issues bonds into the market (too many for demand) and this depresses the price and jacks yields. To prevent yields from rising Bernanke monetizes them by buying them off the market to hold up prices and suppress yields, issuing dollars into the market in the process. This causes the total number of dollars in the system to rise (he must print the dollars with which to buy the Treasuries, and give that dollar to someone - either a holder or Treasury which presumably will spend it into the economy), which depresses the foreign trade value of a dollar. Prices for goods (imports especially!) rise precipitously, and holders of these bonds who can't tender them to The Fed sell them, mandating yet more Fed purchases and money printing to keep up the charade.

    The inflationary impact of the dollar issuance reduces discretionary spending which in turn reduces real GDP and tax receipts.

    That, in turn, forces Treasury to issue more debt to fund operations which......

    See the problem? This cycle immediately spirals out of control, leading to a Weimar Germany-type meltdown of the currency and Treasury funding path.

    Down this road lies the destruction of America's political and monetary systems.

    This is the problem with academics running their "theories" in the real world. In the real world Ben has discovered that his much-vaunted "liquidity pumping" leads to commodity price moon-shots, massive distortions in the corporate debt markets and rising (not falling!) mortgage rates.

    Ben's thesis says that none of these "side effects" should have happened, but of course the historical record says that they all did, because in the real world your sphere of influence doesn't extend to people beyond your borders or those whom you cannot compel to do your bidding, all of whom are free to act as they see fit.

    You've been warned Congress - Ben's "next trick", and the last of the five, is the one that can destroy this nation's political and monetary system.

    PS: I've been right about the impact of Be
  4. [verwijderd] 28 oktober 2008 20:32
    www.larouchepac.com/news/2008/10/23/p...

    Parasites In "Sheer Panic" At London Hedge Fund Conference
    Increase DecreaseParasites In "Sheer Panic" At London Hedge Fund Conference

    October 23, 2008 (LPAC)--"We've reached a situation of sheer panic," Nouriel Roubini told the parasites assembled at the Hedge 2008 conference in London. "Hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust." "Don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days," Roubini said.

    "This will go down in the history books as one of the greatest fiascos of banking in 100 years," said Emmanuel Roman, of hedge fund giant GLG Partners. "In a fairly Darwinian manner, many hedge funds will simply disappear," he added.

    The hedgies have good reason to be afraid, as the multi-quadrillion-dollar global derivatives market is collapsing and the so-called assets of the hedge funds and other speculators are vaporizing at an accelerating rate. As their assets disappear, the hedge funds and other derivatives players are being hit with margin calls on the money they borrowed to fund their leveraged bets, and facing redemption demands from the investors in their funds, who are being hit by the same crisis. This results in both waves of selling as they are forced to liquidate their holdings to meet their obligations, and a heavy demand for dollars to settle their accounts. The rise of the dollar in the recent period is one effect of this mad scramble, and serves a good marker for the turmoil in the largely hidden world of derivatives. Unfortunately for them, there are not nearly enough dollars in the system, despite the Fed's endless stream of bailout money, to allow most of them to cash out, leaving the fund managers and other speculators holding piles of funny money worth no more than the money in a game of Monopoly, or a pile of Confederate dollars.

    GLG's Roman predicted that some 25-30 percent of the hedge funds would disappear, but his supposedly gloomy forecast is actually rosy optimism, given what is coming. As the system continues to collapse, the speculators, be they funds, financial institutions or individuals, will be increasingly forced to sell assets to meet margin calls and other obligations, and those sales will further depress the markets. The relentless sell-off in global stock markets is perhaps the most visible aspect of this process, but relatively minor in scale compared to the derivatives problems. There is no bottom to this collapse--the financial system is in a death spiral, as each loss triggers even more losses, in an accelerating manner.

    This is what is causing the panic at the London hedge fund conference, as well it should. Bigger bailouts won't help, but will in fact only make the problem worse. The only solution is to shut the derivatives markets down completely, declaring all derivatives transactions null and void, and thereby eliminating all claims. The speculators reject this approach--when the solution is a flea dip, the fleas will never accept the solution--but we must clean up the mess these parasites have made, and that begins with shutting them down. They have failed, their system has failed, and it is past time to admit that, and let the adults take over. It is the only sane path.
  5. [verwijderd] 28 oktober 2008 20:35
    quote:

    mineworker schreef:

    [quote=23years]
    Beutel: Crude Could Hit $20 A Barrel

    Lijkt me dus tijd om olie in te slaan. Als men roept 200 moet je maken dat je er uit komt, maar nu ze fors naar benede kijken heb ik zo mijn vraagtekens of die 20 dollar wel gehaald gaat worden. Mijn eigen verwachting is eingelijk dat de 55 dollar de uiterste bodem gaat worden. Garantie tot de voordeur.
    [/quote]

    Nog niet zo heel lang geleden hoorden ik nog diverse analisten roepen dat 70 dollar de productieprijs was. Oftewel een ondergrens. Zal mij benieuwen of we lang op 55-60 dollar blijven staan.

    Ik dacht dat de makkelijk te winnen olie op was? Shell zit notabene miljoenen te verspillen in China om daar de mineralen uit de klei te trekken. (wat dus niet lukt)

    Dan moet de situatie wel erg hopeloos zijn. Of krijgen we nu zo'n enorme recessie waar zelfs 1930 niks bij was? Dat kan ik me nu ook weer niet voorstellen.

    Tijd voor een turbo'tje olie?
    Je ziet momenteel de OPEC al reageren op de afnemende vraag. De laatst ingebruik genomen olievelden kosten 70dollar per vat. Hoeveel velden hiervan momenteel al in productie zijn weet ik niet. Maar laat van de velden die in 2005 begonnen zijn met produceren de kostprijs eens op 50 dollar zitten, dan is de kans groot dat deze velden snel uit productie gehaald worden door de shells en bp van deze wereld. Het is slechts een kwestie van tijd. Ook moeten we niet vergeten dat de vraag wel afneemt, maar niemand weet hoeveel dit in procenten is. Niemand weet of de vraag harder afneemt dat de afname aan aanbod zijde. Als dit door grote partijen bekend gemaakt word, verwacht ik een langdurige prijs van 70 dollar per vat. Dit schaat de economie het minste. Zowel in de producerende als consumerende landen.
  8. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2008 00:05
    quote:

    fes schreef:

    Goud neemt alvast een voorsprong op het goedkope geld, welke de nog aanwezige schulden zullen verlichten en de neerwaartse spriraal op de beurzen zal stoppen.
    Lage rente en monetaire inflatie is de enige uitweg om de economie en de werkgelegenheid een beetje te beschermen.
    Jammer voor de pensioenen en de spaarcentjes.
    gr.fes
    Renteverlaging door de Fed van 1.5% naar?..Trichet moet volgen, ik herhaal hij moet!
    Het zal een bodem leggen.
    gr.fes

  9. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2008 00:25
    quote:

    fes schreef:

    [quote=fes]
    Goud neemt alvast een voorsprong op het goedkope geld, welke de nog aanwezige schulden zullen verlichten en de neerwaartse spriraal op de beurzen zal stoppen.
    Lage rente en monetaire inflatie is de enige uitweg om de economie en de werkgelegenheid een beetje te beschermen.
    Jammer voor de pensioenen en de spaarcentjes.
    gr.fes
    [/quote]

    Renteverlaging door de Fed van 1.5% naar?..Trichet moet volgen, ik herhaal hij moet!
    Het zal een bodem leggen.
    gr.fes

    Hee fesman!, had je de volkswagen raket al bekeken vandaag?, op zijn top 1300 euro voor 1 aandeeltje
  11. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2008 13:01
    quote:

    mineset schreef:

    [quote=vandervis]
    Ik hoor dat HBU geen fysiek goud meer kan leveren, op wat voor manier is het girale goud dan gedekt?
    [/quote]
    Ik ben klant bij HBU en weet hoe de girale goud dekking geregeld is....zolang de voorraad strekt.
    (staat in de voorwaarden)
    p.s.
    Ik heb wat plaatjes 999.9 fysiek in de kluis, die strax meer waard zijn dan de goudprijs. Worden zeer schaars omdat de uitgevende instantie niet meer bestaat/failliet is.
    Op die plaatjes staat U.B.S. (United Bank of Switserland)

    ;-) mineset
  14. jrxs4all 29 oktober 2008 13:47
    quote:

    mineset schreef:

    Volgens TIPS is de inflatie in de VS helemaal teruggezakt naar het niveau 1998.....1%
    Mmmmmm.....

    gr.mineset -clip + F11 toets-
    Het gaat niet zozeer om de inflatie nu, maar om de gemiddeld te verwachten inflatie over de looptijd van de TIPS.

    Deflatie zorgt voor een negatief rendement van deze obligaties. Er zit een stukje deflatiegevaar in verwerkt voor de nabije toekomst en dan een lage inflatieverwachting voor de jaren daarop.

    Wat ook meespeelt is dat er minder paniekaankopen van de TIPS zijn geweest ten opzichte van gewone staatsobligaties. Daardoor een hoger basisrendement en dus lagere TIPS spread,

    JR
  15. jrxs4all 29 oktober 2008 14:53
    quote:

    mineset schreef:

    Volgens TIPS is de inflatie in de VS helemaal teruggezakt naar het niveau 1998.....1%
    Mmmmmm.....

    gr.mineset -clip + F11 toets-
    Voorlopige cijfers, Duitse consumentenprijzen stijgen met 2,4%. Maar ... dat is op jaarbasis.

    Op maandbasis zijn de prijzen met 0,2% gezakt. En dat is nog maar het begin.

    De doorwerking van de geplofte grondstoffenbubble in de economie duurt een paar maand. Daar komt bij dat in een recessie bedrijven altijd al de neiging hebben om de prijzen te verlagen,

    JR
  16. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2008 21:58
    @ 22 years

    Wednesday, October 29, 2008
    World Will Struggle to Meet Oil Demand” is a front page headline in the Financial Times today.

    The gist of the article is that the first authoritative public study on the biggest oil fields has been completed. It shows that production is falling much faster than had been thought.
    The International Energy Agency authored a report entitled “World Energy Output” which states that “the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1%”.
    All I can say is WOW! This is much faster than anyone had thought.
    This means a lower long term supply of oil, and resulting higher long term prices for oil, coal and other energy sources.
    Add to this that not if but when Pakistan blows, oil will rise $100 in 60 days from whatever price it is at that time.

    Full article:
    ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/29/1...
  18. dutchtrader 29 oktober 2008 22:47
    Had WM het hier ook niet over een paar maanden geleden?

    quote:

    mineset schreef:

    @ 22 years

    Wednesday, October 29, 2008
    World Will Struggle to Meet Oil Demand” is a front page headline in the Financial Times today.

    The gist of the article is that the first authoritative public study on the biggest oil fields has been completed. It shows that production is falling much faster than had been thought.
    The International Energy Agency authored a report entitled “World Energy Output” which states that “the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1%”.
    All I can say is WOW! This is much faster than anyone had thought.
    This means a lower long term supply of oil, and resulting higher long term prices for oil, coal and other energy sources.
    Add to this that not if but when Pakistan blows, oil will rise $100 in 60 days from whatever price it is at that time.

    Full article:
    ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/29/1...
  19. jrxs4all 31 oktober 2008 18:03
    Ik heb het al vaker gezegd en deze columnist zegt het ook: kijk naar de obligatiemarkt, die heeft bijna altijd gelijk.

    MARK HULBERT

    Deflation vs. inflation
    Commentary: Deflation is more likely than many assume

    By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
    Last update: 11:59 p.m. EDT Oct. 30, 2008

    ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Is the gold market sensing deflation?

    It's important to ask this question, because something is most definitely bothering the gold market. Between Oct. 8 and Oct. 23 alone, for example, bullion dropped by some $225 per ounce. It dropped $15.50 per ounce on Thursday as well.

    No doubt there are lots of factors that are conspiring to bid gold down. One that I mentioned in a column a couple of weeks ago is sentiment among gold timing newsletters. See Oct.16 column

    I was prompted to consider deflation as another factor by recent developments in the Treasury market. That market is many orders of magnitude larger than the gold market, and its collective judgment cannot be dismissed lightly.

    And right now, the Treasury market considers inflation to be a far lower threat than it was just a couple of months ago.

    Consider the yields on regular nominal, Treasuries and those that prevail for the Treasury's Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS. The primary difference between these two kinds of Treasuries is that TIPS' yields are protected against changes in the inflation rate.

    Theoretically, at least, this means that the difference in these yields will reflect the bond markets' expectation of future inflation.

    As of Thursday night, the yield on 10-year regular Treasuries stood at 3.95%, according to the CBOE's 10-Year Treasury Yield Index. The yield on 10-year TIPS, in contrast, stood at 3.03%. The difference of 0.92 percentage points implies that the bond market is betting that the CPI will average less than 1 percent annually over the next decade.

    Inflation over the next decade of less than 1%? That seems incredible.

    To be sure, the flight to quality in recent weeks has undoubtedly skewed this number downwards. The market for regular Treasuries has received a disproportionate share of that flight to quality, artificially depressing the yields on 10-year Treasuries.

    Economists at the Cleveland Fed have devised an econometric model that estimates the degree to which the spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS is skewed downward by these liquidity considerations. That model recently calculated this bias to be around 0.5 percentage point, suggesting that the true message of the bond market right now is that inflation would average around 1.4% year over the next decade.

    That's still incredibly low, given that the CPI over the past 12 months was up 4.9%. It's unlikely that the CPI can start at nearly 5% and nevertheless average 1.4% over the next decade without it actually turning negative along the way.

    And that in effect means the bond market is betting on deflation.

    This puts into perspective the federal government's efforts in recent months to pour huge amounts of money into the financial arena. That would otherwise be quite inflationary.

    But not if the forces of deflation are as large as the bond market is evidently assuming them to be.

    And judging by the recent performance of both the bond and gold markets, it would appear as though deflation still has the upper hand.

    Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
1.725 Posts
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